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Local Area Economic Growth Patterns: A Comparison of the 1980s ant! Previous Decades DANIEL H. GARNICK Looking back from the vantage point of the 1980s, it is clear that the much publicized reversal of growth that occurred in the 1970s from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan areas was tempo- rary. In three earlier articles documenting the resumption of higher growth in metropolitan areas in the 1980s, the author showed that (1) the perceived growth reversal was not uniform among all regions, (2) there are underlying industrial and regional continuities, appar- ently of a structural nature, as well as cyclical or shorter term ele- ments, that may from time to time result in or exaggerate perceived shifts ant] reversals, (3) tests of hypotheses associated with polar- ization/polar reversal (counterurbanization) theory failed to support the theories of polar growth and reversal, and (4) the wage rate as the equilibrating mechanism in area growth only weakly supported neoclassical theory (Garnick, 1983, 1984, 1985~. The import of these results is that, although there appear to be many long-term indus- trial and regional structural elements at work underlying the shifting balances in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan area growth, no single or overarching theory appears to be able to describe adequately the The views expressed in this paper are not necessarily those of the U.S. Department of Commerce or of the Bureau of Economic Analysis where the author is associate director for regional economics. 199
200 Daniel H. Garruck dynamics of area growth and decline. Thus, no overarching policy or single instrument is likely to resolve the problems associated with the uneven development and differential growth patterns of regions and areas. This paper is developed in four sections. The first section briefly updates the review of metropolitan-nonmetropolitan area patterns in the 1980s thus far, contrasting them with the patterns in the 1960s and 1970s; the section focuses on the same metropolitan and nonmetropolitan designations and the same economic and popula- tion aggregates dealt with in the earlier articles. The second section follows the fortunes of the 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) over the same time spans, adding employment to the list of economic aggregates reviewed and placing particular emphasis on the relationship between employment change and population change. The third section disaggregates the geography further into four cat- egories of county groups within each of the MSA and non-MSA designations. Additional economic aggregates are introduced into the analysis of the patterns in these geographic configurations. The final section interweaves the findings from the first three sections with a longer term review of national production and employment patterns and with an outlook for policy. MSA/NON-MSA GROWTH PATTERNS Tables 1, 2, and 3 show the average annual rates of growth in total personal income, population, total earnings, and in earnings excluding farm and manufacturing. (Earnings are the sum of wages and salaries, other labor income, and proprietors' income.) Growth rates are shown for the United States and its regions by non-MSA and MSA areas, and by size class of the latter, for three time spans: 1959-1969, 196~1979, and 1979-1984. The choice of years for the first two tables is based on national business cycle peaks, with the aim of separating trend from cyclical changes. The last year is the most recent for which data are available. Thus far in the 1980s, MSA growth has continued to exceed non-MSA growth in total personal income, population, and earnings in the nation as a whole and in all but three highly urbanized re- gions: the New England, Mideast, and Great Lakes regions, in which population growth in non-MSAs continued to exceed that in MSAs.i iThe Bureau of Economic Analysis' regional classification differs somewhat from that of the Bureau of the Census (see Appendix A, p. 59~.
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209 u: e~ ~ oo a, ~ co 0O ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 00 00 ~ CD . . . · . . . . · . . . . O 00 ~ ~ ~ C~ ~ 00 CD ~ 0O 00 _ O 00 ~ CD CO ~ O c~ co e~ ~ co oo e~ . . . . . . O CD ~ ~ ~ e~ _. _' ~ o ~ o oo ~ U. oo c~ ~ ~ . . . . . . . o ~ o oo ~ e~ C5) e~ ~ 0 ~ oo e~ U. ~ ~o ~ CD . . . . · . . . . . . . . ~ co 0 oo ~ e~ ~ oo ~ ~ oo oo 0 e~ ~ <9 u: ~ ~ oo co e~ e~ ~ c~ oo e~ ~ CD ~ ~ CO C5) 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ co e~ o: e~ ~ ~ ~ co e~ e~ ~ c~ {D CO C~ U~ ~ U . . · . . . . oout oo~ oo~ oo 0 e~ U~ c~ ~ 0 ~ CD ~ 00 ~ ut e~ CD 03 ~ C~ U. ~ C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U. . . · . . . . . . . . . . oo {D ~ oO oO ~ oo ~ oo CD ~ ~ oo O 00 U. ~ ~ ~ CS) ~ ~ h~ ~ ~ CC oo co ~ U~ 0 ~ c') ~ ~ e~ co e~ e~ . . . · . . . . . . · . . oo cD ~ oo ~ o oo ~ oo ~ oo c~ oo oo ~ u: e9 CS) 00 e~ ~ ~ ~ oo cs ~ e~ · . . . . · - oo ~ oO {D ~ ~ oo ut o: C9 CO u~ ~ e~ oo oo oo c. ~ ~ co · . . . . · ~ ~ ~ ~ _ a, ~ ~ ~ u: ~ a, ~ CD e~ oo 0 ~ e~ U3 ~ oo ~ ut c. 0 ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ CD 00 ~ CD ~ O {D ~ u' ~ oo oO O ~ . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . . . . . . ~ ~ ~ 0 c~ e~ 0 ~ oo O ~ 0 ~ c~ ~ ~ oo ~ 0 ~ ~n m a, ~ q, a, ._ ._ ._ ~ O ~ ~ O ~ O ~ ~ a, . _ 0 ~ a: . _ ~ a~ . _ 0 ~ ~ E ~ E ~ A E ~ ~ = ~ ~ E 0~5: - s~ ~ o=~ - ~ o=~ - s oq => ~ O ~ ~ ° => ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ o ~ S! _ a~ ~ O m _ D~ ~ O ~ 3 `<s `0 a' ~ 5= O ~ `~, `~, ~v u, -~.a (V c<' c~s m u, 0 ~ 0 0 ~ ° - > `~o ~o ~ O ~ 3 ~O ~O~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O cn rB cS - ct ._ a~ ._ oo c. - o P~ ~o 11 u, . . E~ o
210 Daniel H. Garruck In addition, in the Great Lakes region, non-MSA growth rates of personal income and earnings exceeded MSA rates. This tendency is due to continued weakness in durable goods manufacturing industries (other than motor vehicle production), which tend to be heavily concentrated in the region's MSAs. This pattern contrasts with that of the 1970s, when non-MSA growth exceeded MSA growth in the three measures in the nation as a whole and in the four highly urbanized regions, also including the Far West. The pattern of the 1980s resembles that of the 1960s when MSA growth exceeded non-MSA growth in the three measures in the nation as a whole and in all but two regions. In the New England and Great Lakes regions, personal income growth (but not earnings) was higher in non-MSAs, owing to the somewhat relatively higher rates of property and retirement income growth in the non-MSA portions of these two regions. Industrial Bases of Area Growth The last four columns in Tables 1, 2, and 3 show growth rates in total earnings and in earnings when farm, manufacturing, and farm and manufacturing earnings are excluded from total earnings. A comparison of the growth rates in total earnings and in earnings that exclude a particular industry shows the combined effect of that industry's growth rate and its relative importance (weight) on the total. When farm earnings are excluded, the differential impact of the farm and the nonfarm industries on non-MSAs is readily shown. Likewise, when manufacturing earnings are excluded, the different effects of manufacturing industries on MSA and non-MSA growth patterns become evident. Other industries, for the most part, are consumer services industries, which respond to, rather than shape, area growth; or they are industries that tend to be concentrated geographically. Mining and some recreation- and retirement-related industries in non-MSAs and selected service industries in MSAs are examples of geographically concentrated industries. Using the earnings columns of the three tables, the following dis- cussion of non-MSA and MSA growth patterns since the 1960s focuses on how such patterns have been affected by farm employment decline, the geographic dispersion of industry, and the internationalization of the U.S. economy. In many respects, the internationalization of the national economy may be looked at as an extension of the geographic dispersion of industry.
