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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 � � � � � � 2 Marine Transportation Demand In its 1999 report, the federal Marine Transportation System (MTS) Task Force expressed concern that fast-growing demand in marine freight and passenger travel will challenge the capacity and functioning of this transportation system. It noted that “the total volume of domestic and international marine trade is expected to more than double over the next 20 years” (DOT 1999, viii). This estimate, equivalent to growth on the order of 3 to 4 percent per year, was derived largely from extrapolations of recent trends and near-term forecasts of the tonnage of waterborne cargo moved into and out of the country in international trade (DOT 1999, 25–28). However, significant variations were expected in the rate of growth among different freight segments. The fastest growth,

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 � � � � � � 3.5 percent per year on a tonnage basis, was predicted for goods moved in international trade (DOT 1999, 26). In comparison, bulk cargoes moved domestically on the inland waterways were projected to grow at 1.3 percent per year (DOT 1999, 27). In this chapter, these and other demand projections are reviewed in more detail to gain a better understanding of where the most dynamic growth in marine transportation demand is expected. In particular, consideration is given to forecasts of demand for the following freight sectors: Containerized cargoes shipped overseas, consisting primarily of manufactured and processed goods, as well as other kinds of general cargo moved in intermodal containers; Liquid bulk cargoes shipped overseas, consisting primarily of petroleum and chemicals moved by tankers; Dry bulk cargoes shipped overseas, consisting largely of agricultural products, coal, and iron ore; and Cargoes shipped domestically on the inland rivers and Great Lakes, consisting largely of dry bulk and liquid bulk commodities, much of it moved by barge. The discussion begins with an overview of current traffic volumes in each of these freight sectors. The major sources of long-range forecasts of traffic demand in each of these sectors are then examined. The chapter concludes with an assessment of possible implications of this forecast demand on the capacity and functioning of the MTS. CURRENT DEMAND The most commonly used measure of marine freight is tonnage. More than 2,300 million tons of cargo moved through the MTS, domestic and international, during 2000 (the latest year for which complete data are available). The breakdown by freight sector is shown in Table 2-1.

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 � � � � � � Table 2-1 U.S. Waterborne Cargo, 2000   Cargo (millions of tons) International ocean, total 1,290.2 Containership 156.5 Tanker 590.7 Dry bulk vessel 391.5 Other vessel 151.5 Domestic ocean and coastal, total 242.1 Self-propelled (mostly tanker) 135.6 Barge 106.5 Inland rivers and lakes, total 841.9 River barge 727.9 Great Lakes vessels 114.0 Total 2,374.2 Note: Original data converted from metric tons to short tons. Source: BTS 2002. On the basis of tonnage moved, barge traffic on the inland rivers represents the largest sector of the MTS; it accounts for about 30 percent of total tonnage transported. Most of the freight moved on the inland rivers consists of heavy bulk commodities, which leads to the high tonnage totals for this segment of the MTS. More than half the tonnage moved on the rivers, for instance, is from shipments of coal and petroleum. Bulk commodities are also predominant on the Great Lakes and in domestic ocean and coastwise shipping. The former consists of shipments of iron ore and coke, while the latter includes the traffic moved domestically along the Gulf Coast and between Alaska, Hawaii, and the U.S. mainland—much of it petroleum. Another way to measure traffic is by cargo value. Table 2-2 shows both the value and tonnage of cargo moved over the oceans in U.S. international trade. As might be expected, vessels carrying containers, which are used to transport high-value manufactured and processed items, account for a much higher proportion of traffic on the basis of value (about 67 percent) than on the basis of tonnage (less than 15 percent). FORECAST METHODS AND RESULTS Presenting an accurate picture of demand for marine freight transportation is complicated by differences in the kinds of freight moved, some of

