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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This project was supported by Grant No. 01-0008 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project.
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Cover design: The National Academies Press. The image is of a hen salmon from the Penobscot River painted by Walter H. Rich and is reprinted with permission of the Museum of Science, Boston, from Kendall, W.C., The Fishes of New England: The Salmons, 1935.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council
COMMITTEE ON ATLANTIC SALMON IN MAINE
Members
MICHAEL T. CLEGG (Chair),
University of California, Riverside
PAUL K. BARTEN,
University of Massachusetts, Amherst
IAN A. FLEMING,
Oregon State University, Corvallis
MART R. GROSS,
University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario
LEWIS S. INCZE,
University of Southern Maine, Portland
ANNE R. KAPUSCINSKI,
University of Minnesota, St. Paul
PATRICK Y. O’BRIEN,
ChevronTexaco Energy Technology Company, Richmond, CA
BARBARA NEIS,
Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Newfoundland
NILS RYMAN,
Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
PETER E. SMOUSE,
Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ
JENNIFER L. SPECKER,
University of Rhode Island, Narragansett
ROBERT R. STICKNEY,
Texas A & M University, College Station
JON G. SUTINEN,
University of Rhode Island, Kingston
Staff
DAVID POLICANSKY, Project Director
SUSAN ROBERTS, Director, Ocean Studies Board
RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Senior Editor
MIRSADA KARALIC-LONCAREVIC, Research Associate
LEAH L. PROBST, Research Associate
JENNIFER SAUNDERS, Research Associate
BRYAN SHIPLEY, Research Associate
JOHN BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
SAMMY BARDLEY, Library Assistant
Sponsor
NATIONAL FISH AND WILDLIFE FOUNDATION
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY
Members
JONATHAN M. SAMET (Chair),
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
DAVID ALLEN,
University of Texas, Austin
THOMAS BURKE,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
JUDITH C. CHOW,
Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV
COSTEL D. DENSON,
University of Delaware, Newark
E. DONALD ELLIOTT,
Willkie, Farr & Gallagher, LLP, Washington, DC
CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD,
Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford, CA
WILLIAM H. GLAZE,
Oregon Health and Science University, Beaverton
SHERRI W. GOODMAN,
Center for Naval Analyses, Alexandria, VA
DANIEL S. GREENBAUM,
Health Effects Institute, Cambridge, MA
ROGENE HENDERSON,
Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, NM
CAROL HENRY,
American Chemistry Council, Arlington, VA
ROBERT HUGGETT,
Michigan State University, East Lansing
BARRY L. JOHNSON,
Emory University, Atlanta, GA
JAMES H. JOHNSON,
Howard University, Washington, DC
JUDITH L. MEYER,
University of Georgia, Athens
PATRICK Y. O’BRIEN,
ChevronTexaco Energy Technology Company, Richmond, CA
DOROTHY E. PATTON,
International Life Sciences Institute, Washington, DC
STEWARD T.A. PICKETT,
Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY
ARMISTEAD G. RUSSELL,
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
LOUISE M. RYAN,
Harvard University, Boston, MA
KIRK SMITH,
University of California, Berkeley
LISA SPEER,
Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, NY
G. DAVID TILMAN,
University of Minnesota, St. Paul
CHRIS G. WHIPPLE,
Environ Incorporated, Emeryville, CA
LAUREN A. ZEISE,
California Environmental Protection Agency, Oakland, CA
Senior Staff
JAMES J. REISA, Director
DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Scholar
RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Officer for Environmental Sciences and Engineering
KULBIR BAKSHI, Senior Program Officer for Toxicology
ROBERTA M. WEDGE, Senior Program Officer for Risk Analysis
K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer
SUSAN N.J. MARTEL, Senior Program Officer
SUZANNE VAN DRUNICK, Senior Program Officer
EILEEN N. ABT, Senior Program Officer
ELLEN K. MANTUS, Senior Program Officer
RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Senior Editor
OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
Members
NANCY RABALAIS (Chair),
Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, Chauvin
LEE G. ANDERSON,
University of Delaware, Newark
WHITLOW AU,
University of Hawaii, Manoa
ARTHUR BAGGEROER,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
