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Jobs, Migration, and Emerging Urban Mismatches JOHN D. K ASARDA Spatial disparities in economic growth and corresponding migra- tion adjustments have been constant features of our nation's devel- opment. As more efficient transportation and communication tech- nologies evolve, modes of production organization and services are transformed; labor and natural resource requirements of industry change; and locational advantages shift, with new areas of oppor- tunity rising while others decline. America's people, in turn, have tended to follow opportunity. In particular, this tendency has been the case for our nation's disadvantaged who historically have fled areas experiencing economic distress (often characterized by a sub- stantial labor surplus relative to jobs) for areas of better opportunity. Indeed, it is not mere chance the three great symbols of opportunity for the disadvantaged in America all represent migration the Statue of Liberty, the underground railway, and the covered wagon. One consequence of the constant search of Americans for eco- nomic opportunity and a better life is that cities, suburbs, non- metropolitan areas, and entire regions have frequently experienced uneven demographic growth. Before World War IT the metropolitan areas of the Northeast and Midwest contained the majority of the nation's inclustrial locational advantages (excellent deep-water ports, extensive railroad and inland waterway systems, well-developed inter- and intrametropolitan highways, proximity to rich coal deposits, ubiquitous public utilities, a diverse and relatively better-educated 148

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JOBS, MIGRATION, AND EMERGING URBAN MISMATCHES 149 labor force, and strong local markets). Such externalities provided firms locating in metropolitan areas of the North with competitive cost and market advantages that allowed them to expand much faster than their counterparts in more isolated, less-developed regions of the South and West. In fact, as late as 1950, more than 70 percent of all manufacturing jobs were in the Northeast and Midwest, mostly concentrated in and around the largest cities. Since World War IT a number of economic, political, and tech- nological forces have combined to accelerate industrial restructuring and shift the nation's employment growth pole first to the West and then to the South. The rapid postwar growth of aerospace, defense, solid-state electronics, and other advanced technology in- dustries, together with expanding construction and services, fueled the economies of the Far West, especially California. Growth of these industries was instrumental in attracting over 3 million migrants to California alone between 1945-1960 (Bureau of the Census, 1975b). With diversified economic expansion continuing in the West, the region's total employment doubled during 1960 1985. Nevertheless, the South emerged in the 1960s as the nation's leader in absolute employment gains. Between 196~1985, the South added 17 million jobs to its economy, compared with a growth of just over 11 million in the West. During the same period, the Midwest added 7.3 million and the Northeast just over 5 million jobs (Bureau of the Census, 1960, 1985~. The South's econorn~c surge has been attributed to its improved accessibility to national and international markets through newer interstate highway systems and expanded airports; shifting energy sources; upgraded public schools and universities; more modern phys- ical plants; a sunny, benign climate; and relatively lower taxes and wage rates (Cobb, 1984; Goldfield, 1982~. To these technological and financial considerations were added healthy doses of progrowth atti- tudes and industrial solicitation on the part of southern states and communities (Cobb, 1982; Kasarda, 1980~. Thus, while manufactur- ing employment in the Frostbelt (Northeast and Midwest regions) declined by over a million jobs between 1960-1985, manufacturing employment in the South grew by over 2 million. Moreover, em- ployment growth in southern manufacturing was far overshadowed by substantial increases in construction, trade, en c! services, which added more than 15 million jobs to the South's economy between 1960-1985 (Bureau of the Census, 1960, 1985~. The expanding post-WorId War II economies of the West and

