THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY

Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs

Committee on Alternatives and Strategies for Future Hydrogen Production and Use

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL AND NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu



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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs Committee on Alternatives and Strategies for Future Hydrogen Production and Use Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL AND NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Grant No. DE-FG36-02GO12114 from the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09163-2 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-53068-7 (PDF) Library of Congress Control Number 2004108605 Available in limited supply from: Board on Energy and Environmental Systems National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, N.W. KECK-W934 Washington, DC 20001 202-334-3344 Additional copies available for sale from: National Academies Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2004 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs COMMITTEE ON ALTERNATIVES AND STRATEGIES FOR FUTURE HYDROGEN PRODUCTION AND USE MICHAEL P. RAMAGE, NAE,1 Chair, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired), Moorestown, New Jersey RAKESH AGRAWAL, NAE, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., Allentown, Pennsylvania DAVID L. BODDE, University of Missouri, Kansas City ROBERT EPPERLY, Consultant, Mountain View, California ANTONIA V. HERZOG, Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, D.C. ROBERT L. HIRSCH, Science Applications International Corporation, Alexandria, Virginia MUJID S. KAZIMI, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge ALEXANDER MACLACHLAN, NAE, E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (retired), Wilmington, Delaware GENE NEMANICH, Independent Consultant, Sugar Land, Texas WILLIAM F. POWERS, NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Ann Arbor, Michigan MAXINE L. SAVITZ, NAE, Consultant (retired, Honeywell), Los Angeles, California WALTER W. (CHIP) SCHROEDER, Proton Energy Systems, Inc., Wallingford, Connecticut ROBERT H. SOCOLOW, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey DANIEL SPERLING, University of California, Davis ALFRED M. SPORMANN, Stanford University, Stanford, California JAMES L. SWEENEY, Stanford University, Stanford, California Project Staff Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES) MARTIN OFFUTT, Study Director ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director, BEES PANOLA GOLSON, Senior Project Assistant NAE Program Office JACK FRITZ, Senior Program Officer Consultants Dale Simbeck, SFA Pacific, Inc. Elaine Chang, SFA Pacific, Inc. 1   NAE = member, National Academy of Engineering.

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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS DOUGLAS M. CHAPIN, NAE,1 Chair, MPR Associates, Alexandria, Virginia ROBERT W. FRI, Vice Chair, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. ALLEN J. BARD, NAS,2 University of Texas, Austin DAVID L. BODDE, University of Missouri, Kansas City PHILIP R. CLARK, NAE, GPU Nuclear Corporation (retired), Boonton, New Jersey CHARLES GOODMAN, Southern Company Services, Birmingham, Alabama DAVID G. HAWKINS, Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, D.C. MARTHA A. KREBS, California Nanosystems Institute (retired), Los Angeles, California GERALD L. KULCINSKI, NAE, University of Wisconsin, Madison JAMES J. MARKOWSKY, NAE, American Electric Power (retired), North Falmouth, Massachusetts DAVID K. OWENS, Edison Electric Institute, Washington, D.C. WILLIAM F. POWERS, NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Ann Arbor, Michigan EDWARD S. RUBIN, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania MAXINE L. SAVITZ, NAE, Honeywell, Inc. (retired), Los Angeles, California PHILIP R. SHARP, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts ROBERT W. SHAW, JR., Aretê Corporation, Center Harbor, New Hampshire SCOTT W. TINKER, University of Texas, Austin JOHN J. WISE, NAE, Mobil Research and Development Company (retired), Princeton, New Jersey Staff JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer MARTIN OFFUTT, Program Officer DANA CAINES, Financial Associate PANOLA GOLSON, Project Assistant 1   NAE = member, National Academy of Engineering. 2   NAS = member, National Academy of Sciences.