RICHARD B. DERISO,
Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, La Jolla, CA
ROBERT B. DITTON,
Texas A&M University, College Station
EARL DOYLE,
Shell Oil (retired), Sugar Land, TX
ROBERT DUCE,
Texas A&M University, College Station
PAUL G. GAFFNEY, II,
Monmouth University, Long Branch, NJ
WAYNE R. GEYER,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA
STANLEY R. HART,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA
RALPH S. LEWIS,
Connecticut Geological Survey (retired), Hartford
WILLIAM F. MARCUSON, III,
U.S. Army Corp of Engineers (retired), Vicksburg, MS
JULIAN MCCREARY, JR.,
University of Hawaii, Honolulu
JACQUELINE MICHEL,
Research Planning, Inc., Columbia, SC
JOAN OLTMAN-SHAY,
Northwest Research Associates, Inc., Bellevue, WA
ROBERT T. PAINE,
University of Washington, Seattle
SHIRLEY A. POMPONI,
Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution, Fort Pierce, FL
FRED N. SPIESS,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA
DANIEL SUMAN,
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, FL
Staff
SUSAN ROBERTS, Director
JENNIFER MERRILL, Senior Program Officer
DAN WALKER, Senior Program Officer
JOANNE BINTZ, Program Officer
ALAN B. SIELEN, Visiting Scholar
ANDREAS SOHRE, Financial Associate
SHIREL SMITH, Administrative Coordinator
OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY
Air Quality Management in the United States (2004)
Endangered and Threatened Fishes in the Klamath River Basin: Causes of Decline and Strategies for Recovery (2004)
Cumulative Environmental Effects of Alaska North Slope Oil and Gas Development (2003)
Estimating the Public Health Benefits of Proposed Air Pollution Regulations (2002)
Biosolids Applied to Land: Advancing Standards and Practices (2002)
The Airliner Cabin Environment and Health of Passengers and Crew (2002)
Arsenic in Drinking Water: 2001 Update (2001)
Evaluating Vehicle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance Programs (2001)
Compensating for Wetland Losses Under the Clean Water Act (2001)
A Risk-Management Strategy for PCB-Contaminated Sediments (2001)
Acute Exposure Guideline Levels for Selected Airborne Chemicals (4 volumes, 2000–2004)
Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury (2000)
Strengthening Science at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2000)
Scientific Frontiers in Developmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment (2000)
Ecological Indicators for the Nation (2000)
Waste Incineration and Public Health (1999)
Hormonally Active Agents in the Environment (1999)
Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter (4 volumes, 1998–2004)
Arsenic in Drinking Water (1999)
The National Research Council’s Committee on Toxicology: The First 50 Years (1997)
Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet (1996)
Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest (1996)
Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995)
Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995)
Biologic Markers (5 volumes, 1989–1995)
Review of EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (3 volumes, 1994–1995)
Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994)
Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993)
Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992)
Science and the National Parks (1992)
Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991)
Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991)
Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990)
Copies of these reports may be ordered from the National Academies Press
(800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313
OTHER REPORTS OF THE OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
Elements of a Science Plan for the North Pacific Research Board (2004)
A Geospatial Framework for the Coastal Zone: National Needs for Coastal Mapping and Charting (2004)
Future Needs in Deep Submergence Science: Occupied and Unoccupied Vehicles in Basic Ocean Research (2004)
Cooperative Research in the National Marine Fisheries Service (2004)
Non-Native Oysters in the Chesapeake Bay (2004)
Enabling Ocean Research in the 21st Century: Implementation of a Network of Ocean Observatories (2003)
The Decline of the Steller Sea Lion in Alaskan Waters: Untangling Food Webs and Fishing Nets (2003)
Oil in the Sea III: Inputs, Fates, and Effects (2003)
Ocean Noise and Marine Mammals (2003)
Environmental Information for Naval Warfare (2003)