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150 John D. Kasarda South sequentially attracted major streams of migrants. The net interregional migration exchanges for the past three decades pre- sented in Table 1 reflect the nation's shifting demographic growth poles from the West to the South. Before 1970 the West was the net beneficiary of migration streams from all census regions. These streams were especially large during the 1950s. During the 1970s the Current Population Survey indicates that more persons from the West began moving to the South than vice versa, while net flows from the Northeast and Midwest to the South rose dramatically. Be- tween 1975-1980, overall net migration to the South was double that to the West. Spurred by a marked increase in net flows from the Midwest, net migration to the South was nearly triple that to the West between 1980-1985 (1.9 million versus 649,000~. During the past 15 years the Northeast and Midwest have experienced combined net migration losses of 8 million people, most of whom moved to the South. Since 1980 the Midwest has experienced a net migration loss of 1.5 million, of which 1.1 million may be attributed to this region's negative exchange with the South. The research literature points to a complex of interacting factors that have transformed the South from a net exporter of people until the early 1950s to a demographic magnet in the 1970s and 1980s. These factors include: (1) a sun-seeking retirement population whose priorate pensions, Social Security payments, and other sources of in- come free them from their previous work locations; (2) the intros auction and spread of central air-conditioning systems that permit far more comfortable summertime living and working conditions; (3) life-style changes oriented to more recreation and year-round out- door activities; (4) changing racial attitudes permitting blacks and Hispanics new opportunities to participate in mainstream southern institutions; (5) more progressive political orientations; (6) generally lower costs for land, living, and amenities; (7) a major improvement in the quantity and quality of consumer services brought about by rising personal incomes; and (8) the emergence of the South as an economic growth pole for the reasons mentioned earlier in this paper (for additional discussion, see Kasarda, 1980~. What about the demographic composition of the migrants? Ta- ble 2 shows the net interregional migration exchanges between 1975- 1980, and between 1980-1985, by race and ethnicity. These ex- changes, which were computed from the machine-readable files of the Bureau of the Census' Current Population Survey, show that

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JOBS, MIGRATION, AND EMERGING URBAN MIS~4TCHES TABLE 1 Net Interregional Migration Flows (in thousands), 1955-1985 151 Regional Net Migration (in thousands) Exchanges 1955-1960a 1965-1970b 1970-1975C 1975-1980d 1980-1985 South with Northeast 314 438 964 945 737 Midwest 122 275 790 813 1,100 West -380 -56 75 176 60 Total other regions 56 657 1,829 1,935 1,897 West with Northeast 285 224 311 518 234 Midwest 760 415 472 634 475 South 380 56 -75 -176 -60 Total other regions 1,425 695 708 976 649 Midwest with Northeast 40 53 67 146 50 South -122 -275 -790 -813 -1,100 West -760 -415 -472 -634 -475 Total other regions -842 -637 - 1,195 - 1,302 - 1,525 Northeast with Midwest -40 -53 -67 -146 -50 South -314 -438 -964 -945 -737 West -285 -224 -311 -518 -234 Total other regions -639 -715 - 1,342 -1,609 -1,022 NOTE: Some columns do not sum precisely because of rounding. bFrom Bureau of the Census (1963:Table 237~. c From Bureau of the Census ~ 1973:Table 274) . -dFrom Bureau of the Census (1975c). e From Bureau of the Census ~ 1980b) . -From Bureau of the Census (1985~. non-Hispanic whites accounted for nearly 90 percent of the net south- ern migration gains from other regions. Indeed, both the absolute number and the percentage of net migrants to the South who were non-Hispanic whites rose from the 1975-1980 period to the 1980- 1985 period. In the West, on the other hand, there has been a substantial decline in the number and percentage of net inmigration accounted for by non-Hispanic whites. Much of this decrease is due