LOCAL AREA ECONOMIC GROWTH PATTERNS Non-MSA Areas 211 In the 1960s, as had been the case since before World War IT when the agricultural revolution led to large increases in farm productivity growth, non-MSAs in all regions were characterized by continued de- cTines in farm employment and large-scale population out-migration. With continued improvements in their access to national markets, however, owing to the large increase in federal outlays for highway construction, non-MSAs began to benefit increasingly from man- ufacturing industries that were dispersing in search of lower cost locations and diversification insurance against strikes and other po- tential impedances to access to supplies and markets. Technological change also contributed significantly to the regional dispersion of industry and to the Reconcentration of firms from the urban core (Garnick, 1978~. In Table 1 these developments are seen in the earnings columns: farm earnings subtract almost one-half of a percentage point from the growth rate of total earnings in non-MSAs nationally, and man- ufacturing earnings add almost one-half of a percentage point. With the pool of redundant farm workers diminishing as the 1960s pro- gressed and employment in growing nonfarm industries increasing in these areas, the net population out-migration from non-MSAs slowed toward the end of the decade. By the 1970s non-MSAs were characterized by net ~n-migration of population, which reflected growing nonfarm job opportunities and slowing farm employment decline (a result, in part, of a worId- wide shortfall in grain production early in the decade and of rising farm prices). During this period, manufacturing earnings and em- ployment grew faster in non-MSAs than in MSAs. One explanation of this growth may be that the effect on international trade of the de- cTining value of the dollar mitigated the effects of increased imports, which threatened the labor-intensive manufacturing jobs that had been increasing in non-MSAs. Other nonfarm, nonmanufacturing industries grew even faster, however, spurred, in part, by increased population rn~gration to recreation and retirement communities and by boom conditions in fuel and other natural resource industries. These industrial developments induced growth in the construction and consumer services industries in non-MSAs at rates exceeding those of MSAs. (In the less urbanized regions of the Southeast, Southwest, Plains, and Rocky Mountains, however, MSAs contin- ued to grow faster than non-MSAs. The economic linkages between the non-MSAs and MSAs in these regions reinforced the continuing
212 Daniel H. Garruck trend of growth that was faster than the national average in the MSAs there.) In the 1980s all the major factors that had contributed to the growth of non-MSAs had reversed. Although farm income in 1984 rose from its very low levels in 1983, the decline in farm population reaccelerated. This decline reflected the longer term farm financial crisis associated with world agricultural surplus stocks and the disin- flation of the 1980s. Mining and related industrial activities similarly stumped. Although the oil industry had not yet been hit by the 1985- 1986 sharp decline in prices, prices began sliding downward following the second sharp rise in petroleum prices in 1980-1981. In addition, the number of labor-intensive manufacturing jobs declined faster in the face of increased competition from foreign producers, who gained an advantage from the sharp strengthening of the trade-weighted value of the dollar in the first half of the decade. MSA Areas Although a number of cities, especially in the Mideast region, experienced declines in population in the 1960s, their suburbs gen- erally continued to grow, more than offsetting city-core decline; the exception was the Pittsburgh MSA, which experienced a small over- all population decline. By the 1970s, however, suburban growth in the more urbanized regions of New England, the Mideast, and the Great Lakes was insufficient to offset an acceleration in the decline of cities in the long-established industrial areas. (A falloff in civil- in.n and military aircraft production contributed to the slowdown in MSA growth in the Far West region.) An industrial shakeout was in progress. Beginning in New Eng- land with the southern migration of the textiles industry, the shift continued through the 1950s and 1960s. But even as the employment decline and the associated out-migration of the redundant work force were hitting very hard, the region was incubating new technology and producer-services industries that would subsequently govern its growth. Although its employment growth fell behind the national rate in the 1970s also, it did so to a significantly lesser extent than was the case with the other regions in the old manufacturing belt. The southern migration of textiles and other industries manu- facturing nondurable goods also affected the Mideast region in the 1950s. To this was added the decline of the region's steed and other durable goods manufacturing industries in the 1960s and 1970s, the
LOCAL AREA ECONOMIC GRO WTH PATTERNS 213 period of the heaviest industrial shakeout in the Mideast region. The Great Lakes region and, to a lesser extent, the Plains region were the last of the regions in the old manufacturing belt to experience industrial shakeout. Except for steel in the Ohio River Valley, which borders on the western reaches of the Mideast region, the Great Lakes region was able to preserve some of its durable goods manufacturing advantage up through the early 1970s. Manufacturing employment in the nation grew fitfully in the 1970s. The faster growing regions in the South and West benefited most from the industrial dispersion in which non-MSAs in those regions participated along with MSAs. Manufacturing employment overall fell during the 1979-1984 time span at an average annual rate of 1.58 percent. The old smokestack industries in the Great Lakes region's MSAs were es- pecially hard hit. Nationally, primary metals manufacturing em- ployment fell at an annual average rate of 3.0 percent, motor vehicles fell at a rate of 3.1 percent, rubber at 5.2 percent, and nonelectrical machinery at 2.5 percent. In all, 1 million manufacturing jobs were lost in the Great Lakes region, more than half the total national loss of 1.75 million manufacturing jobs. Whereas the nation was able to generate 10 million jobs in nonmanufacturing for a net gain of 8 mil- lion jobs, the Great I`akes region was only able to offset 60 