Exploration of the Seas: Voyage into the Unknown (2003)
Spills of Emulsified Fuels: Risks and Responses (2002)
Science and Its Role in the National Marine Fisheries Service (2002)
Marine Biotechnology in the Twenty-First Century: Problems, Promise, and Products (2002)
Effects of Trawling and Dredging on Seafloor Habitat (2002)
A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study (2002)
Marine Protected Areas: Tools for Sustaining Ocean Ecosystems (2001)
Recruiting Fishery Scientists: Workshop on Stock Assessment and Social Science Careers (2001)
Challenges in Ocean Policy (2001)
Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (2001)
Clean Coastal Waters (2000)
Marine Mammals and Low-Frequency Sound: Progress Since 1994 (1996, 2000)
Oceanography and Mine Warfare (2000)
Opportunities for Environmental Applications of Marine Biotechnology: Proceedings of the October 5–6, 1999, Workshop (2000)
Improving the Collection, Management and Use of Fisheries Data (2000)
Illuminating the Hidden Planet: The Future of Seafloor Observatory Science (2000)
Bridging Boundaries Through Regional Marine Research (2000)
50 Years of Ocean Discovery (2000)
The Community Development Quota Program in Alaska and Lessons for the Western Pacific (1999)
Sustaining Marine Fisheries (1999)
Sharing the Fish (1999)
Science for Decisionmaking (1999)
Global Ocean Science (1999)
From Monsoons to Microbes: Understanding the Ocean’s Role in Human Health (1999)
Building Ocean Science Partnerships: The United States and Mexico Working Together (1999)
Review of Northeast Fishery Stock Assessments (1998)
Opportunities in Ocean Sciences: Challenges on the Horizon (1998)
Improving Fish Stock Assessments (1998)
The Global Ocean Observing System (1997)
Oceanography and Naval Special Warfare (1997)
Proceedings of the Symposium on Tactical Meteorology and Oceanography (1996)
Expanding the Uses of Naval Ocean Science and Technology (1996)
Science, Policy, and the Coast (1995)
Improving Interactions Between Coastal Science and Policy: Proceedings of the Gulf of Maine Symposium (1995, 1996)
Copies of these reports may be ordered from the National Academies Press
(800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313
Preface
Atlantic salmon are symbolic of a time when the biological endowment of the eastern United States was richer and more diverse than today. These impressive fish were once abundant in the rivers of Maine, and their range extended south and west as far as the Connecticut River and perhaps even to the Hudson River. Today the distribution of wild Atlantic salmon in the eastern United States is restricted to a few rivers of Maine where total annual runs are numbered in hundreds of fish rather than the tens or perhaps hundreds of thousands of the past.
In the year 2000, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Marine Fisheries Service listed Maine Atlantic salmon as an endangered species under the distinct population segment language of the Endangered Species Act (ESA). This decision has the potential to trigger regulatory actions that might have economic impacts on agriculture, aquaculture, forestry, and other activities in Maine.
This National Research Council committee was asked to describe what is known about the genetic makeup of Atlantic salmon in Maine, and we did so in a report issued in January 2002. We were also asked to assess the causes of decline and to suggest strategies for the rehabilitation of Atlantic salmon in Maine. This document responds to that latter charge.
To set the stage, we must consider the remarkably complex life cycle of Atlantic salmon. This is a species that is exquisitely adapted to two very different environments. Adult fish mature in an ocean environment and then return to their natal freshwater streams to breed. The newly emerged fry develop, and after a period in their natal streams, the fish go
down river to the ocean where they must transition to a very different physiological state as they enter the ocean environment. The fish migrate as far as the western coast of Greenland, and after approximately 2 years the surviving adult fish return to their natal streams to breed, thus completing the cycle. Unlike their Pacific relatives, a small number of Atlantic salmon may once again return to the ocean to repeat the cycle. The basic problem is that too few adult fish now return to maintain a stable population, and the present demographic trajectory appears to predict extinction of Atlantic salmon in Maine.