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152 John D. Ka~a~da to a dramatic decline in the migration of non-Hispanic whites from the Northeast from the 1975-1980 period to the 1980-1985 period. Of related interest, the net return of non-Hispanic blacks to the South from other regions declined from 194,()00 between 1975-1980 to 87,000 between 1980-1985, with most of this slowdown due to a drop in the number of black migrants (59,000) from the Northeast. Furthermore, the migration of non-Hispanic blacks from the South to the Northeast increased by 50,000 between the 1975-1980 and 1980-1985 periods. Table 2 also reveals the accelerating loss of non-Hispanic whites from the Midwest. Between 1980-1985, the Midwest experienced a negative net migration exchange of nearly 1.4 million non-Hispanic whites with other regions of the country, compared with a net loss of 1.2 million between 1975 and 1980. The accelerated out-migration of non-Hispanic whites from the Midwest was due largely to an increase in this region's negative net exchange with the South. Another migration stream of growing importance is movers from abroad. Table 3 shows these movers, by region, for a series of 5- year periods between 1955-1960 and 1980-1985. Two trends are immediately apparent. First, there has been a substantial increase in the total number of movers to the United States during the past three decades. Second, since 1965 virtually all of the increase has been captured by the West and the South, with the West pulling ahead of the South as the primary destination. Between 1975-1985, over 2.8 million persons from abroad moved to the West, 2.3 million moved to the South, 1.7 million moved to the Northeast, and slightly over 1 million moved to the Midwest. In fact, since 1980 the West has gained more than twice as many movers from abroad as from the other regions of the nation. A more detailed analysis of these data by race and ethnicity shows that during the last 10 years the West has received approx- imately 1 million Asian immigrants, more than all other regions combined. The vast majority of Asian immigrants have settled in California. The West has also been the largest receiver of Hispanic immigrants, gaining over 900,000 between 1975-1985. The South has exhibited major increases in Hispanic immigrants during the 1980s, falling closely behind the West. The South also registered increases in Asian immigrants but still trails the West substantially as the regional destination of this group. Between the 1975-1980 and 1980-1985 periods, Hispanic immigrants to the Northeast and

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154 TABLE 3 Moorers from Abroad (in thousands) by Region, 1955-1985 John D. KaJarda Region 1955-1960a 1965-1970b 1970-1975C 1975-1980d 1980-1985e Northeast 592 821 903 834 832 Midwest 361 440 638 590 457 South 505 740 1,082 1,164 1,180 West 545 697 980 1,475 1,387 bFrom Bureau of the Census (1963:Table 237~. c From Bureau of the Census (1977:Table 274~. -~From Bureau of the Census ~ 1975c). e From Bureau of the Census (1980b). -From Bureau of the Census (1985b). Midwest increased modestly, while Asian immigrants to these regions declined slightly. The shift in regional residence of movers from abroad during the past three decades reflects a major change in the principal countries of origin of such movers. Until the late 1950s the origin of most U.S. immigrants was in Europe, geographically to the east and north of the United States. The majority of immigrants therefore found their closest ports of entry in New York and other northern states. During the past two decades the territorial locus of origin nations has increasingly shifted to the west and south of the United States (principally Mexico, Latin America, and Asia). As a result, Los Angeles, San Etrancisco, Miami, and Houston have become primary ports of immigrant entry. Between 1970-1983, more than a million Hispanics, Asians, and other foreign-born persons settled in Los Angeles County (Muller and Espenshade, 1986), lending empirical credence to anecdotal reports that Los Angeles has replaced New York City as the exemplary smelting pot" of the nation. With increased immigration supplementing substantial internal net migration flows to the South and West, population growth in these regions has dwarfed that of the Northeast and Midwest. Table 4 describes population change in each region between 1975-1980, and between 1980-1985, by race and ethnicity. Over the past 10 years, the South has added 12.3 million residents, the West has added 8.8 million, the Midwest 2.2 million, and the Northeast 1.2 million. Further examination of Table 4 shows that, between both 1975-1980 and 1980-1985, the South and West have accounted-for more than 85 percent of the nation's population growth. Table 4 also illustrates significant racial/ethnic differences in