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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs Acknowledgments The Committee on Alternatives and Strategies for Future Hydrogen Production and Use wishes to acknowledge and thank the many individuals who contributed significantly of their time and effort to this National Academies’ National Research Council (NRC) study, which was done jointly with the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) Program Office. The presentations at committee meetings provided valuable information and insight on advanced technologies and development initiatives that assisted the committee in formulating the recommendations included in this report. The committee expresses its thanks to the following individuals who briefed the committee: Alex Bell (University of California, Berkeley); Larry Burns (General Motors); John Cassidy (UTC, Inc.); Steve Chalk (U.S. Department of Energy [DOE]); Elaine Chang (SFA Pacific); Roxanne Danz (DOE); Pete Devlin (DOE); Jon Ebacher (GE Power Systems); Charles Forsberg (Oak Ridge National Laboratory [ORNL]); David Friedman (Union of Concerned Scientists); David Garman (DOE); David Gray (Mitretek); Cathy Gregoire-Padro (National Renewable Energy Laboratory [NREL]); Dave Henderson (DOE); Gardiner Hill (BP); Bill Innes (ExxonMobil Research and Engineering); Scott Jorgensen (General Motors); Nathan Lewis (California Institute of Technology); Margaret Mann (NREL); Lowell Miller (DOE); JoAnn Milliken (DOE); Joan Ogden (Princeton University); Lynn Orr, Jr. (Stanford University); Ralph Overend (NREL); Mark Pastor (DOE); David Pimentel (Cornell University); Dan Reicher (Northern Power Systems and New Energy Capital); Neal Richter (ChevronTexaco); Jens Rostrup-Nielsen (Haldor Topsoe); Dale Simbeck (SFA Pacific); and Joseph Strakey (DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory). The committee offers special thanks to Steve Chalk, DOE Office of Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies, and to Roxanne Danz, DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, for being responsive to its needs for information. In addition, the committee wishes to acknowledge Dale Simbeck and Elaine Chang, both of SFA Pacific, Inc., for providing support as consultants to the committee. Finally, the chair gratefully recognizes the committee members and the staffs of the NRC’s Board on Energy and Environmental Systems and the NAE Program Office for their hard work in organizing and planning committee meetings and their individual efforts in gathering information and writing sections of the report. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confi-

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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs dential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Allen Bard (NAS), University of Texas, Austin; Seymour Baron (NAE), retired, Medical University of South Carolina; Douglas Chapin (NAE), MPR Associates, Inc.; James Corman, Energy Alternative Systems; Francis J. DiSalvo (NAS), Cornell University; Mildred Dresselhaus (NAE, NAS), Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Seth Dunn, Yale School of Management, and School of Forestry & Environmental Studies; David Friedman, Union of Concerned Scientists; Robert Friedman, The Center for the Advancement of Genomics; Robert D. Hall, CDG Management, Inc.; James G. Hansel, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.; H.M. (Hub) Hubbard, retired, Pacific International Center for High Technology Research; Trevor Jones (NAE), Biomec; James R. Katzer (NAE), ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company; Alan Lloyd, California Air Resources Board; John P. Longwell (NAE), retired, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Alden Meyer, Union of Concerned Scientists; Robert W. Shaw, Jr., Aretê Corporation; and Richard S. Stein, (NAS, NAE) retired, University of Massachusetts. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William G. Agnew (NAE), General Motors Corporation (retired). Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   8      Origin of the Study,   8      Department of Energy Offices Involved in Work on Hydrogen,   8      Scope, Organization, and Focus of This Report,   9 2   A FRAMEWORK FOR THINKING ABOUT THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY   11      Overview of National Energy Supply and Use,   11      Energy Transitions,   11      Motivation and Policy Context: Public Benefits of a Hydrogen Energy System,   14      Scope of the Transition to a Hydrogen Energy System,   16      Competitive Challenges,   17      Energy Use in the Transportation Sector,   22      Four Pivotal Questions,   23 3   THE DEMAND SIDE: HYDROGEN END-USE TECHNOLOGIES   25      Transportation,   25      Stationary Power: Utilities and Residential Uses,   30      Industrial Sector,   34      Summary of Research, Development, and Demonstration Challenges for Fuel Cells,   34      Findings and Recommendations,   35 4   TRANSPORTATION, DISTRIBUTION, AND STORAGE OF HYDROGEN   37      Introduction,   37      Molecular Hydrogen as Fuel,   38      The Department of Energy’s Hydrogen Research, Development, and Demonstration Plan,   43      Findings and Recommendations,   43 5   SUPPLY CHAINS FOR HYDROGEN AND ESTIMATED COSTS OF HYDROGEN SUPPLY   45      Hydrogen Production Pathways,   45      Consideration of Hydrogen Program Goals,   46      Cost Estimation Methods,   48      Unit Cost Estimates: Current and Possible Future Technologies,   49