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 � � � � � � Table 2-2 U.S. Waterborne Cargo in International Trade, 2002 Freight Sector Amount of Cargo (millions of tons) Value of Cargo ($ millions) Percent of Total Amount Value Containership 161.8 490,461 14.2 67.3 Liquid bulk (tanker) 602.0 109,303 52.9 15.0 Dry bulk vessel 373.5 128,616 32.9 17.7 Total 1,137.3 728,380 100.0 100.0 Source: U.S. Maritime Administration, Waterborne Databank (www.marad.dot.gov/marad_statistics). which are more easily and aptly measured by weight and others by value. Even more difficult is forecasting how demand for marine freight will change over time, particularly over the course of a decade or more. In the following discussion, some of the approaches used in forecasting demand and the major sources of these forecasts are reviewed. The forecast results are then reviewed, and their assumptions and uncertainties are considered. Common Forecasting Approaches The accuracy of longer-term projections of marine transportation demand hinges not only on an understanding of the basic drivers of demand, such as growth in the national economy and in international commerce, but also on many other factors that can be even more difficult to predict, such as changes in legislation and transportation technology. Such factors will, in time, have measurable effects on both the level and nature of transportation demand. Forecasters of marine transportation demand in the early 1950s, for instance, could not foresee the advent a decade later of containerization, which would quickly transform the way general cargo is transported and help spur even greater international trade. Despite such uncertainty, long-range demand forecasting is not a futile exercise. As long as transportation services require large-scale capital investments by the public and private sectors, demand forecasting will be required to support decision making. Forecasts are required for planning port facilities, making vessel and terminal investments, and regional and national economic planning. The key to using this information is understanding the sensitivities of forecasts to demand drivers and understanding how the forecasts themselves can go awry. In these

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 respects, long-range demand forecasting has advanced a great deal since the 1950s as computational capacity, modeling techniques, and information sources have improved. Basic kinds of forecasting methods are described in Box 2-1. Each has strengths and weaknesses. Some of the simpler methods that are based on few variables have the advantage of flexibility; decision makers find them easy to use for “what-if” scenario analyses. They may not be especially accurate, but they are capable of providing “ballpark” estimates for the initial stages of decision making. At the other end of the spectrum are complex forecasting models designed to provide detailed projections across many economic sectors and regions with a high degree of internal consistency (e.g., imports equal exports for all commodities on a global basis). They may be used to inform national policy making. Such complex multivariate modeling systems require large amounts of data and computer processing and a substantial amount of time from the modeler. Major Sources of Demand Forecasts Because the quantity of marine traffic is heavily influenced by international commerce, forecasts of international trade are especially important inputs in most marine freight forecasts. Similarly, projections of domestic and international energy demand, as well as the demand for agricultural commodities, are important. The major commercial and government suppliers of long-term trade and commodity forecasts tend to use the most sophisticated forecasting methods described in Box 2-1, which incorporate time series, constrained demand, and multivariate modeling approaches. These suppliers include Global Insight, Inc.,1 which forecasts trade in all major physical commodities (i.e., nonphysical commodities, such as electricity and services, are not included), across nearly all countries, and in detail by commodity, trade route, and vessel type (e.g., container, tanker, dry bulk); 1 Global Insight, Inc., is the combination of the formerly separate entities of DRI/McGraw Hill and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA).

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 Box 2-1 Common Methods of Demand Forecasting Constant growth rate forecasts: Sometimes referred to as “hockey stick” projections, these forecasts are driven by a posited growth rate that is expected to continue over the forecast horizon. Such unconstrained forecasts can lead to illogical projections over long periods of time (e.g., a projection based on a constant unconstrained reproduction rate could lead to a forecast of rabbits taking over the world). Constrained forecasts (based on the assumption of limited supply or demand): To overcome the limitations of constant growth rate forecasts, limits are imposed on growth rates to ensure reasonable results. Industrial analysis forecasts: The forecast is based on manufacturing capabilities, with industrial development and investment as the primary predictors of growth. Market research–based forecasts: Surveys of individual opinions, purchasing plans, and consumer expectations are used to develop growth rates and other information, on which the forecast is then based. Time series forecasts: Historical data are analyzed, typically on the basis of regression analyses, to predict future demand or supply. Critics of projections based on historical data liken them to driving a car by looking in the rearview mirror. Scenario forecasts: Scenario-based forecasts are based on a set of assumptions about future conditions. War gaming, such as that used by the Department of Defense, is an example of scenario-based forecasting. Simulation-driven (Monte Carlo) forecasts: Ranges of expected outcomes, rather than single data points, are used for inputs and combined into an expected outcome distribution. Simulation-driven forecasts can provide insight into the range of potential outcomes and their likelihood. Multivariate modeling forecasts: These forecasts develop an internally consistent model of future trade through the use of a large number of independent variables and multiple constraints. High-speed computers have facilitated the generation of these complex models, which are used for national and world trade models.

