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2
Criteria for a Successful
NPRB Science Plan
T he purpose of any science plan is to provide an opportunity for
careful thought about the mission and goals of the program and to
serve as a guide for the program's managers and participants.
Thus, this effort by the North Pacific Research Board (NPRB) to develop a
science plan early in its formation is to be commended. The planning
process is important because it will help the NPRB establish clear policies
for the maintenance, development, and review of all its activities.
ELEMENTS OF A SUCCESSFUL SCIENCE PLAN
The following elements have been identified as essential to any success-
ful plan and thus to the NPRB:
· clearly defined scientific goals that recognize the needs for ecologi-
cal modeling, integrated physical and biological monitoring, social and
economic studies, and sampling on the wide range of space-time scales
that affect marine ecosystems;
· clearly defined program management policies that provide for a
stable funding base and management infrastructure, allow for flexibility
in program design and periodic program review, and outline fair and
consistent review and grant award procedures;
· an effective data management and dissemination strategy;
· coordination with existing programs;
· development of applications that are useful to decision makers and
stakeholders; and
26
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CRITERIA FOR A SUCCESSFUL NPRB SCIENCE PLAN 27
· recognition of the importance of public interaction, community
involvement, and use of traditional knowledge.
Similar sets of elements have been adopted in other programs--for
example, the U.S. Global Ocean Observing Systems program (Weisberg et
al., 2000) and A Century of Ecosystem Science: Planning Long-Term
Research in the Gulf of Alaska (NRC, 2002). Each of these elements is
discussed in Chapters 3-5 in relation to the goals of the NPRB.
PROGRAM-SPECIFIC COMPONENTS
Given its understanding of the legislation that established the NPRB
and its assigned mission and the needs identified by various stakeholders,
the committee has identified a number of program-specific components
that can be used as a framework for the NPRB Science Plan. These include
the overriding conceptual foundation, long-term studies, short-term
process and technology development studies, modeling studies, range-
of-measurement scales, an interdisciplinary approach, and geographic
constraints.
Conceptual Foundation
The overriding goal or conceptual foundation is critical to the success
of a long-term science program such as the one being planned by the
NPRB. The overarching goal provides a rationale for the program and a
signature that will identify the program. It will provide thematic guidance
for the selection of process and monitoring studies to be undertaken, as
well as some stability of purpose over time. It is within this framework
that the more specific objectives of the research find their broader
relevance. A clear goal or foundation is also needed to buffer long-term
objectives of the research program from the short-term demands of the
day.
In the case of the NPRB, the conceptual foundation must be specific
enough to guide the first years of its research and monitoring program,
but general enough to remain relevant over the longer term to provide the
science needed to respond to new and unforeseen management issues
and technology development and to accommodate increased understand-
ing of the ecosystem and its components. No one can hope to anticipate
the taxa, species, or issues that will emerge as critical to the development
of public policy over the coming decades. Therefore, on a decadal time
scale, it is inevitable and desirable that the conceptual foundation evolve
with the development of new theory and the integration of research
findings.
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28 ELEMENTS OF A SCIENCE PLAN FOR THE NPRB
The overarching goal will no doubt bear some resemblance to the
mission statement of the NPRB (Box ES-2), but it should be developed
carefully with respect not only to the enabling legislation of the NPRB,
but also to the overarching goals of other programs that focus on marine
ecosystem research in order to produce a unique identity. For example,
the Gulf of Alaska Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) program, which is more
limited in geographic extent, is based on a conceptual foundation that
recognizes (1) that ecosystems are interconnected and must be studied as
such and (2) that human impacts and climate are the two most important
factors affecting ecosystems (NRC, 2002). The Global Ocean Ecosystem
Dynamics (GLOBEC) program, which is more extensive in geographic
extent, is based on understanding the structure and functioning of the
global ocean ecosystem and its response to physical forcing, with the aim
of developing the ability to forecast the responses of the marine ecosystem
to global change http://www.pml.ac.uk/globec/main.htm.
Long-Term Studies
A commitment to long-term time-series observations is an essential
research investment. The NPRB has a relatively stable funding structure
that will permit the establishment and support of long-term studies
without interruption. Such studies would provide an increased under-
standing of the response of marine ecosystems to human impacts and
environmental change and variability. The NPRB Science Plan should
contain a long-term (i.e., multidecade) research program. This long-term
perspective will be one of the strengths of the program, given that long-
term measurements are needed to detect ecosystem change and to make
inferences about the reasons for that change. The NPRB thus has the
opportunity to participate in research that will be of fundamental impor-
tance in this century.
Long-term research, including modeling and monitoring, will be
critical to the NPRB's ability to clarify the relative influence of human
activities and natural variability on ecosystem goods and services. There
is continuing intense public debate surrounding the relative impacts of
human activities (e.g., fishing, climate change) and natural environmental
variability on the dynamics of single species, groups of species, or broader
taxa. For example, in the North Pacific, attempts to determine the causes
of the dramatic decline in the number of Steller sea lions over several
decades serve to underscore the social and economic significance of these
debates (NRC, 2003b). We simply cannot hope to understand, resolve, or
mitigate these issues without a long-term commitment to physical and
biological research and their integration through comprehensive model-
ing and analytical methods.
