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Elements of a Science Plan for the
North Pacific
Research Board
Committee on a Science Plan for the North Pacific Research Board
Ocean Studies Board
Polar Research Board
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS · 500 Fifth Street, N.W. · Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov-
erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from
the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi-
neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible
for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for ap-
propriate balance.
This study was supported by a contract between the National Academy of Sci-
ences and the North Pacific Research Board. Any opinions, findings, conclusions,
or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and
do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided
support for the project.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-09144-6 (Book)
International Standard Book Number 0-309-53004-0 (PDF)
Copies of this report are available from the program office:
Ocean Studies Board
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
(202) 334-2714
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202)
334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Cover: The seabird pictured is the Spectacled Eider, or Somateria fischeri. This is a
threatened species mostly found in Alaska as well as other portions of the north
pacific. This duck tends to migrate to Russia or Alaska's Arctic Coastal Plain for
breeding. The photograph is courtesy of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The
mountainous region depicted is Glacier Bay, located in southeastern Alaska. This
picture was taken in September of 1992 by retired Commander John Bortniak of
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Corps. The third
image shows Pacific white-sided dolphins, or Lagenorhynchus obliquidens, leaping
out of the water. Captain Budd Christman of the NOAA Corps took this photo.
Photography courtesy of the NOAA Photo Library. Cover design by Michael
Dudzik of the National Academies Press.
Copyright 2004 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating
society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research,
dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the
general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in
1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern-
ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the
National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter
of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding
engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem-
bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis-
ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors
engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and
research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf
is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of
Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in
the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The
Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences
by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon
its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education.
Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of
Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with
the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal gov-
ernment. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the
Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in
providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineer-
ing communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the
Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and
vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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COMMITTEE ON A SCIENCE PLAN FOR THE
NORTH PACIFIC RESEARCH BOARD
LYNDA SHAPIRO (Chair), University of Oregon, Charleston
KEVIN ARRIGO, Stanford University, California
DON BOWEN, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Nova Scotia, Canada
ROGNVALDUR HANNESSON, Norges Handelshoyskole,
The Norwegian School of Economics and Business, Norway
STEVEN HARE, International Pacific Halibut Commission, Seattle,
Washington
DAVID KARL, University of Hawaii, Honolulu
BRENDA KONAR, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
ROBIE MACDONALD, Institute of Ocean Sciences, British Columbia,
Canada
WIESLAW MASLOWSKI, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey,
California
JULIAN MCCREARY, University of Hawaii, Honolulu
CALEB PUNGOWIYI, Robert Aqqaluk Newlin, Sr. Memorial Trust,
Kotzebue, Alaska
VLADIMIR RADCHENKO, Sakhalin Research Institute of Fisheries
and Oceanography, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia
Staff
SHELDON DROBOT, Study Director, Polar Research Board
JOANNE BINTZ, Program Officer, Ocean Studies Board
TERRY SCHAEFER, Program Officer, Ocean Studies Board
ANN CARLISLE, Administrative Associate, Polar Research Board
BYRON MASON, Senior Project Assistant, Ocean Studies Board
SARAH CAPOTE, Project Assistant, Ocean Studies Board
v
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OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
NANCY RABALAIS (Chair), Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium,
Chauvin
ARTHUR BAGGEROER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge
JAMES COLEMAN, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge
LARRY CROWDER, Duke University, Beaufort, North Carolina
RICHARD B. DERISO, Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission,
La Jolla, California
ROBERT B. DITTON, Texas A&M University, College Station
EARL DOYLE, Shell Oil (retired), Sugar Land, Texas
ROBERT DUCE, Texas A&M University, College Station
PAUL G. GAFFNEY II, National Defense University, Washington, D.C.
WAYNE R. GEYER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
STANLEY R. HART, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,
Woods Hole, Massachusetts
MIRIAM KASTNER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla,
California
RALPH S. LEWIS, Connecticut Geological Survey, Hartford
WILLIAM F. MARCUSON III, U.S. Army Corp of Engineers (retired),
Vicksburg, Mississippi
JULIAN P. MCCREARY, JR., University of Hawaii, Honolulu
JACQUELINE MICHEL, Research Planning, Inc., Columbia,
South Carolina
SCOTT NIXON, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett
SHIRLEY A. POMPONI, Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution,
Fort Pierce, Florida
FRED N. SPIESS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla,
California
JON G. SUTINEN, University of Rhode Island, Kingston
NANCY TARGETT, University of Delaware, Lewes
Staff
MORGAN GOPNIK, Director
SUSAN ROBERTS, Acting Director
JENNIFER MERRILL, Senior Program Officer
DAN WALKER, Senior Program Officer
JOANNE BINTZ, Program Officer
vi
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ALAN B. SIELEN, Visiting Scholar
ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Officer
JOHN DANDELSKI, Research Associate
SHIREL SMITH, Administrative Associate
NANCY CAPUTO, Senior Project Assistant
BYRON MASON, Senior Project Assistant
SARAH CAPOTE, Project Assistant
vii
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POLAR RESEARCH BOARD
ROBIN BELL (Chair), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades,
New York
MARY ALBERT, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory,
Hanover, New Hampshire
AKHIL DATTA-GUPTA, Texas A&M University, College Station
GEORGE DENTON, University of Maine, Orono
RICHARD GLENN, Arctic Slope Regional Corporation, Barrow, Alaska
JACQUELINE GREBMEIER, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
HENRY P. HUNTINGTON, Huntington Consulting, Eagle River, Alaska
DAVID KARL, University of Hawaii, Honolulu
MAHLON C. KENNICUTT II, Texas A&M University, College Station
(ex officio)
AMANDA LYNCH, University of Colorado, Boulder
W. BERRY LYONS, Byrd Polar Research Center, Columbus, Ohio
ROBIE MACDONALD, Institute of Ocean Sciences, British Columbia,
Canada
MILES MCPHEE, McPhee Research Company, Naches, Washington
CAROLE L. SEYFRIT, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
JOHN WALSH, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
PATRICK WEBBER, Michigan State University, East Lansing (ex officio)
TERRY WILSON, Ohio State University, Columbus (ex officio)
WARREN ZAPOL, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical
School, Boston
Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
SHELDON DROBOT, Program Officer
ANN CARLISLE, Administrative Associate
viii
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Preface
T he North Pacific Research Board (NPRB) is custodian to a portion
of the funds generated by the Environmental Improvement and
Restoration Fund. Those funds are dedicated to research in the
North Pacific Ocean, the Bering Sea, and the Arctic Ocean. Knowing that
careful advance planning could increase the value of its work over time,
the NPRB sought guidelines from the National Academies that would
provide a framework within which it could develop a Science Plan for
administering and distributing those funds. The Committee on a Science
Plan for the North Pacific Research Board was chosen for this purpose.
