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Forensic Analysis Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence (2004)
Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology (BCST)

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. "Appendix H: Principal Components Analysis: How Many Elements Should Be Measured?." Forensic Analysis Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence . Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2004.

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Forensic Analysis Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence

TABLE H.7 Principal Components Analysis on All Six-Element Subsets of 1,373-Bullet Subset. Elements 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 are As, Sb, Sn, Cu, Bi, Ag, and Cd, respectively. Row labels 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 represent the first principal component through sixth, and the rows show the total variation due to each successive element included in the subset.

 

123456

123457

123467

123567

124567

134567

234567

1

77.172

77.635

77.399

77.620

28.643

74.472

72.411

2

97.157

104.232

103.993

104.216

54.571

101.046

98.887

3

105.322

124.172

123.494

124.159

63.118

113.817

115.215

4

107.934

132.307

131.628

132.294

65.721

116.590

117.872

5

109.605

134.779

133.731

134.494

67.385

118.314

119.543

6

109.946

136.411

134.087

134.951

67.726

118.656

119.885

TABLE H.8 Total Variance (Compare with 136.944 Total Variance) for Six-Component Subsets, in Order of Increasing Variance

124567

123456

134567

234567

123467

123567

123457

67.726

109.946

118.656

119.885

134.087

134.951

136.411

49.45%

80.28%

86.65%

87.54%

97.91%

98.54%

99.61%

TABLE H.9 Principal Components Analysis on all Seven-Element Subsets of 1,373-Bullet Subset. Elements 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 are As, Sb, Sn, Cu, Bi, Ag, and Cd, respectively. Row labels 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 represent the first principal component through sixth, and the rows show the total variation due to each successive element included in the subset.

 

1234567

1

77.64703

2

104.24395

3

124.20241

4

132.33795

5

134.94053

6

136.60234

7

136.94360

Summary:

 

3 elements: 237

(83.6% of total variance)

4 elements: 1237

(96.07% of total variance)

5 elements: 12357

(98.16% of total variance) or 12347 (97.52%)

6 elements: 123567

(99.61% of total variance) or 123457 (98.54%) (Bi-Ag correlation)

7 elements: 1234567

(100.00% of total variance)

REFERENCES

1. Koons, R. D. and Grant, D. M. J. Foren.. Sci. 2002, 47(5), 950.

2. Randich, E.; Duerfeldt, W.; McLendon, W.; and Tobin, W. Foren. Sci. Int. 2002, 127, 174–191.

3. Peele, E. R.; Havekost, D. G.; Peters, C. A.; and Riley, J. P. USDOJ (ISBN 0-932115-12-8), 57, 1991.

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