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5
Findings and Recommendations
T he North Pacific Research Board (NPRB) Science Plan is the under-
pinning of the entire science program and will determine the legacy
of the NPRB. A successful science plan operates under the aegis of
an overall conceptual framework. It contains clearly defined scientific
goals and program management policies, has an effective data manage-
ment and dissemination strategy, is actively coordinating with other fund-
ing programs, develops applications that are useful to decision makers
and stakeholders, and recognizes the importance of public interaction and
the use of traditional knowledge.
The NPRB plans to support research in a region of the world noted
for a harsh climate that is especially vulnerable to climate warming and is
dependent on resource-based economies. The NPRB will administer
funds from a relatively stable and long-term funding base that is amenable
to the establishment of long time-series data collection. Such data collec-
tion can form the basis for studies of environmental variability and climate
change. Shorter-term projects should develop models, examine processes,
and develop technologies that will lead to scientific advances. The com-
mittee supports a broadly interdisciplinary approach rather than a series
of disconnected studies.
This report provides guidance to the NPRB in the development of a
long-range comprehensive science plan. The findings and recommenda-
tions of this report are grouped into the following three categories:
79
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80 ELEMENTS OF A SCIENCE PLAN FOR THE NPRB
1. Criteria for a successful NPRB Science Plan
2. Research themes
3. Management issues
For each of these categories, a summary of the findings are provided, fol-
lowed by one or more findings and recommendations. Additional sup-
porting information can be found in the preceding chapters of this report.
CRITERIA FOR A SUCCESSFUL NPRB SCIENCE PLAN
Finding 1: The overriding conceptual foundation is critical to the success
of a long-term science program since it will provide a framework for more
specific recommendations and will guide the program in the long term as
well as the short.
Recommendation 1-1: In developing a science plan, the NPRB must
include policies and procedures that provide for the development and
articulation of the overriding goal or conceptual foundation.
Recommendation 1-2: Since emerging issues cannot be predicted,
the NPRB needs to include mechanisms that will allow the concep-
tual foundation to evolve over time through periodic review.
Finding 2: The geographic area as stated in the mandate is vaguely
defined and might be larger than the NPRB budget could support.
Recommendation 2-1: The NPRB Science Plan should limit studies in
the North Pacific and Arctic Ocean to geographically prescribed areas
where comprehensive studies can be undertaken. For example, the
Arctic could be limited to the East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort
Seas, and the North Pacific to its subarctic gyre, except for studies that
naturally extend outside these boundaries. These regions, together
with the Bering Sea, comprise an interacting series of ecosystems that
may be studied comprehensively through research funded by the
NPRB.
Finding 3: Although the NPRB funds are a large new contribution to the
total research budget of the area, they are not limitless and they do
fluctuate over time due to fluctuating interest rates.
Recommendation 3-1: During periods of funding constraints, all long-
term monitoring should be protected and short-term process studies
should focus on core scientific questions. If financially necessary, it
would be better to support research in a limited geographic area than
to scatter research over a larger area.
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FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 81
RESEARCH THEMES
Ecosystem States and Variability
Finding 4: Ecosystems vary on multiple time and space scales. Some
processes are predictable and others are aperiodic. To meet its legislative
mandate, the NPRB will need to focus on integrated, interdisciplinary
studies of entire ecosystems. Such studies will lead to applications neces-
sary for the management of aquatic resources.
Recommendation 4-1: The NPRB should support fundamental science
to study the structure and function of ecosystems, in order to under-
stand the populations they support.
Recommendation 4-2: The NPRB should encourage formation of
interdisciplinary research teams by priority funding of well-integrated
research groups.
Recommendation 4-3: NPRB funding should support a well-integrated
mix of long-term, process, and modeling studies, accompanied by the
development of appropriate technology if that technology is neces-
sary to answer an important scientific question.
Recommendation 4-4: The NPRB should fund a balanced mixture of
regional and large-scale investigations. Those regional and large-scale
studies should be well integrated.
Recommendation 4-5: The NPRB should encourage proposals that
include data on the roles and trends of important noncommercial
species, such as potential prey species, indicator species, keystone
species, and others. Although there are data for commercial species,
information regarding noncommercial species is particularly lacking.
Finding 5: Knowledge of past and current states of physics and biology is
necessary in order to predict ecosystem change. The unique funding
structure of the NPRB provides a rare opportunity for the establishment
of long-term monitoring sites at well-thought-out locations. The value of
long-term data is in their continuity, and once interrupted they lose their
value.
Recommendation 5-1: Long-term monitoring sites should be estab-
lished and observations should be continued uninterrupted. Once a
long-term monitoring plan has been established, it should be changed
only for compelling reasons and only in such a way that continuity of
the long-term record is preserved.
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82 ELEMENTS OF A SCIENCE PLAN FOR THE NPRB
Finding 6: The collection and incorporation of traditional knowledge is
challenging and generally has not been done well.
Recommendation 6-1: The NPRB should facilitate communication
between scientists and stakeholders in its study area. Several groups,
such as the Alaska Native Science Commission, have expertise in this
process, and the NPRB should work with appropriate stakeholder
representatives to develop strategies for accomplishing scientist-
stakeholder interaction.
Recommendation 6-2: The NPRB should consider funding the collec-
tion of traditional knowledge relevant to its goals and should encour-
age the incorporation of traditional knowledge into research planning
and hypothesis development.
Human-Induced Effects
Finding 7: Human activities have direct and indirect effects on ecosystems.
Recommendation 7-1: The NPRB should fund studies that have a high
potential to determine whether specific human activities have an
effect on marine ecosystems, what the scales of such impacts are likely
to be, and what kinds of mitigation are possible. Such studies could
include impacts of proposed or actual industrial or municipal develop-
ment, fishing and hunting, shipping, and contamination.
