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Forensic Analysis Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence (2004)
Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology (BCST)

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. "Appendix F: Simulating False Match Probabilities Based on Normal Theory." Forensic Analysis Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2004.

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Forensic Analysis Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence

the 1,373-bullet subset. The third line is Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient on the entire 1,837-bullet subset (some bullets had only three, four, five, or six elements measured). The fourth line gives the number of pairs in Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient calculation. All three sets of correlation coefficients are highly consistent with each other. Regardless of the method used to estimate the linear association between elements, associations between As and Sb, between As and Sn, between Sb and Sn, and between Ag and Bi are rather high. Because the 1,837-bullet subset is not a random sample from any population, we refrain from stating a level of “significance” for these values, noting only that regardless of the method used to estimate the linear association between elements, associations between As and Sb, between As and Sn, between Sb and Sn, and between Ag and Bi are higher than those for the other 17 pairs of elements.

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