3.5 percent per year on a tonnage basis, was predicted for goods moved in international trade (DOT 1999, 26). In comparison, bulk cargoes moved domestically on the inland waterways were projected to grow at 1.3 percent per year (DOT 1999, 27).

In this chapter, these and other demand projections are reviewed in more detail to gain a better understanding of where the most dynamic growth in marine transportation demand is expected. In particular, consideration is given to forecasts of demand for the following freight sectors:

• Containerized cargoes shipped overseas, consisting primarily of manufactured and processed goods, as well as other kinds of general cargo moved in intermodal containers;

• Liquid bulk cargoes shipped overseas, consisting primarily of petroleum and chemicals moved by tankers;

• Dry bulk cargoes shipped overseas, consisting largely of agricultural products, coal, and iron ore; and

• Cargoes shipped domestically on the inland rivers and Great Lakes, consisting largely of dry bulk and liquid bulk commodities, much of it moved by barge.

The discussion begins with an overview of current traffic volumes in each of these freight sectors. The major sources of long-range forecasts of traffic demand in each of these sectors are then examined. The chapter concludes with an assessment of possible implications of this forecast demand on the capacity and functioning of the MTS.

The most commonly used measure of marine freight is tonnage. More than 2,300 million tons of cargo moved through the MTS, domestic and international, during 2000 (the latest year for which complete data are available). The breakdown by freight sector is shown in Table 2-1.