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CRITERIA FOR A SUCCESSFUL NPRB SCIENCE PLAN 29
Short-Term Process and Technology-Development Studies
Although the need for long-term studies is clear, the NPRB will also
have to support shorter-term (e.g., two to five years) hypothesis-driven
research aimed at understanding the processes that underlie observed
changes in the components of marine ecosystems and fisheries. The NPRB
should benefit from technological advances, that increase the quality
and/or amount of data and may reduce the cost of collecting long-term
measurements. Given the large geographic scope of NPRB's mandate, the
NPRB must consider funding studies introducing new technology, but
these must be balanced with shorter-term research projects and with the
longer-term goals of the program. However, these must be strategic
decisions, because there will be little benefit in starting new time-series
studies only to suspend measurements after a few years.
Modeling Studies
The development of ocean, sea-ice, and ecosystem models could be a
critical part of NPRB research activities. For one thing, such models are
essential for identifying the basic processes that determine the region's
ocean circulation, sea-ice formation and retreat, and biogeochemistry. For
another, they offer a means of "interpolation" among scattered and scarce
data sources, thereby providing a more complete large-scale and long-
term picture of physical and biological setting for the region. Models that
allow integration and synthesis of observations are now an integral part
of many observational programs, especially those limited by temporal
(e.g., sea-ice cover), spatial (covering large areas), and geographical access
(e.g., political boundaries) or by the availability of funds. Finally, in order
to maximize gains from long- and short-term observational studies, model-
ing of past-through-present (i.e., the last few decades for which data exist
to compare with model output) ecological conditions is needed. Model
results validated with data from research will provide insights on recent
ecosystem variability and will aid decision-making processes. A coordi-
nated approach for modeling and data collection would facilitate an
improved predictability of the effects of ecosystem change in the region.
Range of Measurement Scales
Often, little attention is paid to the spatial and temporal differences
between physical and biological measurements. Development of an
understanding of the ecosystems of the North Pacific and the fisheries
they support will require large-scale biological and physical monitoring,
modeling, and process studies. Physical measurements, usually gathered
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30 ELEMENTS OF A SCIENCE PLAN FOR THE NPRB
by electronic sensors, are often more easily obtained. Biological and
chemical measurements, with the exception of in vivo bulk chlorophyll,
are usually obtained by the slower process of direct observation and
analysis, but this is changing with the development of advanced data-
logging and satellite observations. Models coupling the two must deal
with parameters obtained on different temporal and spatial scales.
Interdisciplinary Approach
An interdisciplinary approach will assist in developing a basic under-
standing of processes structuring the North Pacific, Bering Sea, and Arctic
marine ecosystems (Box ES-1). Researchers in the fields of physics, biol-
ogy, chemistry, economics, and sociology, among others, have the poten-
tial to make unique contributions if they collaborate from the outset,
jointly developing research ideas and an interdisciplinary (as opposed to
simply multidisciplinary) approach to hypothesis testing, data collection,
analysis, and modeling. The NPRB should encourage interdisciplinary
monitoring to link the forcing (physical monitoring) with the effects
(biological, geochemical, contaminant). A number of advantages derived
can be from interdisciplinary research, including focusing attention on
primary issues; pooling knowledge and resources; broadening interest
and support; accommodating both short-term and long-term research
plans; and promoting the cost-effectiveness of research. Although not all
research activities require interaction across disciplines, in many cases it
is more efficient to couple physical and biological sensors onto one plat-
form. However, activities such as modeling and process studies, aimed
at elucidating mechanisms, will require a high degree of interdisciplinary
collaboration and cooperation.
Geographic Constraints
Because the area included in the legislation is so vast, the NPRB
Science Plan should include more limited definitions of the North Pacific
and Arctic Oceans. For the purposes of this report, the term "North
Pacific" includes only that portion of the North Pacific Ocean that lies
within the subarctic gyre, north of the central gyre. For the same reason,
studies in the Arctic Ocean should be focused on a more limited region,
for example, the East Siberian Sea, the Chukchi Sea, and the Beaufort Sea.
This should not preclude studying the effects of terrigenous input, studies
of species that migrate across these boundaries, or studies of species that
would best be served by comparison across boundaries.
During difficult periods, species retreat to the centers of their ranges,
and so should the NPRB. When income from the trust is low, the pro-
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CRITERIA FOR A SUCCESSFUL NPRB SCIENCE PLAN 31
gram should retreat to core scientific questions (to be determined by the
Science Panel) and, if financially necessary, focus its short-term process
studies there. A possible core area is the Bering Sea because it supports a
large fishery and can be studied as an entire ecosystem. Long-term
studies, of course, should be maintained as a high priority independent of
geographic region. Conversely, during periods of higher than average
income, the NPRB could consider short-term comparative studies outside
of the region that can place high-latitude results in a larger context.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
nprb science