percent of its loss of manufacturing jobs with new nonmanufacturing jobs. The Great Lakes was the only region to experience a net job Toss. Most of it occurred in the MSAs, which also experienced a net decrease in population. Elsewhere, with the exception of those medium-sized MSAs in the Mideast with industrial compositions similar to those of MSAs in the Great Lakes region, MS As experi- enced employment and population growth more favorable than that of non-MSAs (Table 4~. In New England the employment situation was much improved, rising from 6.3 million in 1979 to over 7 million in 1984, a 2.06 percent annual average increase in the number of jobs, compared with 1.38 percent for the nation. Even the number of manufacturing jobs remained relatively stable over the period. Technology and defense jobs held manufacturing employment steady in the face of continued declines in textiles, apparel, and shoes, all industries that had once been very important to the fortunes of New England. In the 1980s the Mideast experienced an increase of 1 million jobs over its total in 1979, a 1.08 percent average annual increase. This growth was a substantial improvement over the 1970s when the
214 Daniel H. Garruck TABLE 4 Average Annual Growth Rates (percentage) of Employment by Region, 1969-1984 Period Regions 1969-1979 1979-1984 Total United States 2.16 1.38 New England 1.62 2.06 Mideast 0.68 1.08 Great Lakes 1.36 -0.38 Plains 2.10 0.61 Southeast 2.70 1.86 Southwest 3.71 3.04 Rocky Mountain 4.44 2.16 Far West 3.36 1.97 Mideast's average growth rate was 0.68 percent, compared with a 2.16 percent average annual growth rate for the nation. Still, the number of manufacturing jobs in the region continued to fall from over 4 million in 1979 to slightly more than 3.5 million in 1984. Thus, the shakeout in manufacturing jobs continued, particularly in those MSAs in which the earlier established industries were concentrated. The growth of technology and service jobs in the region more than offset the losses, however. In the South and West, there was much less in the way of earlier established manufacturing industries. In the Southeast, where textile manufactures continued to be important and where the loss in jobs by 1984 had left the industry 15 percent below its employment level in 1979, the increase in jobs in printing and publishing, machinery, and motor vehicles almost offset other manufacturing job losses. Overall, the Southeast experienced a 1.86 percent average annual employment growth rate, with MSA growth outstripping that in non-MSAs severalfold. Manufacturing jobs also remained at about the same or higher levels in the Southwest, Rocky Mountain, and Far West regions. Total employment in the three regions from 1979-1984 increased at average annual rates of 3.04, 2.16, and 1.97 percent, respectively. Whereas employment growth was widely distributed in those fast- growing regions, the MSA rate tended to be more than double that of the non-MSAs. The growth story of the 1980s thus far has continued to be centered in services. Many of the differences in earnings growth
LOCAL AREA ECONOMIC GROWTH PATTERNS 215 rates among areas can be seen when looking at total earnings versus earnings that exclude the farming and manufacturing industries in Tables 1, 2, and 3. Invariably, in all regions and all areas for MSAs and non-MSAs alike, the growth rates were considerably larger in the latter category, mainly owing to the large increase in the number of service jobs. Wholesale and retail trade added almost 2.5 million jobs during the period. The finance, insurance, and real estate group added more than a million jobs --and the service industries more than 5 million to the national total between 197~1984. But it was producer services those high-earnings business, financial, and professional services that tend to concentrate in major metropolitan areas that thus far have accounted for much of the shift in favor of MSAs in the 1980s. MAJOR M1:TROPO[ITAN AREA PATTERNS In this section the growth patterns of the 50 largest primary MSAs are reviewed. The MSAs are ranked by the size of their populations in 1984, the most recent year for which all the data are available for this study. Tables 5, 6, and 7 show the average annual growth rates for the same variables that appeared in Tables 1, 2, and 3, with the addition of employment in Tables 6 and 7. (In the late 1960s, the Bureau of Economic Analysis [BEA] began preparing area employment estimates on a comparable basis with their area earnings estimates.) In the 1960s the 50 major MSAs had an average annual popula- tion growth rate of 1.66 percent, compared with 1.29 percent for the nation as a whole; only Pittsburgh showed a small population decline. Other MSAs in the slower growing northern and central regions grew at rates below the group average, with the exception of Washington, D.C.; Nassau-Suffolk; Hartford; and Rochester. These MSAs bene- fited by rapidly growing industries and sectors government, aircraft and engineering, insurance, and photographic products and business machines, respectively. In the 1970s the average annual population growth rate in the 50 major MSAs fell well below that for the nation: 0.76 percent compared with 1.1 percent. Of these MSAs, 11 experienced declining population totals all were in the old manufacturing belt. Only one, New York, had an employment decline, more than half of which was accounted for by manufacturing job losses. During the most recent time span, the average annual population
216 - o ._ Cat o - o C) I o m o En o _` Cat m _t a' 1 - _I ~ 2 _ ~ a, m ~ O bO U: C {D o ut m bO m ~ ~a bO _ eJ ~ ~ =~ X ~= ~4 ._ b4 X ._ X C~ o o ._ C. _ C~ ~ O O P~ O m o (D ~ ~ ~ C9 e~ ~ ~ 0 co e~ co ~ a~ co ~ ~ CO ~ e~ CO ~ ~ ~ U: ~ ~ ~ CO ~ ~ CO C~ ~ U3 0 oo ~ ~4 C~ 0O 0O · . . . . · . . . . . . . · . . . . . . . · . CO CO ~ ~ 00 00 ~ CD ~ 00 ~ 00 CD ~ 00 ~ ~ C9 00 co ~ U~ ~ 0 e~ c~ C5) ~ ~ ~ ~ oo 0 oo oo ~ c~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o: oo ~ o, co ~ c`4 ~ o: C5) ~ u, ~ e~ . · · . . . . . . . . · . . . . . · . . . . . eo ~ eo ~ co {D ~ ~ oo 00 ~ t9 ~ 00 ~ 00 u' ~ oo ~ ~ CO e~ e~ oo 0 co ~ u, u, ~ oO oo ~ ~ ~ cr, ~ c~ ~ ~ e~ oo · · · · · . . . . . . CO CD u~ (D ~ u~ ~ CD 00 00 C9 e~ co 0 oo ut ~ O C~ CO e~ ~ c~ e~ 0 co oo ~ ~ ~ oo e~ u, ~ ~ oo 0 ~ co oo ~ co . . . . . . . . · . . · . . · . . C9 CD U: c~ u: ~ ~ ~ 00 00 C`} C9 ~ ~ ~ 00 <9 ~ ~ - l c~ ~ o; (D O . · · . . r4 ~ o - ~ ~ ' U3 ~ 0 ~ oo e~ e~ CO C5) 0 ~ oo 0 ~ oo ~ u . . . . . . . . · . . O oO (D ~ {D oo o' ~ u, ~ e~ O ~ oo ~ e~ . . . . . oo ~ {D CD 00 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ a~ e~ cs 0 ~ ~ ~ <9 ~ U3 c~ e~ cs~ ~ ~ u: ~ ~ ~ O c~ O ~ oO O . . · . . · . . . . . · . . . . . ~ 0 e~ co e~ ~ oo ~ ~ o: 0 ~ c~ ~ c~ 0 co CO ~ O ~ ~ ~ CO 00 CD O ~ (D ~ ~ oo e~ co ~ u~ o~ c~ o~ 0 ~ ~ ~ oo 0 ~ 0 u: u~ o: ~ ~ 0 e~ co ~ co oo ~ ~ Ut ~ c9 . . . · · . . . . · · . · . . · . . . . . . . ~ CD ~ CD CD ~ ~ CD 00 ~ ~ {D ~ ~ ~ ~ U: ~ oo CD ~ CD 00 _ bO ~5 V ~ ~ ~m CQ ~ ~ ~= C6' ~ D ~ ~ ~ ==, ·o ~ ~ ° ~ ~ ~ .S ~ ~ =. ~ ~ 3 ~ ~ E ~ ~E~ :z~v~m3~:z~n~m>~<c~ z;ov~