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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs      Comparisons of Current and Future Technology Costs,   54      Unit Atmospheric Carbon Releases: Current and Possible Future Technologies,   58      Well-to-Wheels Energy-Use Estimates,   60      Findings,   60 6   IMPLICATIONS OF A TRANSITION TO HYDROGEN IN VEHICLES FOR THE U.S. ENERGY SYSTEM   64      Hydrogen for Light-Duty Passenger Cars and Trucks: A Vision of the Penetration of Hydrogen Technologies,   65      Carbon Dioxide Emissions as Estimated in the Committee’s Vision,   69      Some Energy Security Impacts of the Committee’s Vision,   73      Other Domestic Resource Impacts Based on the Committee’s Vision,   75      Impacts of the Committee’s Vision for Total Fuel Costs for Light-Duty Vehicles,   79      Summary,   81      Findings,   83 7   CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE   84      The Rationale of Carbon Capture and Storage from Hydrogen Production,   84      Findings and Recommendations,   90 8   HYDROGEN PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES   91      Hydrogen from Natural Gas,   91      Hydrogen from Coal,   93      Hydrogen from Nuclear Energy,   94      Hydrogen from Electrolysis,   97      Hydrogen Produced from Wind Energy,   99      Hydrogen Production from Biomass and by Photobiological Processes,   101      Hydrogen from Solar Energy,   103 9   CROSSCUTTING ISSUES   106      Program Management and Systems Analysis,   106      Hydrogen Safety,   108      Exploratory Research,   110      International Partnerships,   112      Study of Environmental Impacts,   113      Department of Energy Program,   114 10   MAJOR MESSAGES OF THIS REPORT   116      Basic Conclusions,   116      Major Recommendations,   118     REFERENCES   123     APPENDIXES         A  Biographies of Committee Members   129     B  Letter Report   133     C  DOE Hydrogen Program Budget   137     D  Presentations and Committee Meetings   139     E  Spreadsheet Data from Hydrogen Supply Chain Cost Analyses   141     F  U.S. Energy Systems   194     G  Hydrogen Production Technologies: Additional Discussion   198     H  Useful Conversions and Thermodynamic Properties   240

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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs Tables and Figures TABLES 3-1   Key “Demand Parameters” for a Light-Duty Vehicle,   26 3-2   Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales in North America and Worldwide, 1997 to 2002,   28 3-3   Stationary Fuel Cell Systems—Typical Performance Parameters (Current),   32 3-4   Stationary Fuel Cell Systems—Projected Typical Performance Parameters (2020),   32 4-1   Estimated Cost of Elements for Transportation, Distribution, and Off-Board Storage of Hydrogen for Fuel Cell Vehicles—Present and Future,   39 4-2   Goals for Hydrogen On-Board Storage to Achieve Minimum Practical Vehicle Driving Ranges,   42 5-1   Combinations of Feedstock or Energy Source and Scale of Hydrogen Production Examined in the Committee’s Analysis,   46 5-2   Hydrogen Supply Chain Pathways Examined,   47 5-3   Sensitivity of Results of Cost Analysis for Hydrogen Production Pathways to Various Parameter Values,   50 7-1   Estimated Carbon Emissions as Carbon Dioxide Associated with Central Station Hydrogen Production from Natural Gas and Coal,   85 7-2   Estimated Plant Production Costs and Associated Outside-Plant Carbon Costs (in dollars per kilogram of hydrogen) for Central Station Hydrogen Production from Natural Gas and Coal,   87 8-1   An Overview of Nuclear Hydrogen Production Options,   96 8-2   Results from Analysis Calculating Cost and Emissions of Hydrogen Production from Wind Energy,   100 9-1   Selected Properties of Hydrogen and Other Fuel Gases,   109 C-1   DOE Hydrogen Program Planning Levels, FY02-FY04 ($000),   138 E-1   Hydrogen Supply Chain Pathways Examined,   142 E-2   Central Plant Summary of Results,   143 E-3   Central Hydrogen Plant Summary of Inputs,   145 E-4   CS Size Hydrogen Steam Reforming of Natural Gas with Current Technology,   146 E-5   CS Size Hydrogen via Steam Reforming of Natural Gas with Future Optimism,   147