Obviously, the current plight of Atlantic salmon in Maine cannot be discussed in isolation. They are embedded in a larger biological and physical system that is highly dynamic and is in part responding to imperfectly understood global processes of change. Global climate systems have fluctuated over the past 100,000 years, and the range of Atlantic salmon must have expanded and contracted repeatedly in response to those larger forces. The history of European colonization of North America coincides first with a cooling of climate associated with the little ice age and then with a subsequent warming period that is still in progress. These global factors are superposed on many regional and local influences. For example, most Maine rivers are dammed, often multiple times, denying suitable spawning habitat. Industrial logging and agricultural activities have influenced local watersheds, stream quality, and stream flow regimes. Acid rain from regional industrial activity has also affected stream quality. Yet many of these factors have improved over the past quarter century in response to environmental legislation and to changing industrial and land-use patterns. The biological community has also changed, owing to introductions of nonnative species and concomitant ecological shifts driven by the changing physical setting. Fishing was once a serious cause of mortality, but that is now much reduced by prohibitions on fishing, both in Maine’s rivers and in the ocean, although some mortality might still occur as the result of bycatch with other fishing activities. Thus, the picture appears to be one of gradual environmental improvement. Despite that, populations of Atlantic salmon in Maine are still declining.
Clearly, a large number of potentially interacting factors impinge on the fate of Maine Atlantic salmon. There are very few quantitative data on the impacts of most of these factors on salmon reproduction and survival. Our committee has worked diligently to assess the threats to salmon in Maine and to make reasonable inferences about how these might be mitigated in the face of limited information. We are faced with a problem of ecosystem management where management choices are shrouded in uncertainty. Many variables affect the system, some yet to be identified, but only a small subset of these variables is subject to manipulation. In short, the challenge faced by our committee was to address a real-world prob-
lem in applied biology. This challenge has humbled us. It presented us with a case study in the manifold complexities of biological and human systems, and it taught us that there are few strong levers available to the real-world system manager.
The practical question of what is happening to the fish and to the ecosystems in which they are embedded remains. What factors are responsible for the observed decline and what levers are available to the manager to move the system toward a more sustainable end point? Our committee has debated this central question at length. From the management perspective, we review the governance system and consider the success or lack thereof of hatchery supplementation. We also consider the likely effects of dam removal as options worthy of special attention. We do not claim to have a magic solution to the long-standing problem facing Atlantic salmon in Maine. What we offer instead is an analytical framework for evaluating management options and for establishing priorities. This framework is drawn from risk and decision analyses; at its best, those techniques can assist in setting priorities and in identifying those actions most likely to be effective. Like any algorithm, risk and decision analyses are no better than the quality of the available data, but the application of the framework does assist in identifying crucial missing information, and it can reveal those factors of minimal importance, because the larger system is insensitive to their manipulation. We appreciate the difficult and challenging tasks faced by those charged with the implementation of a recovery plan for salmon, and we hope that the analytical framework described in this report will serve to assist both managers and recovery planners.
The task of our committee was made much easier by the many individuals who testified before us during the course of our open meetings in the State of Maine. We are grateful for their willingness to share their collective wisdom. Space does not permit the individual acknowledgment here of everyone who helped the committee through testimony, advice, and sharing of written information, although we are extremely grateful to all of them, and the wiser for their efforts. They and others who helped the committee in various ways range from elected officials to volunteers and from government biologists to members of private organizations. They and the experts who reviewed this report, to whom we also are extremely grateful, are listed in the Acknowledgments. However, Ed Baum deserves special mention here for his long service in generating knowledge of Atlantic salmon in Maine and for the wealth of information that he shared with this committee through his book and presentations to us.