217 co ~ on ~ ~ ~ Go U. of 0 0 ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ us 0 en ~ u, u, O O en Go ~ co ~ co 00 ~ co ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U: ~4 en Cal ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ on ~ ~ ~ ~ 0~ ~ O ~ CD 00 . · . . . . . . · · · . . · · · . . . . . . · · . . · . . 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CO ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ 00 CD ~ <9 ~ ~ ~ CD up on en en ~ up ~ CO ~ Go en ~ ~ C5) ~ ~ ~ CO CD 00 0 CD ~ {D Go ~ O O CD ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O O ~ ~ ~ <9 ~ 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CD O ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 . . . . . . · · . . . · . . . . . · · . . . . . . · . . . 00 C5) ~ ~ ~ C9 CD CD ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ 00 CO ~ CO CD ~ ~ CD Go o CO · . . · ~ ~ ~ To ~ on ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ up ~ up ~ CD ~ ~ ~ ~ O en ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ co u: u, u, so ~ up ~ a, up ~ up Cat CD CO up 00 ~ Cal) Ut Up O ~ CO {D to ~ {D ~ 00 ~ ~ 00 {D ~ us ~ to ~ A) ~ ~ ~ us Cal ~ 0 ~ ~ en CD C9 -4 CO 03 CD O Us ~ O C9 ~ 00 0 CO AL on 0 O us ~ ~ ~4 C5) C9 00 lo) ~ ~ CD up 10 en oo (3) co on Ed ~ ~ ~ _I co en ~ up . . · . . . . . · · · · · . . . . · · . . . . . . . . . . CD CD ~ ~ O ~ CD CO ~ CD eo ~ Go ~ ~ ~ Go (D ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CO so ~ us ~ ~ ~ en Go or ~ ~ en Go 0 co Go Go co Cal ~ co ~ ~ CD ~ {D CD ~~ ~ Cal A: CD en co Go 0 0 ~ ~ CD ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . . · . . . . . · . . . . . . . . · · . . . . . . . . . . Al co Cal ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ en ~ ~ en ~ CD ~ ~ en ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ so us CD en ~ 0 ~ 0 CD U O ~ ~ Cal en co CD O O ~ ~ ~ AS ~ Up ~ US en us (D ~ en Go ~ on CD 00 C9 CO ~ O ~ CD 00 U. ~ ~ ~ CO CO ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 . . . · . . . · . · · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ CD CD Ub Ut O CO ~ CD ~ CD C9 ~ 00 ~ en ~ Go (D ~ ~ C9 ~ ~ C9 · - It be ~ ~ m ~ _ .~ a ~ x ~ ,, , ~ ,, `: 5 ° ~ ~ to y ~ ~ ~ 3 ~ ~ ~ m ~ 3 ~ O ~~~ ~ O c: ~ ~ C ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ > ~ ~ ~ 55: ~ A ~ {~~ es ._ · ~e ~ ~ 0 0 ~ _ ~ O O O C: ~ C O :5 0 As: O In ~2cn~on~V2~mV Zm~`n~=Vcn~m~02~ - c: c' ·_ of ·_ al cat - o a 11 ¢ an . . o
218 , :^ o - C. oo b. ._ s" C~ - o ._ ct - o o v - r~ o s" r~ o o ~_ bO s" a, - oo 3 ~ o I _ C: ~ ~ ^ ~ 0 ¢ ~ bO ~ s" b,O ¢ ,~ CS) o ~C m~ ¢ ~ [, t-0, :^ o 00 ._ S" b4 ._ S" ~0 ~ V · ~<S ~5 V X .= V p4 X ~ o bO S" bO ~ ~ V X .= 3~ C~ o o . o o o ~ V P4 ¢ CQ e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ 0 ~ ~ co 0 U. 0 ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ C9 c9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ a, ~ ~ co ~ co e~ ~ ~ ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . · . . . c~ ~ 0 c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ o: ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O4 ~ u, 1 <9 cs ~ oo cs ~ oO ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ e~ ~ ~ cs ~ 0 ~ ~ oo ~4 cn O ~ co C~ ~ CO ~ oo ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ co ~ ~ . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . · . . . . . . c~ ~ ~ c~ 0 0 0 ~ e~ U~ c~ ~ o: ~ c~ a~ 0 co ~ 0 c~ C9 ~ ~ C9 00 ~ ~ ~ 00 ~ ~ U~ ~ <9 CD (D co ~ CO ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ CD C~ ~ 03 ~ ~ C~ e4 ~ ~ oo {D ~ ~ C~ ~ CO ~ 00 . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . . . . . . I N O O O _I O~ 1O C~ _I CO ~ 4 CC O CD ~ O O~ O 1 u: ~ c~ ~ co ~ 0o ~ CO O O ~ ~ O 00 ~ oo a~ ~ co ut oO o: c~ ~ u: ~ ~ ~ e~ 0 ~ ^, oo ~ 0 ~ co e~ ~ oo c~ u' ~ . . . . . . . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CD ~ 00 ~ 00 00 ~ U, ~ 00 ~ C~ O e~ oo ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ _~ _~ ~ _I 0 co cs ~ ~ oo C~ ~ c~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ oo ~ a, 0 0 co oo co co oo ~ c4 0 ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a, a' ~ 0 e~ ~ oo U3 oo ~ ~ oo oo ~ ~ oo oo 0 oo ~ ~ co a~ 0 ~ ~ ~ e~ u3 CS) CD CO ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ co oo ~ e~ ~ 0 o: ~ co e~ ~ oo e~ <9 CO 00 CO CD 00 ~ O4 0 ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ co oo co ~ e~ . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . . . . . . . · . oo u: oo ~ ~ oo oo ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 oO ~ ~ oo co 0 ~ oo ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _1 0 es co ~ e~ 0 ~ eo d~ ~ ~ 0O ~ ~ ~ CO e~ oo ~ ~ ~ 0 oo U: 0 ~ 0 0 Oo U, 0O 0 co ~ ~ co ~ e~ ~ ~ oo ~ oo 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0O 0 0 e~ 0 0 e~ 0 co co 0 0 0 co 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 eo oo co CD u, C9 ~ CO e~ 0 ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ co co ~ 0 ~ ~ U, CD 0 co ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a, c4 ~ ~ r~ ~ co oo ut CD a: 0 ~ 0 ~ c~ . . . . . . . . . . . · · · · . . . . . . 0 ~ co oo oO oo 00 00 0 ~ oo 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ co e~ ~ 0 ~ CO bO a, . ~ ~ u] oo ~ ~ v ~ ~ . . u, a ~ ~n p ~ ~ :~ bO~ .~o ~ ~ O ~ ,_; ~ ~E ~ ~ == ~ ~ 3 ~4 ~ E :z~v~=z~n¢m>~:~q~ov~ ,s v, O