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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs E-6   CS Size Hydrogen via Steam Reforming of Natural Gas Plus CO2 Capture with Current Technology,   148 E-7   CS Size Hydrogen via Steam Reforming of Natural Gas Plus CO2 Capture with Future Optimism,   149 E-8   CS Size Hydrogen via Coal Gasification with Current Technology,   150 E-9   CS Size Hydrogen via Coal Gasification with Future Technology,   151 E-10   CS Size Hydrogen via Coal Gasification with CO2 Capture with Current Technology,   152 E-11   CS Size Hydrogen via Coal Gasification Plus CO2 Capture with Future Optimism,   153 E-12   CS Size Hydrogen via Nuclear Thermal Splitting of Water with Future Optimism,   154 E-13   Gaseous Hydrogen Distributed via Pipeline with Current Technology and Regulations,   155 E-14   Gaseous Hydrogen Distributed via Pipeline with Future Optimism,   156 E-15   Gaseous Pipeline Hydrogen-Based Fueling Stations with Current Technology,   157 E-16   Gaseous Pipeline Hydrogen-Based Fueling Stations with Future Optimism,   158 E-17   Midsize Plants Summary of Results,   159 E-18   Midsize Hydrogen Plant Summary of Inputs and Outputs,   160 E-19   Midsize Hydrogen via Current Steam Methane Reforming Technology,   161 E-20   Midsize Hydrogen via Steam Methane Reforming with Future Optimism,   162 E-21   Midsize Hydrogen via Steam Methane Reforming Plus CO2 Capture with Current Technology,   163 E-22   Midsize Hydrogen via Steam Methane Reforming Plus CO2 Capture with Future Optimism,   164 E-23   Midsize Hydrogen via Current Biomass Gasification Technology,   165 E-24   Midsize Hydrogen via Biomass Gasification with Future Optimism,   166 E-25   Midsize Hydrogen via Current Biomass Gasification Technology with CO2 Capture,   167 E-26   Midsize Hydrogen via Biomass Gasification Technology Plus CO2 Capture with Future Optimism,   168 E-27   Midsize Hydrogen via Electrolysis of Water with Current Technology,   169 E-28   Midsize Hydrogen via Electrolysis of Water with Future Optimism,   170 E-29   Liquid Hydrogen Distribution via Tanker Trucks Based on Current Technology,   171 E-30   Liquid Hydrogen Distribution via Tanker Trucks Based on Future Optimism,   172 E-31   Liquid-Hydrogen-Based Fueling Stations with Current Technology,   173 E-32   Liquid-Hydrogen-Based Fueling Stations with Future Optimism,   174 E-33   Distributed Plant Summary of Results,   176 E-34   Distributed Plant, Onsite Hydrogen Summary of Inputs,   178 E-35   Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Steam Reforming of Natural Gas with Current Technology,   179 E-36   Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Steam Reforming of Natural Gas with Future Optimism,   180 E-37   Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Electrolysis of Water with Current Technology,   181 E-38   Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Electrolysis of Water with Future Optimism,   182 E-39   Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Natural-Gas-Assisted Steam Electrolysis of Water with Future Optimism,   183 E-40   Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Wind-Turbine-Based Electrolysis with Current Technology,   184 E-41   Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Wind-Turbine-Based Electrolysis with Future Optimism,   185 E-42   Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via PV Solar-Based Electrolysis with Current Technology,   186

