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Elements of a Science Plan for the North Pacific Research Board Committee on a Science Plan for the North Pacific Research Board Ocean Studies Board Polar Research Board THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi- neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for ap- propriate balance. This study was supported by a contract between the National Academy of Sci- ences and the North Pacific Research Board. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09144-6 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-53004-0 (PDF) Copies of this report are available from the program office: Ocean Studies Board 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-2714 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Cover: The seabird pictured is the Spectacled Eider, or Somateria fischeri. This is a threatened species mostly found in Alaska as well as other portions of the north pacific. This duck tends to migrate to Russia or Alaska's Arctic Coastal Plain for breeding. The photograph is courtesy of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The mountainous region depicted is Glacier Bay, located in southeastern Alaska. This picture was taken in September of 1992 by retired Commander John Bortniak of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Corps. The third image shows Pacific white-sided dolphins, or Lagenorhynchus obliquidens, leaping out of the water. Captain Budd Christman of the NOAA Corps took this photo. Photography courtesy of the NOAA Photo Library. Cover design by Michael Dudzik of the National Academies Press. Copyright 2004 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern- ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem- bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis- ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal gov- ernment. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineer- ing communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON A SCIENCE PLAN FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC RESEARCH BOARD LYNDA SHAPIRO (Chair), University of Oregon, Charleston KEVIN ARRIGO, Stanford University, California DON BOWEN, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Nova Scotia, Canada ROGNVALDUR HANNESSON, Norges Handelshoyskole, The Norwegian School of Economics and Business, Norway STEVEN HARE, International Pacific Halibut Commission, Seattle, Washington DAVID KARL, University of Hawaii, Honolulu BRENDA KONAR, University of Alaska, Fairbanks ROBIE MACDONALD, Institute of Ocean Sciences, British Columbia, Canada WIESLAW MASLOWSKI, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California JULIAN MCCREARY, University of Hawaii, Honolulu CALEB PUNGOWIYI, Robert Aqqaluk Newlin, Sr. Memorial Trust, Kotzebue, Alaska VLADIMIR RADCHENKO, Sakhalin Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia Staff SHELDON DROBOT, Study Director, Polar Research Board JOANNE BINTZ, Program Officer, Ocean Studies Board TERRY SCHAEFER, Program Officer, Ocean Studies Board ANN CARLISLE, Administrative Associate, Polar Research Board BYRON MASON, Senior Project Assistant, Ocean Studies Board SARAH CAPOTE, Project Assistant, Ocean Studies Board v

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OCEAN STUDIES BOARD NANCY RABALAIS (Chair), Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, Chauvin ARTHUR BAGGEROER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge JAMES COLEMAN, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge LARRY CROWDER, Duke University, Beaufort, North Carolina RICHARD B. DERISO, Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, La Jolla, California ROBERT B. DITTON, Texas A&M University, College Station EARL DOYLE, Shell Oil (retired), Sugar Land, Texas ROBERT DUCE, Texas A&M University, College Station PAUL G. GAFFNEY II, National Defense University, Washington, D.C. WAYNE R. GEYER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts STANLEY R. HART, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts MIRIAM KASTNER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California RALPH S. LEWIS, Connecticut Geological Survey, Hartford WILLIAM F. MARCUSON III, U.S. Army Corp of Engineers (retired), Vicksburg, Mississippi JULIAN P. MCCREARY, JR., University of Hawaii, Honolulu JACQUELINE MICHEL, Research Planning, Inc., Columbia, South Carolina SCOTT NIXON, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett SHIRLEY A. POMPONI, Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution, Fort Pierce, Florida FRED N. SPIESS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California JON G. SUTINEN, University of Rhode Island, Kingston NANCY TARGETT, University of Delaware, Lewes Staff MORGAN GOPNIK, Director SUSAN ROBERTS, Acting Director JENNIFER MERRILL, Senior Program Officer DAN WALKER, Senior Program Officer JOANNE BINTZ, Program Officer vi

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ALAN B. SIELEN, Visiting Scholar ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Officer JOHN DANDELSKI, Research Associate SHIREL SMITH, Administrative Associate NANCY CAPUTO, Senior Project Assistant BYRON MASON, Senior Project Assistant SARAH CAPOTE, Project Assistant vii

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POLAR RESEARCH BOARD ROBIN BELL (Chair), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York MARY ALBERT, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, New Hampshire AKHIL DATTA-GUPTA, Texas A&M University, College Station GEORGE DENTON, University of Maine, Orono RICHARD GLENN, Arctic Slope Regional Corporation, Barrow, Alaska JACQUELINE GREBMEIER, University of Tennessee, Knoxville HENRY P. HUNTINGTON, Huntington Consulting, Eagle River, Alaska DAVID KARL, University of Hawaii, Honolulu MAHLON C. KENNICUTT II, Texas A&M University, College Station (ex officio) AMANDA LYNCH, University of Colorado, Boulder W. BERRY LYONS, Byrd Polar Research Center, Columbus, Ohio ROBIE MACDONALD, Institute of Ocean Sciences, British Columbia, Canada MILES MCPHEE, McPhee Research Company, Naches, Washington CAROLE L. SEYFRIT, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia JOHN WALSH, University of Alaska, Fairbanks PATRICK WEBBER, Michigan State University, East Lansing (ex officio) TERRY WILSON, Ohio State University, Columbus (ex officio) WARREN ZAPOL, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Director SHELDON DROBOT, Program Officer ANN CARLISLE, Administrative Associate viii