Our goal was not to write the Science Plan itself, but to advise the NPRB
on the development of the Plan. We struggled with this caveat, often
catching ourselves writing a plan rather than a guide to a plan. In the end
though, we believe we were able to develop a set of guidelines without
stepping beyond our mandate.
In preparation for this task, we visited several resource-based commu-
nities along the coast of Alaska and spent time talking with user commu-
nities about their needs for the applications of scientific research. We
looked at other science plans to identify elements that are needed for
success.
As we prepared this interim report, we identified several central
issues that merit emphasis. First, we hope that the Science Plan is devel-
oped as a living document that will be reviewed and amended at frequent
intervals. We feel that the NPRB will have the greatest impact over time if
it seeks an integrated and focused program rather than funding a series of
ix
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x PREFACE
smaller, scattered programs. We were concerned that the terms of the
enabling legislation were geographically vague and felt that a focused
program should limit the portions of the North Pacific and Arctic Oceans
investigated. During our site visits, we found that many users noted the
need for studies of species of interest, but the committee felt strongly that
the course of action most likely to yield useful applications would be a
broadly integrated study of that species' ecosystem rather than a narrow
study of an isolated species. Explaining the reason for that course of action
will require a good program of communication. At the same time, how-
ever, we noted that a program of listening will be valuable as well; users
who work close to the environment often have special knowledge that
should be respected and used where appropriate.
The NPRB and its Science Panel have an interesting challenge ahead
as they develop the Science Plan that will guide the NPRB's scientific
program. The committee hopes that this interim report will be useful to
them in that process, and we look forward to viewing the Science Plan
that emerges and commenting on it next year in a final report to the NPRB.
The committee thanks the many scientists and users who provided
input, and we remain solely responsible for our interpretations of their
information. The committee is especially grateful for the efforts of staff
officers Sheldon Drobot of the Polar Research Board, Joanne Bintz and
Terry Schaefer of the Ocean Studies Board. Chris Elfring, director of the
Polar Research Board, gave us insight and guidance through the process.
Ann Carlisle of the Polar Research Board, Byron Mason, and Sarah Capote
of the Ocean Studies Board provided outstanding logistical support.
Finally, I am grateful to the members of the committee for their hard work.
They are a talented and dedicated group and I have enjoyed working
with them.
Lynda Shapiro, Chair
Committee on a Science Plan
for the North Pacific Research Board
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Acknowledgments
T his report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen
for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance
with procedures approved by the National Research Council's
Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to
provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in
making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the
report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and respon-
siveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript
remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Patty Brown-Schwalenberg, Chugach Regional Resources Commission,
Anchorage, Alaska
Keith Criddle, Utah State University, Logan
Jackie Grebmeier, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Ray Hilborn, University of Washington, Seattle
Susan Hills, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Christopher N.K. Mooers, University of Miami, Florida
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many construc-
tive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the
conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the
report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by
Donald Siniff of the University of Minnesota. Appointed by the National
xi
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xii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an inde-
pendent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with
institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully
considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely
with the authoring committee and the institution.
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
1 INTRODUCTION 13
Current Structure of the North Pacific Research Board, 14
Current Research Funding Procedures of the NPRB, 15
Development of the NPRB Science Plan, 16
Characterization of the Arctic Ocean, Bering Sea, and
North Pacific Ocean, 21
2 CRITERIA FOR A SUCCESSFUL NPRB SCIENCE PLAN 26
Elements of a Successful Science Plan, 26
Program-Specific Components, 27
3 RESEARCH THEMES 32
Ecosystem States and Variability, 33
Human-Induced Impacts, 52
Economic, Social, and Management Research, 57
Forecasting and Responding to Change, 63
4 PROPOSED MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION 66
NPRB Members, Staff, and Panels, 67
The Proposal Process, 68
External Review, 70
Outreach and Education, 71
xiii
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xiv CONTENTS
Data Policy and Management, 71
Coordination with Other Projects and Programs, 74
Scientific Programs, 75
5 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 79
Criteria for a Successful NPRB Science Plan, 80
Research Themes, 81
Management Issues, 83
REFERENCES 86
APPENDIXES
A Acronyms 95
B NPRB 2002-2003 Research Priorities 98
C Committee and Staff Biographies 101
D Site Visit Summaries 107
E Workshop Agenda and Participants List 117
F Title IV--Environmental Improvement and Restoration Fund 122