219 00 ~ ~ ~ Cal ~ CO dot US 00 <9 ~ ~ O CO 03 ~ C9 ~ Cal ~ ~ ~ en 0 ~ up oo C~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo CO o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ C~ ~ ~ U' U: ~ C~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . . . . co o: co u: ~ e~ c~ ~ ~ c~ c~ co ~ ~ c~ c4 ~ o: ~ c~ o: ~ ~ ~ c~ co e~ _ u: ~ ~ CO ~ ~ CO ~ O CD U' CO ~ CO O ~ ~ ~ CC ~ 00 ~ C~ ~ 00 ~ O O C~ o ~ ~ o ~ C9 o U~ oo ~ ~ CO ~ C~ CO oo C~ CO CO ~ ~ ~ ~ _l C~ U~ ~ ~ ~ {D ~ ~ ~ ~ C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C~ C~ ~ ~ C~ CO 0: CO ~ e~ ~ ~ 0 ~ o: e~ 0 Ch CD c~ ~ {D ~ CD ~ ~ 0O ~ O ~ co ~ ~ <9 ~ CO ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ co ~ 0 0 C4 ~ O ~ (D C53 U: ~ 03 u~ C9 ~ ~ C~ ~ O4 C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 03 ~ C~ ~ ~ 03 ~ . . . . · . . . . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ e~ ~ ~ c~ co a: ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ 0 ~ a~ ~ 0 00 00 ~ O U, ~ ~ CO ~ CS) U, ~ ~ C9 ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 CO O 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Ut ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ oo oo ~ u~ CD e~ ~ c~ c~4 0 oo C5) ~ ~ ~ a) co oo ~ o~ c~ ~ o: . . . · . . . . . . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O ~ 0 ~ e~ oo ~ oo oo ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 oo ~ 0 ~ CD CD ~ ~ 0 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _1 ~ ~ ~ _1 ~ 0 e~ 0 e~ 0 co co ~ ~ ~ CD 0O CO ~ ~ ~ C~ O Ut ~ ~ C9 <9 ~ ~ ~ CD CO (D u: CD ~ ~ C9 ~ ~ CO CO C~ ~ CO 0~ a~ ~ ~ 0 CD O ~ C~ ~ 00 U~ ~ 00 ~ ~ O . . . . · · . . . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O co 0 0 ~ co ~ oo oo e~ 0 oo ~ ~ 0 oo 0 0 ~ co oo ~ ~ ~ {D 00 ~ O ~ - - ~ - - ~ - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ co co CD ~ ~ ~ U~ e~ co ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ c~ c~ ~ O ~ ~ a~ ~ ~ u~ ~ U3 co ~ ~ ~ co ~ c9 e~ co ~ co c4 ~ ~ 0 CD O U, ~ 0 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O a, 0 0 c~ oo cs, oo oo e~ 0 oo ~ ~ 0 oo 0 0 ~ c~ oo O ~ ~ CD 00 ~ O e~ ~ 0 ~ co c~ oo ~ 0 ~ ~ 0 ~ u: e~ c4 ~ ~ ~ ~ CD O ~ ~ O O 00 e~ co ~ ~ ~ O CO 0. U: ~ O O C~ ~ O. O CO CD ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ u: c9 e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ e~ ~ c~ ~ e~ 0 0 0 0 e~ .64 0 ~ ~ c~ 0 ~ e~ ~ u3 0 ~ c~ 0 0 0 ~ 0 0 CO 00 ~ 00 CD 00 0 CO ~ 00 CO O ~ ~ O C~ ~ O ~ ~ 00 ~ O ~ ~ U, ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ oo oo c~ ~ ~ c~ co c~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ u: cO oo ~ cs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . co co 0 0 c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ u~ 00 0 e~ 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ _1 ~ ~ ~ ~ _ c) o · al :^ . ~ . ~ ~0 o t: _ . a, O o ~ ~ ° ~ ~ O - C o C o o ~ U o ° ~ ' ° ~ ~ S ~ B ' ~ O ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ a S ^~ ¢. ~ ~ ~, 3 ~ O3 ~ E ° m v ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ v ~ ~ m s" - ._ OO ._ c~ co ._ - o s°- 11 . . o
220 C: - oo bO ._ s" C: - o ._ o P~ - o v - o oo s" - o o _% ~4 C¢ V ~, C5) CS 0 U) 3 ~ o ~ L' oq a, ~4 _ ~ C~ C _. o a, ~ ~: b4 . ¢ ~ a, ,-; o - m ~ bO ._ ~ V ~ 4- x E S .c ~X E;. D] ~o ._ C~ ._ b4 ~ V ·_ C _ ~ Y r~ _~ ~ 2 ._ CO V ~ o CO X ~ oo on o o ._ C~ o o o ~ o ~4 ¢ U] 2 ~ ~ 0 0 ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ c~ oo ~ ~ c~ ~ oo e~ 0 ~ 0 0 ~ 0 o ~ ~ o ~ o o oo U: oo ~ ~ C9 ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ C~ oo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . e~ ~ C~ 0 c~ C~ a~ c~ ~ ~ ~ C~ u: O ~ e4 ~ co 0 u 1 oo u: 0 ~ ~ oo ~ ~ C~ ~ 0 C~ ~ u: oo c~ 4 co e~ ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ 0 0 ~ cs~ <9 ~ c~ 0 ~ ~ ~ oo oo ~ ~ 0 co . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . e~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ u: ~ co e~ ~ e~ ~ u' 1 1 1 1 oo o: 0 ~ c~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ oo oo ~ ~ ~ oo oo Ch ~ ~ 0 o, e~ og ~ e~ co 0 0 ~ co <9 oo ~ ~ c~ 0 ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 U3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · · . . . e~ 0 ~ ~ ~ u: ~ o~ c~ ~ e~ ~ ut 1 1 1 1 oo 0 ~ e~ co ~ u~ ~ ~ 0 Ut _ ~ oo oo ~ oo c~ a u: ~ e~ u~ CD 00 ~ oo 0 e~ e~ c~ CO ~ oo c~ ~ c~ CD ~ u3 C9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . . . 00 C5) 0 00 ~ 00 ~ O O ~ ~ 00 C~ 00 00 ~ CO ~ C5) 0 Ct CD e~ _1 _1 ~ _' _I ~ _' ~ _ e~ oo oo u~ ~ 0 u~ u~ co ~ ~ ~ oo u~ u~ u3 <9 ~ co e~ e~ ~ ~ oo e~ ~ 0 ~ 0 oo oo co ~ O O ~ ~ oO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . oO co ~ co 0 0 ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ oo co ~ ~ 0 ~ oo ~ ~ ~ c~ oo {g ~ ~ ~ ~ u~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ co e~ e~ ut oo c~ ut 00 C9 ~ C~ C~ ~ ~ 00 ~ ~ O CD O 00 00 CS) ~ O O C~ CD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ oo ~ oo co ~ co O O ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ 0 C53 oo ~ e~ 0 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ c~ ~ 0 ~ ~ {D ~ ~ ~ U: e~ e~ ~ ~ ~ co ~ ~ u' CO ~ 0 u, oo ~ -4 ~ ~ oo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O ~ 0 0 0 0 ~ ~ 0 0 e~ 0 ~ o: 0 ~ c~ 0 ~ 0 c~ 1 1 1 1 0 co 0 e~ o: c~ ~ ~ e~ co ~ CD O e~ 0 ~ co ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ oo CO ~ CO 00 ~ C9 CS) ~ ~ C~ C9 C53 ~ CO 00 C5) ~ oo ut 0 0 0 0 oo c~ ~ c~ e~ co 0 0 ~ 0 cs co _1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _I ~ bO - ~ c. ~ v ~ ¢ $-. v] ~ ~ u] ,' : ,., w,' o ~ .c , ~ ~ S ~ ~ ° ~ E 3 =: > E v ¢- ~ m ~ ~ ~ cQ ~ m ~ ~ ~ ~ CQ ~ o v ~
221 C9 ~ (D O C~ ut ~ Ch ~ ~ ~ C9 u: d. CD ~ O o' ~ U' CO CO ~ ~ C9 ~ ~ ~ o ~ o ~ oo oo Ch ~ ~ ~ C9 O) C9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ e~ ~ e~ o~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ c~ 0 0 oo ~ 0 C9 ~ _I 00 ~ ~ 00 ~ CO ~ CD 00 _ O ~ Ut e4 O4 0 ~ ~ Ch e~ c~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ a, ~ oo C~4 ~ _ ~ ~ ~ c~ <9 oo ~ ~ c~ ~ C~ co CS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . . 0; ~ c~ ~ co ~ 0 0 0 ~ _ ~ ~ c~ co 0 co co 0 ~ ~ e~ e~ _ 0 0 co 0 0 1 1 1 1 O 00 (D ~ o: ~ co ~ O ~ 00 CD ~ C~ CO ~ ~ C~ O ~ ~ 00 Ut e~ a: ~ oo _ co 0 ~ oo oo ~ co oo O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CD . . . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . · e~ ~ e~ _ co _ 0 0 0 ~ ~ _ ~ e~ a, 0 co co 0 ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ 0 0 ~ 0 0 1 1 1 1 ~ ~ C9 ~ ~ 03 CD CO CO C9 00 ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ ut e~ 0 oo ~ ~ ~ 0 u~ co 0 co e~ 0 ~ 0 co o~ ~ c~ o~ CD ~ ~ ~ 00 ~ ~ C9 ~ 00 ~ e~ C~4 u~ 0 e4 CD u~ Ut ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ oo 0 oo 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ u: e~ ~ 0 oo ~ ~ ~ 0 co co r4 C9 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CO CD U~ ~ O ~ U~ O ~ 0 00 ~ U~ _ co ~ ~ ~ 0 e~ ~ u: ~ oO O ~ ~ _ CD ~ O ~ ~ u: ~ O ~ {D C~ C9 ~ u . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00 ~ ~ CD O ~ ~ CD ~ a, ~ ~ ~ 0 oo co ~ ~ u: _ ~ O ~ ~ ~ C9 0 _I _ ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o~ ~ oo 0 ~ ~ oo e~ h: O ~ ~ 00 Ut ~ 00 <9 ~ O eo CO ~ ~ CO 00 ~ ~ C9 00 u: ~ ~ ~ ~ O O ~ u: ~ oo 0 ~ ~ oo u: ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ _1 O) oo ~ c~ ~ CD 00 _i a) CO O a) t- CO ~ 0O ~ a) t- O ~ CD ~ _ u~ _1 C53 0 00 ~ ~ CD O ~ 1~3 ~ ~ - 4 _ _ _1 _I _ _' oo _ C5) u~ ~ (g oo e~ ~ co oo 0 e~ u: ~ ut ~ oo ~ ~ e~ oo ~ ~ CS) CO ~ C9 _ 0 14 C~ O ~ ~ ~ Ut 0O ~ ~ O CO CD O C`4 ~ O ~ CO C~ . . