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REYKJAVI K AND BEYOND Deep Reductions in Strategic Nuclear Arsenals and the Future Direction of Arms Control Committee on international Security and Arms Control National Academy of Sciences NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1988

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This work was supported by a grant to the National Academy of Sciences from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. Library of Congress Catalogue Card No. 87-30193 ISBN 0-309-03799-9 Copyright A) 1988 by the National Academy of Sciences No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic, or electronic process, or in the form of phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval system, transmitted, or otherwise copied for public or private use, without written permission from the publisher, except for the purposes of official use by the United States Government. Printed in the United States of America

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Seminar Participants THE HoNoRAs~E FRED C. TKLE,* Under Secretary of Defense for Policy MARVIN L. GorDsERGER,: Director, Institute for Advanced Study; Former Chairman, Committee on International Security and Arms Control COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURIY AN D ARMS CONTROL Wo~FGANG K. H. PANoFsKY~ (Chairman), Director Emeritus, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University LEW ALLEN, JR., Director, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology Paul M. DoTY,t Director Emeritus, Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University ArExANDER H. F~Ax,l President Emeritus, Institute for Defense Analyses EDWARD A. FRIEMAN, Director, Scripps Institution of Oceanography RicHARD L. GARDEN, Science Advisor to the Director of Research, Thomas l. Watson Research Center, IBM Corporation SPURGEON M. KEENY, IR.,l President, Arms Control Association CATHERINE M. KELLEHER,! Director, Maryland International Security Project, University of Maryland JOSHUA LEDERsERG, President, Rockefeller University CLAIRE MAX, Associate Director, Institute of Geophysics ant! Planetary Physics, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory M~cHAE~ M. MAY, Associate Director at Large, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory R~cHARD A. Mu~rER, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, University of California JOHN D. STEINBRUNER,l Director, Foreign Policy Studies Program, Brookings Institution * Seminar speaker; declined to have his talk included in this publication. t Seminar speaker. , . . 111

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CHARLES H. TOWNES, Department of Physics, University of California at Berkeley JEROME B. WIESNER, consultant to chairman; Institute Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology WILLIAM GORDON, Ex Officio, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences VICTOR RABINOWITCH, Executive Director, Office of International Affairs, National Academy of Sciences LYNN RUSTEN, Director, Committee on International Security and Arms Control LAFAYE LEWIS, Senior Secretary, Committee on International Security and Arms Control IV

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Foreword Since its creation in ~ 864 the National Academy of Sciences has undertaken many studies and activities relating to matters of national security, and currently several committees of the National Research Council advise branches of the military on questions of scientific research. Other Academy com- mittees have studied topics such as nuclear winter and the contribution of behavioral and social sciences to the prevention of nuclear war. The Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) reflects the Academy's deep interest in international security and the potential of arms control to reduce the threat of nuclear war. Its members have been deeply involved in many aspects of military technology and arms control. They have advised several presidents and served in senior governmental posts; they have been involved in military research since the days of the Manhattan Project; they have header! universities and research centers; they have been involved with important arms control negotiations. The members of this committee have thought long and hard about national security issues. The committee has pursued a number of activities in response to its broad charter. Twice each year it meets with its counterparts from the Soviet Academy of Sciences to explore problems of v

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v FOREWORD international security and arms control. In response to the widely expressed interest of Academy members in learning more about issues and opportunities in arms control, it has convened a number of meetings and sessions on arms control specifically for them. In the spring of 1984 CISAC conclucted a major tutorial for over 200 Academy members. The background materials for that tutorial resulted in the book Nuclear Arms Control: Background and Issues, publisher! in 1985. CTSAC also conclucted a seminar on strategic defense in 1985 and cosponsored! one the following year on crisis management that resulted in the short publication Crisis Management in the Nuclear Age. In the spring of 1987 CISAC presented a seminar for the Academy audience that explorer} the implications of the proposals for very deep cuts in strategic nuclear arsenals that had been discussed by President Reagan and General Secretary Gorbachev at the Reykjavik summit in 1986. The committee felt that, whereas many people instinctively support the goal of significantly reducing arsenals, very little serious study had been done on what that wouIc! actually mean and on how very creep cuts would affect other aspects of the military balance and the political and international order more broadly. CTSAC members thus shared their initial thoughts on what changes in force structures, strategic thought, and political relations would be necessary to make possible large reductions in the superpowers' nuclear arsenals. Because the response to this seminar was so positive, ~ asked that the talks be collected in a small volume that could be shared with a wider audience. T believe this volume provides a useful starting point for thinking about how to tackle the difficult political and military issues that arise in contemplating the transition to a safer world with significantly fewer nuclear weapons- a goal that has been enunciated by both the American and Soviet leaders and embraced by citizens everywhere. T would like to express my great appreciation to the chairman and members of CISAC, some of whom contributed to this volume and all of whom dedicate much time and effort to the activities of the committee. ~ believe the committee continues to learn a great clear in the course of its work, and ~ hope that others will jucige that work, including this volume, to be useful in their own effort to understand! the role of arms control in reducing the threat of nuclear war. FRANK PRESS, President National Academy of Sciences

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Contents Reykjavik and Beyoncl: Implications of Deep Reductions in Strategic Nuclear Arsenals ant! the Future Direction of Arms Control Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky 2. The Purpose and Effect of Deep Strategic Force Reductions Tohn D. Steinbruner 1 1 - The Impact of Defenses on Offensive Reduction Regimes Spurgeon M. Keeny, Jr. 19 4. The Impact of New Techologies and Noncentral Systems on Offensive Reduction Regimes Alexander H. Flax 27 V11

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V111 CONTENTS 5. Alliance Issues Catherine M. Kelleher 34 6. Implications for Conventional Forces Paul M. Doty 7. The Future of Arms Control 46 Marvin L. Gol~lberger 58

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REYKJAVI K AND BEYOND

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