Aggravated Assault

Robbery

Property Crimes

Auto Theft

Burglary

Larceny

–5.60

(1.25)**

1.17

(1.45)

5.84

(0.76)**

10.28

(1.24)**

4.12

(0.83)**

6.82

(0.82)**

3.05

(0.80)**

3.59

(0.90)**

11.48

(0.52)**

12.74

(0.78)**

6.19

(0.57)**

12.40

(0.55)**

–4.17

(1.54)**

9.18

(2.17)**

8.47

(0.79)**

11.98

(1.48)**

8.53

(0.94)**

8.56

(0.93)**

12.34

(0.90)**

19.99

(1.21)**

21.24

(0.53)**

23.33

(0.85)**

19.06

(0.61)**

22.58

(0.59)**

bUsing the revised new data set, which contains observations, 1977-2000, even though the estimates in this row use data only through 1992.

NOTE: All samples start in 1977. SE = standard error. Standard errors are in parentheses, where * = significant at 5% and ** = significant at 1%.

data constitute evidence of model misspecification (e.g., because the model cannot account for the change in the aggregate crime trend) and raise the possibility (although do not prove) that the estimated effects of right-to-carry laws are artifacts of specification errors. This is a particularly important concern because states that pass right-to-carry laws are not representative of the nation as a whole on important dimensions (e.g., percentage rural) that are correlated with rising crime in the 1977-1992 period and falling crime in the years 1993-2000.

The first row of Table 6-5 reports the results of extending the dummy variable model (6.1) to the new data covering the period 1977-2000. The specifications estimated are identical to the original model, with the only difference being that the number of years has been expanded. Compared with the model estimated on the original (1977-1992) sample period (see Table 6-5, Row 0), the results have now changed rather substantially. Only the coefficient on murder is negative and significant, while seven coefficients are positive and significant (violent crime overall, aggravated assault, robbery, property crime overall, auto theft, burglary, and larceny). The dummy variable results that were apparent with the earlier data set and



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