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156 John D. Kasarda regional population growth. The Northeast is the only region to experience an absolute and percentage increase in population dur- ing the 1980s compared with the latter half of the 1970s, yet its non-Hispanic white population losses accelerated. Between 198(~ 1985, the non-Hispanic white population of the Northeast declined by 554,000, while the region's Hispanic population expanded by 773,000, its black population increased by 475,000, and its Asian population expanded by 90,000. The population increase that occurred in the Midwest during the first half of the 1980s also was predominantly through increases in that region's minority populations. On the other hand, the South and the West experienced major growth of their non-Hispanic white populations between 1975-1985. An aggregate comparison of the Frostbelt (Northeast and Midwest) with the Sunbelt (South and West) reveals that, between 1975-1985, the Sunbelt added 11.64 million non-Hispanic whites, whereas the Frostbelt lost 371,000 non- Hispanic whites. The Sunbelt also added more minorities than did the Frostbelt, although absolute differences in minority population growth were not nearly as striking as they were for non-Hispanic whites. Along with racial/ethnic changes of migration flows among re- gions, there have been changes in the racial/ethnic composition of metropolitan central cities, suburbs, and nonmetropolitan areas of each region. Table 5 presents these composition changes from 1975- 1985. With modest growth in the black, Asian, and Hispanic pop- ulations, and absolute declines in non-Hispanic whites, the minority proportion of central cities in the Northeast grew from 33 percent to 42 percent during this period. In the Midwest, central-city minority proportions increased from 28 percent to 36 percent. Concurrently, central cities in the South exhibited monotonic rises in their over- all minority proportions, primarily through growth in the number of Hispanics. Substantial growth in the Hispanic and Asian populations occurred in western central cities. Indeed, increases in the number of Hispanics and Asians in these cities were so substantial between 1975-1985 that, despite an absolute increase in the number of blacks there during the period, the black proportion of central-city tote] population fell by nearly 3 percent. The racial/ethnic compositions and compositional changes that occurred between 1975-1985 in the metropolitan suburban rings and nonmetropolitan areas reveal some striking interregional contrasts. In the Northeast and Midwest, non-Hispanic whites constitute more

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158 John D. Ka~a~da than 90 percent of the suburban populations of these regions and more than 95 percent of their nonmetropolitan populations. These percentages changed very little between 1975-1985. In the South and West, the minority percentages of the population in the suburban rings and nonmetropolitan areas were much higher. The growth of black, Asian, and Hispanic populations in the suburban rings of southern metropolitan areas increased the minority percentage in these areas from 15 percent to 21 percent between 1975-1985. The minority percentage in western metropolitan suburbs concurrently rose from 20 percent to 26 percent. L`ed by a steady growth in the Asian population, minority per- centages of nonmetropolitan areas in the West increased from 15 percent to 18 percent during 1975-1985. In the South, minority per- centages of nonmetropolitan areas remained constant at slightly over 21 percent. It is important to emphasize that, although the overall minority proportions of central cities in the four regions are similar, there are significant differences between the Frostbelt and Sunbelt regions in their suburban and nonmetropolitan minority proportions. In 1985, the highest overall minority percentage In the metropolitan suburbs or nonmetropolitan areas of the Frostbeit was 8.9 percent in Northeast suburbs. Conversely, the lowest overall suburban or nonmetropolitan minority proportion in the Sunbelt was 18 percent, which was registered in nonmetropolitan areas of the West. Clearly, then, minorities are less confined to central cities in the South and West than in the Northeast or Midwest. Recent minority immigrant locational trends reinforced these relative differences in minority confinement. Between 1975-1985, most minority immigrants to the Northeast and Midwest settled in the central cities of metropolitan areas, whereas in the South and West, most have settled in the suburban rings and nonmetropolitan areas. As we will see later, such settlement patterns have important implications for entry-level job opportunities for minorities. COMPETITIVE EFFECTS AND REGIONAL GROWTH A fundamental reason for the substantial growth of the South and West during the past decade has been the ability of their economies to weather recessions better than those of the Northeast and Mid- west. In accounting for differential local and regional econorn~c per- formance during economic downturns, industry mix has received a