Economic, Social, and Management Research
Finding 8: New management methods such as individual fish quotas and
fishing cooperatives have led to structural changes in the industry.
Recommendation 8-1: Economic and social data should be gathered
on an ongoing basis to evaluate the changes that new management
regimes have brought or are likely to bring.
Finding 9: The subsistence economy appears to be under increasing pres-
sure from a dwindling resource base and increased demand.
Recommendation 9-1: Economic and social research is needed to
ascertain the long-term viability of the subsistence economy and the
social changes spurred by decreasing resources and increasing popu-
lations. Researchers should be encouraged to work with rural com-
munities and tribes and with tribal or native organizations on these
types of research projects.
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FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 83
Forecasting and Responding to Change
Finding 10: A lack of data and understanding of underlying processes
inhibits the development of models, both statistical and numerical, for
forecasting purposes.
Recommendation 10-1: The NPRB should fund research that leads to
the improvement of predictive models. This research includes the
acquisition of long-term data records and the undertaking of short-
term process studies that reveal underlying processes.
MANAGEMENT ISSUES
NPRB Members, Staff, and Panels
Finding 11: The NPRB mandate is large and complex, and currently the
only staff is its executive director.
Recommendation 11-1: The NPRB should provide adequate adminis-
trative staff to support the executive director, although care must be
taken to minimize the level of funding going to administration.
Finding 12: Although input from the user community is often sought,
science plans are generally written by scientists familiar with the regional
scientific issues.
Recommendation 12-1: The NPRB Science Panel or other scientists
with appropriate expertise in regional scientific issues, who can place
the regional science within the larger framework, should write the
NPRB Science Plan.
The Proposal Process
Finding 13: The current management structure can lead to real or per-
ceived conflict of interest in reviewing and awarding research grants.
Recommendation 13-1: Final approval of funding decisions should
be made directly by the U.S. secretary of commerce or by a represen-
tative who is remote from the consequences of funding decisions. The
secretary of commerce's representative on the NPRB should not be
the same individual who approves funding recommendations on
behalf of the secretary.
Finding 14: The NPRB has not yet developed clear criteria for proposal
review and distribution of funds that avoid real and perceived conflicts of
interest. The board's long-term legacy will depend on its funding decisions.
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84 ELEMENTS OF A SCIENCE PLAN FOR THE NPRB
Recommendation 14-1: NPRB members should recuse themselves,
in accordance with standard practice, when proposals from their
agency or university are considered for funding.
Recommendation 14-2: The NPRB should establish and publish fair
procedures for awarding grants and then follow those procedures
without exception. The criteria established by the National Science
Foundation are especially respected within the scientific community
and might serve as a model.
Recommendation 14-3: The Science Panel should appoint a Proposal
Selection Committee to rank research proposals and advise the execu-
tive director of its decisions.
Recommendation 14-4: The Advisory Panel and the Science Panel
should not be involved in proposal funding decisions because of
potential conflicts of interest.
Recommendation 14-5: Since the Proposal Selection Committee will
be a panel of experts, the NPRB and the secretary of commerce (or a
representative) should respect their proposal rankings. NPRB fund-
ing decisions should be documented in writing, including an expla-
nation of any deviations from the rankings of the Proposal Selection
Committee.
External Review
Finding 15: All long-lived science programs benefit from periodic external
reviews.
Recommendation 15-1: The NPRB should conduct periodic internal
and external reviews of the science plan, policies, and long-term pro-
grams at five-year intervals. The caution, however, is that the long-
term monitoring components of NPRB programs should be protected
to the extent financially possible.
Outreach and Education
Finding 16: Incorporating public input and informing the public of pro-
gram findings are important NPRB duties.
Recommendation 16-1: The NPRB should encourage outreach and
education activity components either by principal investigators as
part of their proposals or as independently funded activities. These
components should address all levels of education, making sure to
include remote communities.
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FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 85
Recommendation 16-2: The NPRB should facilitate communication
between scientists and stakeholders in its study area. The board
should consider continuing site visits throughout the Northwest
United States and Alaska to foster understanding of its efforts and to
receive public input on future research directions.
Data Policy and Management
Finding 17: An effective data management and dissemination strategy is
vital to ensuring the success of NPRB-funded projects.
Recommendation 17-1: The NPRB Science Plan should instruct prin-
cipal investigators to place all data in the public domain after no more
than two years. Within interdisciplinary programs, data should be
shared as soon as possible. This will serve to maximize dissemination
of knowledge even prior to archival publication.
Recommendation 17-2: The NPRB should establish an administrative
staff position responsible for data management and dissemination.
This person should create and maintain a web-based archive of data
that is easily navigated. Recent successful examples for the NPRB to
follow include the Long Term Ecological Research Network, the Ridge
Inter-Disciplinary Global Experiment, and the Joint Global Ocean Flux
Study.
Finding 18: Archiving tissue samples and organisms provides a basis for
documenting and understanding biodiversity.
Recommendation 18-1: The NPRB should join a sample archiving
program that provides safe storage and allows for easy retrieval.
Coordination with Other Projects and Programs
Finding 19: NPRB has finite resources and its mission overlaps with those
of other agencies and programs.
Recommendation 19-1: The NPRB should appoint one or more indi-
viduals to act as liaisons with other state and federal agencies, univer-
sities, environmental groups, industry, and tribes and tribal or native
organizations whose missions relate to those of the NPRB. Wherever
possible, partnerships should be formed with these groups to lever-
age maximum benefit from available funds.
Recommendation 19-2: The NPRB should conduct an annual principal
investigator workshop in conjunction with the annual Joint Science
Symposium to foster project collaborations and share data.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
nprb science
