Aggravated Assault

Robbery

Property Crimes

Auto Theft

Burglary

Larceny

–7.0%

–2.2%

2.7%

7.1%

0.05%

3.3%

–7.01

(1.14)**

–2.21

(1.33)

2.69

(0.72)**

7.14

(1.14)**

0.05

(0.76)

3.34

(0.89)**

–5.60

(1.25)**

1.17

(1.45)

5.84

(0.76)**

10.28

(1.24)**

4.12

(0.83)**

6.82

(0.82)**

bUsing Lott’s reconstruction of his original 1977-1992 data.

cUsing the revised new data set, which contains observations, 1977-2000, even though the estimates in this row use data only through 1992.

NOTE: All samples start in 1977. SE = standard error. Standard errors are in parentheses, where * = significant at 5% and ** = significant at 1%.

this is because there are many misprints in Table 4.8. Nonetheless, Lott’s and the committee’s results have the same signs for all crimes except aggravated assault. Row 3 displays estimates using the revised new data set restricted to the period 1977-1992. These new results tend to show larger reductions in the violent crime trends than those found using the revised original data.

Other Statistical Evaluations of Right-to-Carry Laws

Researchers have estimated the effects of right-to-carry laws using Lott’s or related data and models. Many of these studies have found that the use of plausible alternative data, control variables, specifications, or methods of computing standard errors, weakens or reverses the results. Tables 6-3 and 6-4 display estimates from selected studies that illustrate variability in the findings about the effects of right-to-carry laws. The committee does not endorse particular findings or consider them to provide better estimates of the effects of right-to-carry laws than do Lott’s results. Moreover, the committee recognizes that several independent investigators have used alternative models or data to obtain results that are consistent with Lott’s. These investigators include Bartley and Cohen (1998) and Moody (2001). We focus on the conflicting results in this section because they illustrate a variability of the findings that is central to the committee’s evaluation of their credibility.



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