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188 John D. Canards men residing in central cities in the Northeast and Midwest may be quickly seen. Corresponding black male unemployment and labor force non- participation rates tend not to be as high in the central cities of the South and West. For one reason, recall that these cities have ex- perienced relatively fewer blue-collar job losses during the past two decades, and some cities have added large numbers of jobs in indus- tries that do not require substantial education in their work forces. Moreover, the West, which has the lowest combined unemployment and labor force nonparticipation rates for black men, is also the only region in which the educational distribution of black men is skewed toward the upper end (see Table 13~. It is not fortuitous, then, that black males residing in central cities of the West also showed the smallest increases in rates of unemployment and rates of labor force nonparticipation between 196~1985. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY ISSUES A key policy construct developed in the preceding sections is "mismatch," which is defined as a discordant distribution of labor qualifications vis-a-vis the qualifications required for available jobs at a particular point in time. Mismatch has both nonspatial (nation- wide) and spatially specific (community) aspects. The nonspatial aspect results from transformations in the overall economy from an industrial to a postindustrial base and the corresponding shrinking demands for traditional blue-collar labor (Bell, 1973; Singlemann, 19783. A tacit assumption in much of the literature on postindustrial society is that, through the interplay of market forces, displaced labor will adapt to the transforming economy by "shifting" from one sector to another (e.g., from manufacturing to services). Appropriate skills will eventually be acquired or sufficient numbers of service-sector jobs (both Tow-skill and high-skill) will be created, absorbing the displaced and relieving the mismatch. This, of course, has been slow to happen in the United States, giving credence to those who argue that some structural unemployment will remain a permanent feature of the national economy. Spatially specific mismatches emerge in those areas in which transformations in local employment bases occur faster than their local labor can adapt, either through retraining or relocation. These mismatches are most apparent in larger, older cities in the North in which declines in traditional blue-collar industries and the growth

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JOBS, MIGRATION, AND EMERGING URBAN MISMATCHES 189 of information-processing industries have been rapid and substan- tial. So different are the skills used and the education required in these growing as opposed to declining urban industrial sectors that adaptation by the displaced is exceedingly difficult. This difficulty is concretely represented in the exceptionally high unemployment rates of those central-city residents who have not completed high school, regardless of race, and the widening gap over time between the central-city unemployment rates of the poorly and the better educated. It follows from the above that unemployment rates and labor force dropout rates will be higher for resident groups whose educa- tional distributions are inconsistent with the changing job opportu- nity structures of their localities. Such circumstances are particularly the case for black men (aged 16 or older) in major cities in the North who are most concentrated in the education-completed category in which matching local jobs are contracting (less than high-schooT degree) and least represented in the education-completed category in which local jobs are expanding (some higher education typically required). Exacerbating resident labor force job opportunity mismatches have been recent demographic trends in these cities. During the past two decades, northern cities that lost the largest numbers of blue- collar and other jobs with Tow educational requisites simultaneously added large numbers of poorly educated minorities to their work- ing age population. This demographic phenomenon, which contrasts sharply with that anticipated on the basis of market equilibrium models, leads to an important policy question: What is continuing to attract and/or hold large numbers of less skilled minorities in urban centers while employment opportunities appropriate to their skills are disappearing? To be sure, such factors as racial discrimi- nation, a lack of sufficient low-income housing in outlying areas, and the dependence of low-income minorities on public transportation account for a significant part of the explanation. There is also the vast urban underground economy that enables many of those dis- placed from the mainstream economy to survive. Indeed, for many who lack the educational, technical, or interpersonal skills for em- ployment in mainstream institutions, the inner city may provide the only environment in which they can stay afloat economically. It has been suggested elsewhere (Kasarda, 1983, 1985) that cer- tain public policies may also be anchoring disadvantaged persons in areas of rapid blue-collar job decline. These policies are based

