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8 Funding Priorides for a National Program Realizing the Vision This report provides a vision for a national strategy for mitigation of landslide hazards, expanding on the strategy outline presented in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) proposal (Spiker and Gori, 2000~. Experience with landslides and advances in landslide research in the past decades have led to a better understanding of the physical processes of landslides, their potential consequences, and the means for reducing losses. Despite these advances, many gaps remain and attention to landslide risks in much of the country is haphazard at best. The vision of this report is one of a comprehensive national program that establishes a strong leadership role for the federal government but is based on part- nerships with states, localities, and the research community, and empha- sizes the translation of knowledge into practical applications. 8.1 FEDERAL FUNDING LEVELS A comprehensive national program for addressing landslide risks requires a considerably increased level of federal funding for landslide partnership programs compared with current funding levels, and the committee believes that this ultimately will require more than the $20 mil- lion envisioned as the target budget for the USGS Landslide Hazards Program in the national strategy proposal (Spiker and Gori, 2000~. The committee recognizes the reality that national budgetary considerations will determine the total annual funding provided to implement the strat- egy and emphasizes that it is the distribution of total available funding 98

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FUNDING PRIORITIES FOR A NATIONAL PROGRAM 99 among the different components that is of paramount importance for an appropriately balanced national program. This recommendation for substantially increased funding can be use- fully compared with the current and recommended funding for National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP). For this comparison, useful benchmarks are provided by a recent earthquake loss reduction research and action plan prepared by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) (EERI, 2003~. Federal funding for the NEHRP program as of FY 2001 was approximately $100 million, distributed across the four partner agencies: USGS (48%), National Science Foundation (NSF) (30%), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) (20%), and National Institute of Standards and Technology (2%~. The EERI research and action plan recommended annualized federal funding of $358 million for the first 5 years of a 20-year period (EERI, 2003~. Annualized losses from earthquakes in the United States have been estimated as ranging from $4.1 billion (direct damage only) to $10 billion (including indirect losses), compared with estimated average annual losses from landslides of approxi- mately $1 billion to $3 billion (NRC, 1985; Schuster and Highland, 2001~. The landslide program funding level proposed here is equal to 20% of current earthquake funding and 5% of the EERI proposed funding level for a 20-year program of earthquake research and applications. 8.2 FUNDING PRIORITIES The committee recognizes that the program proposed here requires a substantial funding increase that, for maximum efficacy, should be phased in over several years. In addition, it is important to recognize that the funding requirements of the program will change over its life. The national strategy proposal (Spiker and Gori, 2000) identified goals and implemen- tation actions for a 10-year time scale, and accordingly, the following description of funding levels uses the perspective of a 10-year program. The proposed funding levels for such a program are based on three periods: (1) an initial funding phase of $20 million per year for three years; (2) an established program phase for three years of $35 million per year; and (3) a mature program period of $50 million per year for four years. As the program progresses from the initial, through established, to mature phases, the funding priorities also change from an initial emphasis on research, development of guidelines, and startup, to the later widespread implementation of landslide risk reduction measures through various partnership programs. Table 8.1 provides a summary that compares the USGS proposed funding levels (Spiker and Gori, 2000) with the funding levels proposed

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100 PARTNERSHIPS FOR REDUCING LANDSLIDE RISK TABLE 8.1 Proposed Funding Levels for a National Landslide Hazards Mitigation Program (million dollars) Proposed Annual Funding Program Element USGS Proposed Annual Funding Initial (Years 1-3) Established Mature (Years 4-6) (Years 7-10) Process mechanics 1.5 Monitoring techniques 2 Loss and risk assessment O methods Mapping techniques 2 Hazard identification and 12 state mapping Mitigation measures and O programs Learning from Landslides O Enhancing professional O capabilities Program management and 2.5 staffing Total n 12 o o n 20 2 2 3 2 2 3 1 3 3 1 4 10 15 2 7 20 1 3 4 2 2 2 3 5 20 35 50 here for each of the three phases of a 10-year program. These figures are based on the committee's expert opinion regarding necessary funding levels for each of the program elements. Initial Funding Phase (Years 1-3) $20 million Annually. The emphasis during the initial funding phase would be on initiating a federal program, establishing the essential partnerships for carrying out the program, and developing the research and application foundation for the program. Established Funding Phase (Years 4-64- $35 million Annually. The empha- sis once the federal program is established would be on moving the research and guidelines toward practical application through increased emphasis on cooperative mapping programs, demonstration programs concerning mitigation measures, and enhancement of professional capa- bilities. Mature Funding Phase (Years 7-104- $50 million Annually. The empha- sis for the mature level of funding would be on sustaining the established

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FUNDING PRIORITIES FOR A NATIONAL PROGRAM 10 initiatives with increased emphasis on translation of knowledge into prac- tical applications involving risk management and mitigation programs that would be undertaken cooperatively with states and localities. Federal funds would be used for dissemination of guidelines and best practices, outreach efforts to encourage mitigation and loss reduction efforts at state and local levels, and cooperative mapping and demonstration programs. Federal funds are not anticipated as being used, other than as part of demonstration programs, to mitigate specific landslide risks. 8.3 FUNDING ALLOCATIONS A different way of thinking about the recommended funding targets is to consider how the recommended federal funding might relate to the federal, state, local, and other partnerships that the committee envisions. Table 8.2 illustrates how the committee's proposed program targets could be allocated among different program partners across the three phases of a 10-year program. The basic and applied research elements of the proposed strategy (process mechanics, monitoring, loss and risk assessment methods, and mapping techniques) are expected to be undertaken by a combination of intramural and extramural federally funded research. An important addi- tional component of this research is the possibility of funding a landslide risk science and technology research center. Loss data information and TABLE 8.2 Allocation of Federal Funds Among Partners (million dollars) Proposed Annual Funding Partnership Element Initial (Years 1-3) Established Mature (Years 4-6) (Years 7-10) Intramural and extramural federal research Landslide research center Loss data - Learning from Landslides State mapping partnerships Local and non-government mitigation 2 partnerships Other educational outreach Federal program management Total 7 3 1 3 2 2 2 2 4 10 15 7 20 1 3 4 2 3 5 20 35 50

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102 PARTNERSHIPS FOR REDUCING LANDSLIDE RISK consequences are anticipated as being collected as part of a Learning from Landslides program. Hazard and susceptibility mapping would be under- taken through the proposed cooperative federal-state mapping program. Hazard mitigation activities are envisioned as central to the proposed local and nongovernmental mitigation partnership. Educational outreach is envisioned as being undertaken through a variety of specialized grant programs.