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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs E-43   Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via PV Solar-Based Electrolysis with Future Optimism,   187 E-44   Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Wind Turbine/Grid Hybrid-Based Electrolysis with Current Costs,   188 E-45   Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Wind Turbine/Grid Hybrid-Based Electrolysis with Future Optimism,   189 E-46   Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via Photovoltaics/Grid Hybrid-Based Electrolysis with Current Costs,   190 E-47   Distributed Size Onsite Hydrogen via PV/Grid Hybrid-Based Electrolysis with Future Optimism,   191 E-48   Photovoltatic Solar Power Generation Economics for Current Technology,   192 E-49   Photovoltatic Solar Power Generation Economics of Future Optimism,   193 F-1   Some Perspective on the Size of the Current Hydrogen and Gasoline Production and Distribution Systems in the United States,   195 G-1   Economics of Conversion of Natural Gas to Hydrogen,   201 G-2   U.S. Natural Gas Consumption and Methane Emissions from Operations, 1990 and 2000,   203 G-3   Nuclear Reactor Options and Their Power Cycle Efficiency,   210 G-4   An Overview of Nuclear Hydrogen Production Options,   211 G-5   Capital Costs of Current Electrolysis Fueler Producing 480 Kilograms of Hydrogen per Day,   221 G-6   All-Inclusive Cost of Hydrogen from Current Electrolysis Fueling Technology,   221 G-7   Cost of Hydrogen from Future Electrolysis Fueling Technology,   222 G-8   Results from Analysis Calculating Cost and Emissions of Hydrogen Production from Wind Energy,   228 G-9   Estimated Cost of Hydrogen Production for Solar Cases,   237 H-1   Conversion Factors,   240 H-2   Thermodynamic Properties of Chemicals of Interest,   240 FIGURES 2-1   U.S. primary energy consumption, historical and projected, 1970 to 2025,   12 2-2   U.S. primary energy consumption, by sector, historical and projected, 1970 to 2025,   12 2-3   U.S. primary energy consumption, by fuel type, historical and projected, 1970 to 2025,   13 2-4   Total U.S. primary energy production and consumption, historical and projected, 1970 to 2025,   13 2-5   Carbon intensity of global primary energy consumption, 1890 to 1995,   14 2-6   Trends and projections in U.S. carbon emissions, by sector and by fuel, 1990 to 2025,   15 2-7   U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide, by sector and fuels, 2000,   16 2-8   Possible combinations of on-board fuels and conversion technologies for personal transportation,   23 2-9   Combinations of fuels and conversion technologies analyzed in this report,   24 3-1   Possible optimistic market scenario showing assumed fraction of hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in the United States, 2000 to 2050,   29 5-1   Unit cost estimates (cost per kilogram of hydrogen) for the “current technologies” state of development for 10 hydrogen supply technologies,   51

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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs 5-2   Cost details underlying estimates for 10 current hydrogen supply technologies in Figure 5-1,   52 5-3   Unit cost estimates for 11 possible future hydrogen supply technologies, including generation by dedicated nuclear plants,   53 5-4   Cost details underlying estimates in Figure 5-3 for 11 future hydrogen supply technologies, including generation by dedicated nuclear plants,   54 5-5   Unit cost estimates for four current and four possible future electrolysis technologies for the generation of hydrogen,   55 5-6   Unit cost estimates for three current and three possible future natural gas technologies for hydrogen generation,   55 5-7   Unit cost estimates for two current and two future possible coal technologies for hydrogen generation,   56 5-8   Unit cost estimates for two current and two possible future biomass-based technologies for hydrogen generation,   56 5-9   Estimates of unit atmospheric carbon release per kilogram of hydrogen produced by 10 current hydrogen supply technologies,   59 5-10   Estimates of unit atmospheric carbon release per kilogram of hydrogen produced by 11 future possible hydrogen supply technologies, including generation by dedicated nuclear plants,   59 5-11   Unit carbon emissions (kilograms of carbon per kilogram of hydrogen) versus unit costs (dollars per kilogram of hydrogen) for various hydrogen supply technologies,   61 5-12   Estimates of well-to-wheels energy use (for 27 miles-per-gallon conventional gasoline-fueled vehicles [CFVs]) with 10 current hydrogen supply technologies,   61 5-13   Estimates of well-to-wheels energy use (for 27 miles-per-gallon conventional gasoline-fueled vehicles [CFVs]) with 11 possible future hydrogen supply technologies, including generation by dedicated nuclear plants,   62 6-1   Demand in the optimistic vision created by the committee: postulated fraction of hydrogen, hybrid, and conventional vehicles, 2000–2050,   67 6-2   Postulated fuel economy based on the optimistic vision of the committee for conventional, hybrid, and hydrogen vehicles (passenger cars and light-duty trucks), 2000–2050,   67 6-3   Light-duty vehicular use of hydrogen, 2000–2050, based on the optimistic vision of the committee,   68 6-4   Gasoline use by light-duty vehicles with or without hybrid and hydrogen vehicles, 2000–2050, based on the optimistic vision of the committee,   68 6-5   Gasoline use cases based on the committee’s optimistic vision compared with Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections of oil supply, demand, and imports, 2000–2050,   69 6-6   Projections by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the volume of carbon releases, by sector and by fuel, in selected years from 1990 to 2025,   70 6-7   Estimated volume of carbon releases from passenger cars and light-duty trucks: current hydrogen production technologies (fossil fuels), 2000–2050,   71 6-8   Estimated volume of carbon releases from passenger cars and light-duty trucks: possible future hydrogen production technologies (fossil fuels and nuclear energy), 2000–2050,   71 6-9   Estimated volume of carbon releases from passenger cars and light-duty trucks: current hydrogen production technologies (electrolysis and renewables), 2000–2050,   72 6-10   Estimated volume of carbon releases from passenger cars and light-duty trucks: possible future hydrogen production technologies (electrolysis and renewables), 2000–2050,   72