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy, which publishes the Annual Energy Outlook containing long-term forecasts of U.S. energy balances, including projected imports and exports of specific energy commodities (e.g., crude oil, coal, petroleum products, natural gas); and The Institute of Water Resources (IWR) of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), which projects demand for transportation on the nation’s waterways, including the inland waterways. Because bulk cargoes are the chief source of demand for inland waterways, IWR employs specialty consulting firms to develop long-range forecasts of agricultural products, minerals, energy, and other commodities moved in large quantities on inland waterways. Forecast Results Several forecasts from the preceding sources are examined in this section. They offer insight into the factors that can influence demand, and they illustrate the kinds of information that decision makers in the public and private sectors have at their disposal to plan for the future. Results from the latest (at the time of this study) 20-year forecasts from Global Insight, EIA, and USACE are presented at different levels of aggregation and across different demand sectors, starting with forecasts of all U.S. international trade and then focusing on specific categories of freight, including containerized cargo, energy, and agricultural commodities. International Trade (Total) Forecasts Global Insight’s forecasts are developed from dynamic trade models of supply and demand that cover more than 75 physical commodity types in each trading region of the world (currently encompassing 54 major countries and 16 regions). Factored into the models are current and projected exchange rates, price deflators, demographic trends, expected production capacities, and other relevant variables such as transportation costs. Forecasts for U.S. international trade in all commodity sectors are

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 � � � � � � Table 2-3 Forecasts of U.S. Internatinal Trade, All Cargo, 2000–2020, Global Insight, Inc. (February 2003)   Total U.S. Trade (millions of tons) Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) Percent Change 2000 2020 Exports 386 538 1.7 39.5 Imports 872 1,304 2.0 49.5 Total 1,258 1,842 1.9 46.5 Note: Original data converted from metric tons to short tons. Source: Personal communication with analysts from Global Insight, Inc., by Navigistics Consulting on behalf of the committee. shown in Table 2-3. The forecasts, which are based on tonnage, anticipate an average annual growth rate of 1.9 percent per year from 2000 to 2020. Total trade volume is thus projected to increase by nearly 50 percent over the forecast period. Container Trade Global Insight also forecasts growth in trade sectors. The firm’s most recent forecasts for U.S. containerized exports and imports are presented in Table 2-4. Cargo exported in containers, measured in 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), is expected to grow an average of 3.4 percent per year, while containerized imports are expected to grow an average of 5 percent per year. Containerized traffic overall is expected to grow 4.4 percent per Table 2-4 Forecast U.S. Trade in Containerized Cargo, 2000–2020, Global Insight, Inc. (February 2003)   Container Trade (thousands of TEUs) Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) Percent Change 2000 2020 Exports 8,133 15,946 3.4 96.1 Imports 12,217 32,455 5.0 165.7 Total 20,350 48,401 4.4 137.8 Note: Figures exclude domestic containerized trade among the contiguous 48 states, Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. Source: Personal communication with analysts from Global Insight, Inc., by Navigistics Consulting on behalf of the committee.