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190 Jot D. Kasarda on the seemingly reasonable principle of spatially targeting public assistance: areas of the greatest economic distress (measured by such factors as poverty rates and persistent unemployment) receive the largest allocations of funds for public housing, community nutri- tional and health care, and other locationally focused government aid (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 1978, 1980~. Formula-based community assistance programs have also been intro- duced such that the greater a locality's employment loss or other indicator of economic distress, the more federal aid it could receive (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 1980, 1984; Swanson and Vogel, 1986~. Thus, as the blue-collar employment bases of cities have withered, additional public assistance has been provided, serving as a partial subsistence surrogate for many of those displaced from the economic mainstream (for data, see Kasarda, 1985~. Although these policies helped relieve certain problems associ- ated with declining blue-collar job bases (e.g., the inability of the unemployed to afford private sector housing or adequate nutrition and health care), they did nothing to reduce the growing skills mis- match between the resident labor force and available jobs. In fact, such spatially targeted assistance may have inadvertently increased the mismatch and the plight of the poor by bonding distressed people to distressed places. For those with some resources and for the fortunate portion of that population whose efforts break the bonds of dependency, spatially concentrated public assistance may not impede mobility. But for many inner-city poor without skills, local concentrations of public assistance and community services can be sticking forces. With a low perceived marginal utility of migration relative to the opportunity costs of giving up their in-place assistance, they see themselves as better off staying where they are. Yet such immobility is detrimental to the longer term economic prospects of both the unemployed and the places in which they re- side. Imagine, for instance, what knight have happened in the first half of this century if the millions of structurally displaced southern- ers who migrated to economically expanding northern cities in search of jobs and a better life had been sustained in their distressed com- munities by public assistance. It is possible that many would never have moved, and the significant advances in income levels and living standards that the South and its out-migrants eventually attained would not have occurred.

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JOBS, MIGRATION, AND EMERGING URBAN MISMATCHES 191 Circumstances in today's distressed inner-city areas are roughly analogous. These areas are characterized by excesses of structurally displaced labor as their blue-collar job bases wither. Large concentra- tions of the unemployed who are increasingly dependent on welfare or the underground economy, or both, pose negative externalities (crime, alcoholism, drug abuse, loitering, vandalism) that further dissuade new businesses from locating nearby. Eventually, neigh- borhood deterioration and residential abandonment will probably thin out the population to the extent that spatially extensive pri- vate sector reinvestment becomes feasible. This process often takes a generation or more, however, and in the meantime it imposes heavy social and economic costs on the city and on those remaining. To alleviate the problems engendered by excesses of structurally displaced labor in inner-city areas of decline, some have suggested a national development bank, a new Reconstruction Finance Corpo- ration, enterprise zones, or government-business-labor partnerships that might ~reindustrialize" these areas or otherwise rebuild their blue-collar employment bases (see Butler, 1981; Hanson, 1983; Ro- hatyn, 1979, 1981; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Devel- opment, 1978, 1980, 1984~. Such jobs-to-people strategies may be as unrealistic in terms of their objective as they are nostalgic. The government subsidies, tax incentives, and regulatory relief contained in existing and proposed urban policies are not nearly sufficient to overcome technological and market forces that are redistributing ur- ban blue-collar jobs and shaping the economies of our major cities. Economic advancement of cities and maximum job creation can best be accomplished through private and public initiatives that promote information-processing and other advanced service sector industries whose functions are consistent with the roles computer-age cities most effectively perform. Cities that are proactive in capitalizing on their emerging service sector roles should experience renewed overall employment growth, as, it has been noted, is already occurring in Boston and New York City. But if large portions of their residents lack the appropriate education to be hired by information processing and other white- collar service industries beginning to dominate urban employment bases, the plight of the poorly educated could further deteriorate. For this reason, and because demographic forces portend potential shortages of educationally qualified resident labor for the knowledge- intensive industries that are already expanding in the cities, there have been cogent calls from both the public and private sectors to

