for workers over age 45 in 2001 are provided in Table A-4 in Appendix A, stratified by major industrial category, using the same CPS survey data for March 2001. The table includes the percentage of all employed persons who are older workers employed in the industry, the percentage of all older workers employed in the given industry, and the percentage of all workers in a given industry who are older workers.

A somewhat different picture is presented when the proportional distribution of older workers is examined. Of the four largest industrial categories by numbers employed, only educational services holds a rank amidst the four categories with the largest proportion of older workers overall. The three other top ranks by proportion are forestry/fishing/trapping, public administration, and mining. Greater differences in distribution by sex are seen in these proportional distributions. The four highest for women are all service industries: personal services, educational services, other medical services, and social services—although only educational services was among the highest overall. By contrast, for males the dominant industries were primarily physically demanding ones: mining, utilities, forestry/fishing/ trapping, communications, and agriculture.

Determining older-worker-intensive industries, then, is predicated on the question asked and whether gender is of interest. In addition, the industrial categories examined here are at the level of major categories; there may be differences (which should be researched to determine whether within-industry variance exceeds between-industry variance) at more detailed levels within categories.

Anticipated changes in employment for older workers. When examining older-worker-intensive industries, an important question concerns projections of future trends. Bureau of Labor Statistics projections are used to assess the likely trends in employment distributions in the future. These projections include rate of growth or decline in employment predicted for industries. The rates of change in employment projected for each industrial category through 2010 (see Berman, 2001) suggest the following:

  • Of the industries with high current numbers of older workers, none, except business-auto services, rank in the top four in terms of projected employment growth. In addition, of the other three, only educational services has a projected growth rate above the median for industries.

  • Of the industries with a high within-industry percentage of older workers, none ranks in the top four in terms of employment growth. Declines in employment in mining and forestry/fishing/trapping are projected; growth in educational services is projected to be above the median; and growth in public administration is projected to be below the median.

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