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . . . 0: a~ ~ ~ ~ 0 0 0 0 _ ~ 0 0 ~ ~ 0 e~ ~ 0 e~ 0 ~ ~ 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oO O ~ ~ O U~ CO ~ ~ U~ ~ O ~ ~ CO U~ Ut oo co _ a) ~ co 0 co oo _4 e~ 0 oo o) ~ ~ oo a) _ ~ co ~ O _I a) C5) 0 u: e~ · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . . C~ ~ 00 _ O 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ _ CO ~ ~ O O O C53 CO ~ _ 00 ~ _ ~ _ _ _l ~ _. _ _ CQ ._ ~e 1 X~ ~ 1 s" a, C. C) ~ O ~ m C V C~ ~ a~ ~ P~ ~ ~ o b~ _ . ~ ¢ ~ ~ O 0O 0 1 () .~ ~ _ ~ c: ~ .~ ~ S ~ > ~ ~ .,, ~ ~ ° ~ S o ·: 6 ~ _ ~ - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ·~5 _ >:n~mv== ~=v~m~o> - C~ C) ._ 00 ._ a~ ._ - o S" 11 CO y . . o
222 Daniel H. Garruck growth rate in the 50 major MSAs (1.0 percent) approximated that of the nation as a whole (1.1 percent). Eight of these MS As showed declining population, and of the eight, all but Newark and Bergen- Passaic had declining employment rates as well. In all of these MSAs except Detroit, the Toss of manufacturing jobs more than accounted for the total job Toss. The industrial compositions of each of these MSAs were heavily weighted toward smokestack industries suffering declining employment. Four of the major MS As with declining populations in the 1970s shifted to a position of increasing population in the first half of the 1980s; these MSAs included New York, Philadelphia, and Boston in the Northeast, and St. Louis in the Plains region. New York has also shifted to increasing employment. The Boston MSA has experienced rapid employment growth during the most recent period (1979-1984) and is said to be experiencing a labor shortage. The short-term relationship between employment change and population change is loose, for two main reasons: (1) population change is in part dependent on births and deaths, which vary with the population age profiles of the area rather than with employment change, and (2) increasing employment may also reflect extended journeys to work from neighboring areas or the increased employment of otherwise unemployed residents, rather than population growth due to increased in-migration of transferred employees or other new residents. Population growth in an area may be constrained by the avail- ability and relative cost of housing over the short term. Over the longer term, job growth may be constrained by these very same hous- ing factors, as well as by other social and economic externalities, such as traffic congestion and crime. That is, in the absence of affordable housing and infrastructure, employment costs may rise prohibitively, to the subsequent competitive disadvantage of the area with respect to plant location and expansion. FURTHER AREA DISAGGREGATION It has been argued that MSA designations may not adequately reflect the dynamics of the urban growth process because of possi- ble distortions that may otherwise result from discontinuities in the process of redefining MSAs, both over time and geographically. Re- definitions of MSAs do not occur with regular periodicity; in large
LOCAL AREA ECONOMIC GROWTH PATTERNS 223 part the timing of changes is based on the timing of data collec- tion, the most important being the decennial population censuses. Moreover, MSAs are aggregations of counties, and, when the redefi- nitions occur, entire counties are being added or deleted. Thus, MSA redefinition reflects more than the incremental suburban expansion around city core areas; it also includes preexisting populations at some distance from the urban expansion. (To preclude the latter discontinuity, BEA retrospectively reclassifies an MSA according to the most current definition of its boundaries.) In this section the geographic configuration is broken down into four classes of MSA counties and four classes of non-MSA counties. County boundaries have been retrospectively reclassified, and the counties are sorted by population size and by geographic adjacency to core MSA counties (a core county is one with a population of 1 ganglion or more, including residents and nonresidents who daily commute to work there). Non-MSA counties are sorted by adjacency to MSAs. Each of these county classes is then reviewed: first in Tables 8, 9, and 10, for its growth characteristics with respect to the aggregates reviewed earlier, and then in Tables 11-14, for a profile of the sources of total personal income over each of the years bracketing the time spans. Summary Growth Patterns Tables 8, 9, and 10 are similar to Tables 1, 2, and 3, except for the inclusion of employment variables in the 1969-1979 and 19701984 time spans and for the row stub that breaks down MSAs and non- MSAs into four county groupings each, by size and geographic prox- imity characteristics. With the change in geographic configuration, more information is available on the county categories composing MSA and non-MSA areas. It may be noted that for any county category, earnings and employment growth rates in any time span are not well correlated with population growth rates. It was mentioned in the preceding section that the short-term relationship between employment change and population change was loose with respect to individual MSA configurations. Broken down by individual county classes, the rela- tionship is even looser if not altogether nonexistent. This is because, in addition to the two reasons cited for the loose relationship that may obtain with respect to individual MSAs, county portions of MSAs, even more than MSAs as a whole, reflect different places of