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Preface T he North Pacific Research Board (NPRB) is custodian to a portion of the funds generated by the Environmental Improvement and Restoration Fund. Those funds are dedicated to research in the North Pacific Ocean, the Bering Sea, and the Arctic Ocean. Knowing that careful advance planning could increase the value of its work over time, the NPRB sought guidelines from the National Academies that would provide a framework within which it could develop a Science Plan for administering and distributing those funds. The Committee on a Science Plan for the North Pacific Research Board was chosen for this purpose. Our goal was not to write the Science Plan itself, but to advise the NPRB on the development of the Plan. We struggled with this caveat, often catching ourselves writing a plan rather than a guide to a plan. In the end though, we believe we were able to develop a set of guidelines without stepping beyond our mandate. In preparation for this task, we visited several resource-based commu- nities along the coast of Alaska and spent time talking with user commu- nities about their needs for the applications of scientific research. We looked at other science plans to identify elements that are needed for success. As we prepared this interim report, we identified several central issues that merit emphasis. First, we hope that the Science Plan is devel- oped as a living document that will be reviewed and amended at frequent intervals. We feel that the NPRB will have the greatest impact over time if it seeks an integrated and focused program rather than funding a series of ix

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x PREFACE smaller, scattered programs. We were concerned that the terms of the enabling legislation were geographically vague and felt that a focused program should limit the portions of the North Pacific and Arctic Oceans investigated. During our site visits, we found that many users noted the need for studies of species of interest, but the committee felt strongly that the course of action most likely to yield useful applications would be a broadly integrated study of that species' ecosystem rather than a narrow study of an isolated species. Explaining the reason for that course of action will require a good program of communication. At the same time, how- ever, we noted that a program of listening will be valuable as well; users who work close to the environment often have special knowledge that should be respected and used where appropriate. The NPRB and its Science Panel have an interesting challenge ahead as they develop the Science Plan that will guide the NPRB's scientific program. The committee hopes that this interim report will be useful to them in that process, and we look forward to viewing the Science Plan that emerges and commenting on it next year in a final report to the NPRB. The committee thanks the many scientists and users who provided input, and we remain solely responsible for our interpretations of their information. The committee is especially grateful for the efforts of staff officers Sheldon Drobot of the Polar Research Board, Joanne Bintz and Terry Schaefer of the Ocean Studies Board. Chris Elfring, director of the Polar Research Board, gave us insight and guidance through the process. Ann Carlisle of the Polar Research Board, Byron Mason, and Sarah Capote of the Ocean Studies Board provided outstanding logistical support. Finally, I am grateful to the members of the committee for their hard work. They are a talented and dedicated group and I have enjoyed working with them. Lynda Shapiro, Chair Committee on a Science Plan for the North Pacific Research Board

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Acknowledgments T his report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and respon- siveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Patty Brown-Schwalenberg, Chugach Regional Resources Commission, Anchorage, Alaska Keith Criddle, Utah State University, Logan Jackie Grebmeier, University of Tennessee, Knoxville Ray Hilborn, University of Washington, Seattle Susan Hills, University of Alaska, Fairbanks Christopher N.K. Mooers, University of Miami, Florida Although the reviewers listed above have provided many construc- tive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Donald Siniff of the University of Minnesota. Appointed by the National xi

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xii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an inde- pendent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 13 Current Structure of the North Pacific Research Board, 14 Current Research Funding Procedures of the NPRB, 15 Development of the NPRB Science Plan, 16 Characterization of the Arctic Ocean, Bering Sea, and North Pacific Ocean, 21 2 CRITERIA FOR A SUCCESSFUL NPRB SCIENCE PLAN 26 Elements of a Successful Science Plan, 26 Program-Specific Components, 27 3 RESEARCH THEMES 32 Ecosystem States and Variability, 33 Human-Induced Impacts, 52 Economic, Social, and Management Research, 57 Forecasting and Responding to Change, 63 4 PROPOSED MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION 66 NPRB Members, Staff, and Panels, 67 The Proposal Process, 68 External Review, 70 Outreach and Education, 71 xiii

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xiv CONTENTS Data Policy and Management, 71 Coordination with Other Projects and Programs, 74 Scientific Programs, 75 5 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 79 Criteria for a Successful NPRB Science Plan, 80 Research Themes, 81 Management Issues, 83 REFERENCES 86 APPENDIXES A Acronyms 95 B NPRB 2002-2003 Research Priorities 98 C Committee and Staff Biographies 101 D Site Visit Summaries 107 E Workshop Agenda and Participants List 117 F Title IV--Environmental Improvement and Restoration Fund 122