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 � � � � � � year. At this pace, traffic would double in about 15 years and increase by more than 135 percent over two decades. Energy (Liquid and Dry Bulk) Trade EIA’s latest Annual Energy Outlook (2003) contains petroleum import and export forecasts for the next two decades. The 2020 forecasts are shown in Table 2-5. The largest gains are expected for petroleum product imports, which are projected to grow 4 to 5 percent per year. Crude oil imports, which account for most of the petroleum trade, are expected to grow less than 2 percent per year on average, resulting in a 40 percent increase in import levels from 2000 to 2020. The quantity of petroleum exports is relatively small and is not expected to change much during the period. EIA 20-year forecasts of imported and exported natural gas (which is moved mostly in liquefied natural gas tankers) and coal are shown in Table 2-6. Natural gas imports are forecast to grow at a rate of about Table 2-5 Forecast U.S. Petroleum Trade, 2000–2020, EIA (January 2003)   Petroleum Trade (millions of tons) Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) Percent Change 2000 2020 Crude imports 496.2 695.7 1.7 40.2 Product imports 119.3 301.7 4.7 152.8 Product exports 54.2 58.9 0.4 8.6 Total 669.7 1,056.3 2.3 57.7 Note: Pipeline volumes from Canada are included in the figures. Source: EIA 2003. Table 2-6 Forecasts of U.S. Coal and Natural Gas Trade, 2000–2020, EIA (January 2003)   Energy Tradea Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) Percent Change 2000 2020 Coal exports 38.5 18.7 −3.6 −51.5 Natural gas imports 97.4 182.0 3.2 86.9 Natural gas exports 6.2 10.4 2.6 67.7 aMillions of tons of coal; millions of tons of natural gas in oil equivalent units. Source: EIA 2003.

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 � � � � � � 3.2 percent per year during the period, which would lead to a near doubling. In comparison, the quantity of coal exported is expected to decline in absolute terms as more of the country’s domestic production is used internally (coal imports are insignificant and are expected to remain so). Inland Waterway Forecasts USACE projections of freight traffic on the inland waterway system (to 2020) are summarized in Table 2-7. These projections, made in 1995 and 1998, are cited in the 1999 MTS Task Force report (DOT 1999). They anticipate 1.3 percent annual growth in the total volume of cargo transported on the inland waterways. The tonnage of all types of cargoes is expected to grow at a rate of 1 to 2 percent per year. Total annual tonnage moved on the inland waterways is expected to increase by 26 percent during the 20-year period. More recent forecasts were released by USACE in July 2002. These forecasts, shown in Table 2-8, are for shipments only on the Upper Mississippi River. The magnitude of predicted change (23 percent) in traffic volumes is consistent with the 1995 and 1998 USACE forecasts for the inland waterway system as a whole. Table 2-7 Forecasts of Commodity Traffic on the Inland Waterway System, 1995/1998–2020 Commodity Group Traffic (millions of tons) Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) 1995–1998 Weighted Average 2020 Farm products 87.9 124.2 1.6 Metals 30.9 44.7 1.7 Coal 175.2 222.2 1.1 Crude petroleum 43.4 53.8 1.0 Nonmetallic minerals 99.9 139.9 1.5 Forest products 17.9 21.9 0.9 Industrial chemicals 41.7 65.0 2.0 Agricultural chemicals 12.2 14.9 0.9 Petroleum products 111.5 138.2 1.0 Other 11.2 11.1 −0.1 Total 631.8 835.9 1.3 Source: USACE 1995 and 1998 projections cited in DOT 1999, 27.