Chairing a committee faced with a difficult and controversial charge can be very hard work. In this case the burden was made light by an
exceptionally knowledgeable and cooperative committee. I learned a great deal from my colleagues, and I approach the end of this report with a sense of regret that the fellowship associated with our work has reached an end. The superb staff of the National Research Council also eased our task. Our study director, Dr. David Policansky, is himself an expert in fish biology, genetics, and conservation policy. Dr. Policansky contributed to the final report in numerous ways, and the report is much better because of his professional touch. Dr. Susan Roberts and Leah Probst contributed their expertise and skill to the report’s quality as well, and we are grateful to Jennifer Saunders, Bryan Shipley, Dominic Brose, and John Brown for their attention to the needs of the committee throughout its meetings and for their attention to detail in production of the report. We also thank Ruth Crossgrove and Mirsada Karalic-Loncarevic for their editorial and research efforts.
Michael T. Clegg
Chair, Committee on Atlantic Salmon in Maine
Acknowledgments
This report has been enhanced by the contributions of many people. They are listed below and we are grateful to them all.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Edward T. Baum, Atlantic Salmon Unlimited
Barry Costa-Pierce, University of Rhode Island
Perry R. Hagenstein, Institute for Forest Analysis, Planning, and Policy
William K. Hershberger, National Center for Cool and Cold Water Aquaculture
Irving Kornfield, University of Maine
Kai N. Lee, Williams College
Rosamond Lee Naylor, Stanford University
Ralph Pisapia, Meridith, New Hampshire
Jack Schmidt, Utah State University
Nancy Targett, University of Delaware
James Wilson, University of Maine
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by John Dowling, Harvard University (review monitor), and John Burris, Beloit College (review coordinator). Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
We are grateful to Randall Peterman for his helpful advice on methods of risk assessment and risk analysis.
Presenters at Public Sessions
John Banks, Penobscot Indian Nation
Ed Baum, Atlantic Salmon Unlimited
Ken Beland, Maine Atlantic Salmon Commission
David Bell, Wild Blueberries Commission
Sebastian Belle, Maine Aquaculture Association
Russell W. Brown, NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center
Elizabeth Butler, Pierce Atwood
Mary Colligan, National Marine Fisheries Service
David Courtemanch, Maine Department of Environmental Protection
Laura Rose Day, Natural Resources Council of Maine
Scott Dickerson, Coastal Mountains Land Trust
Norman R. Dube, Maine Atlantic Salmon Commission
Kevin Friedland, University of Massachusetts-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
John Gold, Texas A&M University
Andy Goode, Atlantic Salmon Federation
Terry Haines, University of Maine-U.S. Geological Survey
Melissa Halsted, Kennebec Soil & Water Conservation District
James Hawkes, NOAA-Fisheries, Maine Field Station
The Honorable Angus King, Jr., Governor of Maine
Thomas King, Craig Brook National Fish Hatchery, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Fred Kircheis, Maine Atlantic Salmon Commission
John F. Kocik, NOAA
Stephen Koenig, Project SHARE
Irv Kornfield, University of Maine
Donna Loring, Penobscot Nation
Jerry Marancik, Craig Brook National Fish Hatchery, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Morten Moesswilde, Department of Conservation, Maine Forest Service
Paul Nickerson, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Stephen Page, ContiSea Ducktrap River Fish Farm
Lee Perry, Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife
Jeff Reardon, Trout Unlimited
Timothy Sheehan, NOAA
Alan Spear, Bangor Hydro-Electric Company
Joan Trial, Maine Atlantic Salmon Commission
Douglas Watts, Friends of Kennebec Salmon
Mark Whiting, Maine Department of Environmental Protection
Fred Whoriskey, Jr., Atlantic Salmon Federation
Site Visits
The committee visited the following sites during its meetings and is grateful to the many people who provided information, shared their facilities, provided hospitality, and provided valuable information there.
Coopers Mills Sheepscot Sites
Craig Brook Hatchery
Ducktrap Coalition program
Ducktrap Timber Preserve
Edwards Dam
Head Tide/Sheepscot watershed
Maine Atlantic Salmon, LLC facilities
Pleasant River Weir
Wild Blueberry Farms