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192 Johns D. Kasarda upgrade city schools and increase the proportion of urban residents who receive some higher education. Policies geared to improving the education of urban residents are essential to longer term solutions of mismatch and the social and eco- nomic health of cities. Such policies, however, are unlikely to alleviate the persistent unemployment problems currently facing a large num- ber of displaced older workers and yet-to-be-placed younger workers with serious educational deficiencies those caught in the web of ur- ban change. Such unemployment persists because the educational qualifications demanded by most urban information-processing in- dustries are difficult to impart through short-term, nontraditional programs. Qualifications for employment in these industries typically accrue through prolonged formal schooling during which marketable benefits accumulate as one passes through certifying educational thresholds (e.g., high school, baccalaureate, M.B.A., law degrees). It seems overly optimistic to think that sizable numbers of those displaced because of their educational deficiencies (especially older persons) will desire or be capable of reentering prolonged schooling programs to obtain the appropriate qualifications. The unplausibility of rebuilding urban blue-collar job bases or of providing sufficient education to large numbers of displaced ur- ban laborers so they may be reemployed in expanding white-colIar industries necessitates a renewed Took at the traditional means by which Americans have adapted to economic displacement that is, migration. Despite the mass loss of lower skill jobs in many cities during the past decade, there have been substantial increases in these jobs nationwide. For example, between 1975-1985, more than 2.1 million nonadrn~nistrative jobs were added in eating and drinking establishments, which is more than the total number of production jobs that currently exist in America's automobile, primary metals, and textile industries combined (1.86 million in 1985) (Bureau of I,abor Statistics, 1975, 1986~. Unfortunately, essentially all of the national growth in entry-level and other jobs with low educational requisites has occurred in the suburbs, exurbs, and nonmetropolitan areas, all of which are far removed from growing concentrations of poorly educated minorities. It is both an irony and a tragedy that we have such huge surpluses of entry-level labor in the inner cities at the same time suburban businesses are facing serious entry-level labor shortages. The inability of disadvantaged urban minorities to follow de-

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JOBS, MIGRATION, AND EMERGING URBAN MISMATCHES 193 centralizing entry-level jobs (either because of racial discrirn~nation, inadequate knowledge or resources, or government-subsidized an- choring) has increasingly isolated these minorities from shifting loci of employment opportunity and has contributed to their high rates of unemployment, labor force nonparticipation, and welfare depen- dency. Such isolation, blocked mobility, and dependency breed hope- lessness, despair, and alienation that, in turn, foster drug abuse, fam- ily dissolution, and other social problems that disproportionately af- flict the urban disadvantaged. For many young men, confined as they are in commercially abandoned ghettos in which stable husband-wife families are few, pimps, pushers, and toughs replace working fathers as role models. The cultural isolation of these young men and their sociaTization-by-the-street prevent them from developing the positive work values and interpersonal skills that are as important as tech- nical skills in obtaining and holding a job. The result is a powerful spatial interaction of social and economic malaise. To sum up the working thesis of this paper, America's jobs and people have moved about continuously. Now it appears that at least one segment of our population has become increasingly immobilized in culturally and economically isolated inner-city areas of decline. Without jobs and without much hope for jobs, the "new immobiles" are caught in a downward socioeconomic spiral that is unprecedented for urban dwellers in this country. To improve the mobility options of the urban disadvantaged and reduce their spatial isolation from job opportunities that are better matched with their skills, a number of strategies should be con- sidered. These might include: (1) a computerized job opportunity network providing up-to-date information on available jobs through- out the particular metropolitan area, the region, and the nation; (2) partial underwriting of more distant job searches by the unemployed; (3) need-based temporary relocation assistance, once a job has been secured; (4) housing vouchers for those whose income levels require such assistance, as opposed to additional spatially fixed public hous- ing complexes; (5) stricter enforcement of existing fair-housing aIld ~ e ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ talr-nlrlng laws; hi) publlc-ptlvate cooperative efforts to van pool unemployed inner-city residents to suburban businesses facing labor shortages; and (7) a thorough review of all public assistance programs to ensure that they are not inadvertently anchoring those with lim- item] resources to distressed areas in which there are few prospects for permanent or meaningful employment.