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 � � � � � � Table 2-8 Forecasts of Commodity Traffic on the Upper Mississippi River, 2000–2025, USACE Central Scenario (July 2002) Commodity Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) Percent Change Farm products 1.5 34.5 Coal and coke 0.2 4.9 Petroleum products 0.5 10.6 Agricultural chemicals −0.3 −6.5 Construction materials 0.4 9.0 Industrial chemicals 2.0 48.8 Iron and steel 0.5 10.9 Miscellaneous 1.5 34.0 Total 1.0 23.2 Source: USACE 2002, Tables 12 and 17. Summary of Forecast Results Table 2-9 summarizes the results of these major forecasts of marine transportation demand to 2020. What is most apparent from this comparison is the expectation for continued high rates of growth in container traffic. Much more modest growth is anticipated for the dry and liquid bulk commodities shipped overseas and on the inland waterways. FORECASTING ASSUMPTIONS AND CONFIDENCE A common assumption of models forecasting high growth in container traffic is that international commerce will flourish, populations will Table 2-9 Summary of Major Forecasts of Waterborne Cargo, 2000–2020 Sector Units Traffic Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) Percent Change Source 2000 2020 Total ocean             (international) Million tons 1,143.4 1,674.5 1.9 46 Global Insight Container TEUs (thousands) 20,350 48,401 4.4 138 Global Insight Petroleum Million tons 669.7 1,056.3 58 2.3 EIA Dry bulk Million tons 355.9 444.0 1.1 25 Global Insight Total inland river Million tons 661.7 836.0 1.3 26 USACE

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 � � � � � � increase, and incomes will rise worldwide, all of which will cause trade in manufactured goods to grow. Most forecasts assume that the U.S. economy will expand at an average annual rate of 3 percent during the period, causing gross domestic product to nearly double. In its middle-series estimates, the U.S. Bureau of the Census projects the national population to increase by 50 million between 2000 and 2020.2 By themselves, the assumed increases in national income and population explain a great deal of the expected growth in international trade and thus the anticipated strong growth in container trade. Of course, other assumptions are embedded in the forecast models. Some are especially difficult to model, including the following: The occurrence of “shocks,” such as enduring droughts, political upheaval, and war. Although such shocks do occur, their timing, magnitude, and effects are largely unpredictable; hence, long-range forecasts do not take them into account. Rapid and large-scale changes in the political and economic systems of China, for instance, could yield such “shocking” effects on international commerce, and thus on the demand for marine transportation. The introduction of new technologies that have transforming effects on the pattern and level of marine transportation demand. Complex demand models do assume that evolutionary changes in technologies will make transportation services less expensive over time. The models, however, do not have good ways of accounting for the occurrence and impact of dramatic technological changes. The widespread introduction of intermodal containers in the 1960s (sometimes referred to as the “container revolution”) is a good example of how technological change can transform marine transportation demand. Major changes in consumer preferences. The fundamentals of consumer behavior are well understood; for instance, consumers tend to purchase more of a good as its price falls. Nevertheless, preferences for 2  www.census.gov/population/projections/nation/summary/np-t1.pdf.