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228 o oo bO .c c: m ¢ ~0 ._ S~ b4 V ._ `e _ X ~ bO .= V ~ X o ~a i- bO ~ ~ V ·- {3S X ~ > bO ._ 3~ o o . C. o o o C) c01 C. o . bO ~ ~ o ~ V ~ oo ~ C~ ~ CO ~ C~ ~ oo C~ ~ ~ (g ~ o ~ o o oo ~ oo ~ U: CO o U: O O O ~ ~ oO C~ CO ~ C~ u: CO ~ 00 CO O 03 C~ O ~ (D ~ 00 C~ ~ ~ 0~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . c~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ e~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ o; co ~ co c~ c~ ~ e~ co ~ ~ oo e~ ~ 0 u: oo co ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo oo co ~ u~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ C~ CO C~ U~ ~ ~ CO ~ oo ~ o ~ C9 ~ ~ C~ ~ C4 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ e~ ~ o; ~ e~ ~ c~ ~ co e~ co ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ 0 0 ~ u: u: C9 ~ c~ 0 co co ~ c~ co oo oo e~ co co ~ u: oo ~ 0 c~ ~ ~ 0 co ~ ~ co ~ u: ~ ~ C5) e~ ~ u: cq C`4 ~ u: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . . . _~ O C~ _~ _~ _t C~ _t _~ N ~ Cr; C~ C~ O~ I ~ ~ ~ C~: C53 ~ ~ CO ~ (D (D ~ ~ ~ U, ~ ~ e~ ~ c9 e~ oo ~ oo CS) CD ~ 00 ~ e~ ~ oo oo 0 0 ~ ~ oo c~ a~ ~ co co ~ ~ CD ~ 00 00 ~ ~ CO 00 ~ CO 00 e~ 0 . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . · . · · . . . . . . . . 00 ~ ~ ~ C5) 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 ~ O O ~ ~ 00 00 0 0 e~ O O O O ~ O co ~ ~ e~ c~ 0 e~ co ~ e~ co oo ~ ~ co ~ ~ co c~ ~ c9 ~ ~ 0 ~ 0 e~ U3 ~ CO CD e~ ~ ~ U3 o: ~ 0 cs 0 co e~ c9 ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oO . . . · · · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00 ~ O 00 ~ 00 ~ ~ C53 ~ 00 0 0 0 0 ~ O O O O ~ O O O O ~ O _I _t _~ _~ _~ _~ _~ _~ ~ d C~ ~ CD ~ 00 CO 00 0 00 C~ CO C9 U: ~ ~ 00 CO ~ ~ CO ~ ~ Ut O ~ 00 ~ u: ~ C~ CO ~ 00 ~ CO CO ~ O CO O ~ 00 ~ C~ C~ (D ~ oo ~ CO u~ <9 oo O . . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00 ~ O oo ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ oo O O O C53 ~ ~ ~ O O ~ O O O O O O e~ 0 ~ 0 oo CD ~ e~ c~ ~ co ~ ~ 0 ~ u: oo ~ ~ co oo ~ -4 ~ ~ ~ CD ~ ~ CD C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C~ u3 ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 (D ~ O oo 00 oO ~ O CD ~ C~ O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O ~ O O O ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~ ~ e~ ~ e~ l l {9 oo co ~ ~ u: ~ o~ ~ ~ e~ c~ co 0 ~ ~ 0 co ~ ~ ~ ~ co oo oo tD O O O oO oo co ~ oo ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ co ~ u: u: ~ ~ ~ . . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . . . · . . cs, 0 0 0 ~ oo 0 ~ 0 0 0 0 ~ ~ 0 e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _t ~ ~ ~ ~ _I ~ _' O ~ C~ CO ~ U, CD ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a) a, a, :^ :^ ~ ~ ~ ~ :^ :% :>~ >~ :>~ :~~ :~6 ~ ~ :^ - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ "v O ~ C~ 0O ~ ~ CD a~ ~ ~ ~ Q. ~ ~ ~ ~ :^ ~ ~ :^ :% ~ ~ :^ 0 ~ e~ co ~ u, CD a' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ p~ ~ E~ :^ ~ ~ :^ :^ ~ :^ :^ ~ ~ :^ ~ :^ ~ ~ :^ :^ ~ ~ - - - - - - - 03 -,.3 ~ ~ ^~ ~ ~ ~ ~ == ~ o o o o o o o o ~ o o o o o o o o ~ o o o o o o o - : v v v v v v v v ~o v v v v v v v v ] o
229 CS~ N ~ {S) ~ CD =) ~ ~ CO {9 ~ N 1O ~ 1O N _~ ~ ~ ~ 1~ 0 u: N 0~) C~) 1 N O ~ ~ C9 N ~ CS) _~ N N {S) a~ ~ ~ ~ N 0) 00 _I _1 0 t~ U:~ . . . . . . . . . · · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CO ~ ~ ~ CO N ~ _1 _I ~ N 00 ~ ~ CO ~ N 0~ CO CO ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N CO O t~ e~ CO _t N ~ 1O _4 CS) C~ CO 1O ~ O ~ ~ (9 N CD 00 00 0 ~ lO O CD ~ _1 CO CO ~ O CO ~ CO (D ~ CO CD _1 U) CO ~ O) ~ 00 ~ CO t- CO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CO CO CO CO N ~ ~ 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CC) N ~ CO U~ ~ CO 0O CO _I 00 ~ {S) _4 1= 00 ~ t C~ _~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ _I ~ 1O {S) t CO N _I ~ N t CD CO O _~ O ~ O ~ ~4 ~ N ~ _1 00 ~ ~ ~ CO O) CO ~ O O IC~ ~ CO . . . . . . . . . · · . . . . . . . . . . . CO ~ ~ ~ CO CO N N _t ~ N 00 ~4 ~ CO ~ N 0O CO N ~ CC 1O ~ CO N CO 00 ~ ~ O CO O N O ~ C~) ~ 00 _1 ~ _i ~ N ~ 00 00 ~ CO ~ ~ ~ _~ ~ O 00 0 t O N ~ ~ CS) ~ t~ ~ 00 ~ N ~ ~ ~ 00 N N O ~ lO N eO ~ _~ _~ _~ _~ _~ O N O t0 _~ _~ O N ~ _t O ~ _~ O N ~ _~ 00 0 ~ _t ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _~ _~ ~ ~ ~ _I CO N O O N 00 ~ 00 ~ N lO ~ CC ~ ~ ~ 00 It~ O {D CO C5) 00 0 C9 (D O) _I _~ ~ ~ CO 00 N N ~ CS) 03 ~ ~ 15~ _I N CO C5) _1 ~ ~ It:~ C9 O) 00 ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ _' O N _' O ~ O O _~ N CO ~ ~ C~ ~ O ~ N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ N (U ~ 0 0 41) ~ a,.) ~ · <~) (~~ (~~ 0~ ~v c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o4 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C;S ~ CL CL (24 ~ C24 ~ o4 P. ~ Q4 Q4 ~ Q. ~ Q. :^ ~ :^ :^ ~ :^ :^ :^ ~ ~ ~ ~ E~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~m >, >, :^, >, >, :-, :., >, O ~ -, >, :>, :^, :^, au ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 3 ~ ~ C: ~: S: C: ;: C: ~ ~ ~: C: ~ ~ ~ ~ C: ~ ;: C: ~ C: C: ~ ~ C: O O O O O O O O ~ O O O O O O O O ~ O O O O O O O O O V V V V V V V V O V V V V V V V V `;S V V V V V V V V U] ~ ~ O ~ 0> r ~ ~O 5,,21. ~ O ~ =_ ~ m S:: ~ ~ c S 0 o ~ o .~ ~ ~ ~ C ° ' E 0~ 11 ~ == v ° . ~ ' o o C) ~ I! t, C) a, ~ ° .- ~ 0 ~ ~ o O ~ o ti 3 =< =° eSI _I !' ~ ~ ~ N
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232 - ._ o v o m ¢ o CO b~ ._ C~ ~4 ._ S" bO ~ ~ V ·_ (: bO ._ ~ £ X ~ o bO ._ .c X m bO X C~ ci o o ._ CS _ _ P~ o o - o ~ o eS1 :~. o ~ ._ ~o ~ a' 0 ~ V ~ 0 ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo 0 ~ co e~ e~ ~ co c~ ~ ~ O a~ CD ~ 00 CC ~ Ch ~ 0O ~ CO CO CO . . . . · · · . . · . . . . . . . . u: co ~ ~ ~ ~ O C~ ~ ~ 0 oo {9 o ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ oo o ~ ~ ~ o ~ C~ ~ o C~ oo CO ~ CO ~ o o U) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CO · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . e~ ~ u, co 0 ~ ~ ~ 0 e~ ~ e~ e~ 1 CD ~ ~ u, ~ 00 CD O CD ~ ~ O ~ 00 0 CO ~ 00 ~ ~ 0 c~ ~ ut CO ~ C9 C53 0 ~ e~ ~ ~ 0 · . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . u: CO O ~ ~ ~ O ~ e~ ~ ~ O 1 0 0 c~ e~ ~ oo CO 0o 0 ~ ~ U: ~ ~ U~ ~ O ~ U: CD CO e~ oo · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Oo 0 e~ ~ c~ CD ~ U~ ~ 00 ~ 00 ~ Ut U: CO U 0 CO C~ 0 e~ ~ C5) ~ e~ CD CO O U~ CD O 00 ~ O oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ cO ct o o ~ ~ co . · . . · · · · · . . . . . . . . . Oo a) ~ 0 CD 00 ~ U: U: 00 00 00 00 C9 CO CO (D co 0 oo e~ o: ~ o~ oo oo ~ co e~ e~ ~ ~ ~ c~ CO O ~ 00 ~ CO ~ ~ ~ CD ~ ~ ~ ~ C~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00 ~ ~ O ~ ~ CD ~ u: 00 00 ~ ~ u: u~ C~ cD oo u, ~ cO ~ ~ ~ ~ u: ~ o oo oo oo e~ ~ co ~ oo C5) ~ a~ oo ~ oo co co u~ C53 ~ co oo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ 0 e~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ 0 co u: ~ ~ vm e~ oo co e~ ~ ~ ~ co oo ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ e~ ~ oo oo ~ CD u~ CO CO CO eo oo ~ . . . . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . v~ ~ e~ 0 oo ~ oo ~ ~ ~ vO cr, ~ oo oo co ~ o ~ e~ co ~ u, CD ._ ~ ~ ~ Q, a, p, ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ e~ co ~ U, CD ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ P. V ~~ >~ >~ >~ ~~ ^, >~ ^~ ~ >~ >6 - >~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 3 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o V V V V V V V V C;S V V V V V V V V o ° ~V ¢ .s ~ ~o · ~, oo ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ o _-= 4D 0 ~ C `e ~ C~ `:s C: OD ~ ~ 1 ,= ¢ ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ ·~ O . - ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ O ~ C ~ t) ~ _ a~ C ~ ~ s" O a' ·~ C: o° ~ ~ C ~ ~ ~ 0 0 a' C: ~ 0 ~ ~ ., - , - ~ e~ ¢ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 .O ce cn O~ = ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ , O _ ~ ~ ~ ¢ 0 0o ~ ~Q == ~ C 11 ~ ~ C O ~ ~ ~ C O C ~ c5 11 ° ° ~ ~ 11 o ~ 0 o ~ o 3 ~ ~ ,>eo ~1 ~ rQ ~ ~ =~