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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs 6-11   Estimated amounts of natural gas to generate hydrogen (current and possible future hydrogen production technologies) compared with projections by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of natural gas supply, demand, and imports, 2010–2050,   74 6-12   Estimated gasoline use reductions compared with natural gas (NG) use increases: current hydrogen production technologies, 2010–2050,   74 6-13   Estimated gasoline use reductions compared with natural gas (NG) use increases: possible future hydrogen production technologies, 2010–2050,   75 6-14   Estimated amounts of coal used to generate hydrogen (current and possible future hydrogen production technologies) compared with Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections of coal production and use, 2010–2050,   76 6-15   Estimated land area used to grow biomass for hydrogen: current and possible future hydrogen production technologies, 2010–2050,   77 6-16   Estimated annual amounts of carbon dioxide sequestered from supply chain for automobiles powered by hydrogen: current hydrogen production technologies, 2010–2050,   77 6-17   Estimated cumulative amounts of carbon dioxide sequestered from supply chain for automobiles powered by hydrogen: current hydrogen production technologies, 2010–2050,   78 6-18   Estimated annual amounts of carbon dioxide sequestered from supply chain for automobiles powered by hydrogen: possible future hydrogen production technologies, 2010–2050,   78 6-19   Estimated cumulative amounts of carbon dioxide sequestered from supply chain for automobiles powered by hydrogen: possible future hydrogen production technologies, 2010–2050,   79 6-20   Estimated total annual fuel costs for automobiles: current hydrogen production technologies (fossil fuels), 2000–2050,   80 6-21   Estimated total annual fuel costs for light-duty vehicles: current hydrogen production technologies (electrolysis and renewables), 2000–2050,   81 6-22   Estimated total annual fuel costs for light-duty vehicles: possible future hydrogen production technologies (fossil fuels and nuclear energy), 2000–2050,   82 6-23   Estimated total annual fuel costs for light-duty vehicles: possible future hydrogen production technologies (electrolysis and renewables), 2000–2050,   82 7-1   Feedstocks used in the current global production of hydrogen,   85 F-1   World fossil energy resources,   195 F-2   Annual production scenarios for the mean resource estimate showing sharp and rounded peaks, 1900–2125,   196 G-1   Schematic representation of the steam methane reforming process,   199 G-2   Estimated investment costs for current and possible future hydrogen plants (with no carbon sequestration) of three sizes,   202 G-3   Estimated costs for conversion of natural gas to hydrogen in plants of three sizes, current and possible future cases, with and without sequestration of CO2,   202 G-4   Estimated effects of the price of natural gas on the cost of hydrogen at plants of three sizes using steam methane reforming,   204 G-5   Power cycle net efficiency (ηel) and thermal-to-hydrogen efficiency (ηH) for the gas turbine modular helium reactor (He) high-temperature electrolysis of steam (HTES) and the supercritical CO2 (S-CO2) advanced gas-cooled reactor HTES technologies,   212 G-6   The energy needs for hydrogen production by the gas turbine modular helium reactor (He cycle) high-temperature electrolysis of steam (HTES) and the supercritical CO2 (S-CO2 cycle) advanced gas-cooled reactor HTES technologies,   213

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The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs G-7   Depiction of the most promising sulfur thermochemical cycles for water splitting,   214 G-8   Estimated thermal-to-hydrogen efficiency (ηH) of the sulfur-iodine (SI) process and thermal energy required to produce a kilogram of hydrogen from the modular high-temperature reactor-SI technology,   215 G-9   Electrolysis cell stack energy consumption as a function of cell stack current density,   220 G-10   Sensitivity of the cost of hydrogen from distributed electrolysis to the price of input electricity,   223 G-11   Wind generating capacity, 1981–2002, world and U.S. totals,   225 G-12   Hydrogen from wind power availability,   226 G-13   Efficiency of biological conversion of solar energy,   230 G-14   Geographic distribution of projected bioenergy crop plantings on all acres in 2008 in the production management scenario,   231 G-15   Best research cell efficiencies for multijunction concentrator, thin-film, crystalline silicon, and emerging photovoltaic technologies,   236