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194 Johns D. Kasa~da The strategies enumerated above are not suggested as replace- ments for efforts to make cities more attractive to blue-collar indus- tries or imperative programs to improve the educational qualifica- tions of inner-city residents but rather as complements to them. All three general strategies (jobs-to-people, people-tojobs, and educa- tional upgrading) must be further complemented by national eco- nomic development policies that foster sustained private sector em- ployment growth. The economic health of cities is inexorably inter- woven with the health of the national economy. Moreover, programs assisting the retraining or relocation of the structurally unemployed will prove fruitless unless there are new and enduring jobs at the end of the training programs or moves. Thus, rather than subsidizing the relocation of industries to ur- ban areas of greater cost or Tower productivity (thus lowering the net national return on investment), cities should be encouraged to intro- duce economic development strategies aimed at creating productive, cost-competitive environments that would attract such industries. The prior appraisal of regional employment shifts suggests that there are a number of important competitive factors that city officials can influence such as local taxes and business regulations. They can also influence local policies regarding public schools, safety, and municipal service delivery, all of which might make the margin of difference for middIe-income families and businesses that are considering locating in (or leaving) the city. In other words, local officials are not helpless in determining the fate of their cities. They must think strategically about their own city's future, however, and candidly assess its competitive strengths and weaknesses in a changing national and international economic arena. They must implement policies that will be oriented more toward the future, building on their city's emerging strengths in this transforming arena. Let us take public infrastructure development policy as one brief example. Just as canals, railway terminals, paved streets, running water, and electric power lines once provided cities with comparative advantages for processing and transporting goods, successful cities of the future will develop computer-age infrastructures that will provide them with comparative advantages for processing and transmitting information. As a start, concerted efforts must be made to "wire" cities with fiber optics and broad-band cables so that businesses lo- cating in them can quickly and efficiently receive, process, store, and

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JOBS, MIGRATION, AND EMERGING URBAN MISMATCHES 195 transmit immense amount of data and information. Cities, like- wise, should take advantage of their economies of scale and provide municipally owned supercomputer facilities and teleports to service their growing information-processing industries on a cost-sharing ba- sis. They should also nurture national and international accessibility through their unrivaled airports (a unique comparative strength of major cities) by further improving these facilities and expanding airline connections for business people and tourists. To repeat, the destinies of cities are not entirely shaped by exter- nal forces beyond their control. All have enormous latent strengths that can be built upon in constructing brighter urban futures. Even those of our older industrial cities that have experienced the greatest population and job losses over the past two decades have a rich archi- tectural heritage, diverse ethnic character, and urban ambience that cannot be replicated in most newer Sunbelt cities. Recognizing and exploiting such strengths will require foresight and action on the part of local leaders. In the end, the economic and demographic future of cities will be determined less by national urban policies than by how effectively local leadership fosters new urban roles and meets the needs and aspirations of various population groups and firms. ACKNOWLEDGMENT Research reported herein was supported, in part, by a grant from the National Science Foundation. Tabular assistance was provided by Andrea M. Bohlig, Holly L. Hughes, and Michael D. Irwin. This paper wan originally titled "The Regional and Urban Redistribution of People and Jobs.n REFERENCES Bell, Daniel 1973 The Coming of Po~t-Indwtrial Society. New York: Basic Books. Bergman, Edward M., and Harvey A. Goldstein 1983 Dynamics and structural change in the structure of metropolitan economies. Journal of the American Planning Association 49~3~:263-279. Bluestone, Barry, and Bennett Harrison 1982 The Deindwtrialization of America. New York: Basic Books. Bureau of the Census 1953 County Business Patterns. Machine-Readable Files. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. County Business Patterns. Machine-Readable Files. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce.

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