TABLE 6-3 Summary of Selected Studies: Dummy Variable Model (percentage) (shaded cells indicate a positive coefficient)

Source

Modification

Violent Crime

Murder

Rape

Lott (2000)

Original specification and data

–5*

–8*

–5*

Moody

Unweighted

–6*

–4*

–5*

 

State-level analysis

–11

15

–22*

Duggana

County and time effects only

–1

–6

3

 

All counties

0

–1

6

Black and Nagin

Large counties

 

–9*

–4

 

Exclude Florida

 

–1

1

 

Florida

 

–27.7*

–17*

 

Georgia

 

–5.2

–5

 

Idaho

 

–21

–10

 

Maine

 

7.2

4

 

Mississippi

 

5.4

32*

 

Montana

 

–36.7

–97*

 

Oregon

 

–5.9

4

 

Pennsylvania

 

–8.9

4

 

Virginia

 

3.9

–8

 

West Virginia

 

72*

–29*

Plassmann and Tideman

No control for arrest rate

 

–7*

–6*

All counties

 

–2

–5

 

Count model (Poisson)

 

–11*

–4*

 

Florida

 

–24*

–16*

 

Georgia

 

–8*

–16*

 

Idaho

 

–6

10*

 

Maine

 

1

–2

 

Mississippi

 

5

11*

 

Montana

 

–7

–4

 

Oregon

 

–10*

–2

 

Pennsylvania

 

–5

14*

 

Virginia

 

8*

–3

 

West Virginia

 

5

–1

Ayres and Donohue (2003a)

State trends

0

–9*

–2

1977-1997 data

2

0

3

State level analysis

 

State and time effects only

–3

–8

–1

1977-1999 data

9*

–2

6*

Plassmann and Whitleya,b

Regional trend + others 1977-2000 data

–3

–6*

–7*

Ayres and Donohue (2003b)a,b

Regional trends + other controls 1977-2000 corrected data

0

–4

–5



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