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 � � � � � � particular goods can change, causing some to become more or less in demand over time. The most complex demand models tend to work on a life-cycle basis that incorporates consumer sentiment indices to account for changing consumer preferences. However, consumer preferences can change in unanticipated ways. As an example, during the 1970s, Americans began purchasing foreign-made automobiles and electronics at much higher rates than previously. Many factors accounted for this change, including greater acceptability of foreign-made goods as perceptions of poor product quality diminished. Major changes in trade policies. Substantial changes in tariffs or trade embargoes with major trading countries are examples of government policies that could have direct impacts on the demand for marine transportation services. Such changes, and the precipitating factors, can be unpredictable. In addition to these uncertainties, demand modelers must make assumptions about a range of other factors, such as rates of borrowing and savings and demographic trends. Given the size and complexity of world trade, the influence of any one of these “macro” factors can have far-reaching effects on forecast accuracy. Moreover, the compounding effects of even small variations in rates of growth can have large effects on the aggregate growth levels predicted over time. For example, an actual growth rate in container trade that is just one-quarter of a percentage point lower or higher than the forecast rate can lead to predictions of traffic growth that are off by tens of millions of TEUs in a matter of 20 years. Finally, the human element of forecasting must be taken into account, because published forecasts are often influenced by perceptions of what seems reasonable. Sometimes forecast results, no matter how well modeled, do not appear realistic to decision makers, causing forecasters to make adjustments. Often, the adjustments are intended to reduce the forecast rate of growth; however, they can also be made to increase it. As an example of the former, in 1987 the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 � � � � � � Table 2-10 Example of Past Long-Term Cargo Forecast Compared with Actual Volumes, All Cargo and Containerized Cargo Only   Amount of Cargoa Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) Percent Change 1985 2000 All Cargo         WEFA 1987 forecast 675 1,178 3.8 74.4 Actual 675 1,393 4.9 106.4 Containerized Cargo Only         WEFA 1987 forecast 5,893 12,125 4.9 105.8 Actual 5,893 20,350 8.6 245.3 Note: Figures exclude seaborne domestic traffic (e.g., shipments between U.S. mainland and Alaska, Hawaii, and U.S. territories). aFor all cargo, amounts are in millions of tons; for containerized cargo only, amounts are in thousands of TEUs. Source: WEFA (San Pedro Bay Cargo Forecasting Project 2020, December 1987). (as part of the San Pedro Bay 2020 Plan for capital development) cosponsored projections of total U.S. oceanborne trade for 1985 to 2000, as well as forecasts of containerized trade. These forecasts, performed by WEFA for the period 1985 to 2000, are shown in Table 2-10. They are compared with actual traffic volumes during the period. The 1987 forecasts substantially underestimated traffic growth, especially for container movements. More than 15 years later, it is difficult to know all the factors contributing to this inaccuracy. However, participants in this forecasting effort recall initial growth projections that were considerably higher (and of a magnitude comparable with actual levels). These high-growth forecasts were not used out of concern that they would be viewed as too high to be credible.3 Because they necessarily involve many assumptions and uncertainties, all forecast models present a series of scenarios from which policy makers must choose in making long-range plans and decisions. Most forecasts are accompanied by sensitivity analyses to provide a range of possible outcomes. Moreover, the development and refinement 3 Personal recollection of study committee member involved in the forecasting project.

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 � � � � � � of forecasting models compel evaluation of the many factors that can influence marine transportation demand, including differing constraints on the supply of marine transportation services and capacity. Although the understanding gained from modeling can never be comprehensive, it can help inform both public and private decision making. SUMMARY ASSESSMENT The 1999 MTS Task Force report raises concern that a doubling of demand for marine freight during the next two decades will severely tax the capacity of the MTS. Long-range forecasts, however, suggest the importance of focusing on different components of demand. Rising incomes and escalating trade in manufactured goods are factors driving demand for the movement of marine containers. Of all the segments of the MTS, the container segment has the greatest potential for growth. Forecasts indicate that international container traffic could continue to grow at a rate of 4 to 5 percent annually, which would cause a doubling during the next two decades. It could grow at an even faster rate. The capacity of the MTS to handle such growth is therefore likely to become a greater concern for both industry and government. Growth in international container traffic at the rate forecast could necessitate new physical infrastructure, which will take many years to complete, as well as improvements in the management and efficiency of these assets. Traffic in bulk shipments moved on the inland rivers and lakes is expected to grow at a more modest pace of 1 to 2 percent per year. However, much of the infrastructure on these systems is old and, in some cases, outmoded. Even relatively modest growth in traffic levels on these systems—producing 20 to 40 percent increases in volumes in 20 years— will further tax many parts of this federal infrastructure system. Many factors have the potential to influence marine transportation demand, including some that cannot be predicted or planned for. History suggests the importance of adaptability and flexibility in meeting marine transportation demand.

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The Marine Transportation System and the Federal Role: Measuring Performance, Targeting Improvement - Special Report 279 � � � � � � REFERENCES Abbreviations BTS Bureau of Transportation Statistics DOT U.S. Department of Transportation EIA Energy Information Administration USACE U.S. Army Corps of Engineers BTS. 2002. Maritime Trade and Transportation ‘02. U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C. DOT. 1999. An Assessment of the U.S. Marine Transportation System—A Report to Congress. Washington, D.C., Sept. EIA. 2003. Annual Energy Outlook 2003. Report DOE/EIA-0383. U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. USACE. 2002. Interim Report for the Restructured Upper Mississippi River–Illinois Waterway System Navigation Feasibility Study. Washington, D.C., July.