LOCAL AREA ECONOMIC GRO WTH PATTERNS 233 employment and of residence. That is, employment (and earnings) is measured in the county in which the person is employed; population, on the other hand, is measured in the county of residence. The two need not be, and often are not, the same. Despite the looser relationships that may obtain for the county categories within any time span, Tables 8, 9, and 10 show different patterns over the time spans for the core MSA counties, the three noncore MSA county classes as a group, and the non-MSA county classes as a group. Core MSA counties tend to exhibit consistently below-average growth rates over all time spans except for the somewhat above- average growth rates in earnings during 1979-1984. If manufacturing is excluded from total earnings, the residual earnings aggregate shows an even greater difference above the average, suggesting that there was a greater rise in earnings per worker in core MSAs than elsewhere in service industries. This pattern, in turn, reflects the propensity for high-income financial, business, and professional services to locate in core MSA counties. These counties also tend to exhibit slower population growth than noncore MSA counties and, often, slower growth than non-MSA counties as well. Whereas core MSA counties tend to grow more slowly than noncore MSA counties in terms of all of the aggregates, the relative difference in the population growth rates is larger than the relative differences in earnings and employment growth rates, suggesting that core MSA counties are increasingly becoming places of work rather than places of residence. As a group, the three noncore MSA county classes exhibit above- average growth rates for all aggregates over all the time spans. This grouping is the only one that appears to exhibit a consistent or struc- tural growth pattern. The functional relationship of these county classes with the core MSA counties through work commutation fields and interindustry flows, however, does not allow the inference that the structural growth patterns are internally generated within the noncore MSA counties as an independent class. The non-MSA counties do not exhibit any consistent growth patterns. Before and after the 1970s, all of the county classes in this category exhibited below-average growth rates. The non-MSAs am pear to be more prone to boom-and-bust conditions than to growth regularities. That is, given the price volatility of the commodities that tend to be produced in non-MSAs, and the related industry effects, growth in these areas appears to be less structured on an internal developmental dynamic than on such exogenous forces as
234 Daniel H. Garruck international price movements. Because of the BEA practice of ret- rospective reclassification, holding MSA geography fixed over the entire time series, it is possible that internally generated growth in non-MSA counties might be masked. Analyses by the author of non-MSA county growth patterns using other classification schemes, however, does not indicate this to be the case. Sources of Total Personal :~come Tables 11-14 retain the same row stubs as Tables 8, 9, and 10, but instead of presenting growth rates of related economic and de- mographic aggregates, they present shares of the major components of total personal income (TPl) as a percentage of TPI for each of the initial and terminal years in the time spans under study. That is, for the four years 1959, 1969, 1979, and 1984, a cross-sectional profile of the major sources of TPI is presented to permit a comparison, for each year, of the relative importance of each major source of TPT for each of the county types, and, over the course of the four time points, of the changes in the relative importance of the income sources. Among all TPT components, wages and salaries are by far the most important over all county classes and over all the years in the ta- bles. The weight or relative importance of wages and salaries tend to diminish as the population size of county classes diminishes. Because this component (and the related benefits of other labor income) is measured by place of employment, its rank correlation with the pop- ulation size of county classes provides further evidence to support the observation that core (and, to some extent, other large) MSA counties tend to be more places of work than of residence. Wages and salaries declined as a share of TPI over the years under study, and their geographic distribution has become less disparate, reflect- ing both the regional and MSA/non-MSA dispersion of industry in the nation. Proprietors' (and partners') income includes profits as well as self-employment wage income. This component has also declined as a share of TPT over time, although in the forthcoming compre- hensive state and local area personal income revisions, adjustments for underreporting this source of TPT will substantially raise its component share (Regional Economic Measurement Division, 19863. Geographic disparity has not narrowed; the continued importance of this component in rural counties reflects the continued relative importance of farm income as well as nonfarm proprietors' income.
LOCAL AREA ECONOMIC GRO WTH PATTERNS 235 Nonfarm proprietors' income also continues to remain relatively more important in suburban fringe, core-adjacent counties than in other MSA county classes. This pattern may reflect a reporting bias, how- ever. The data source for this income component is Internal Revenue Service tax records; individual proprietors and partners may be re- porting their incomes at their residence address (adjacent to core MSA counties) rather than at a work address (possibly in the core MSA counties). The continued relative importance of property income personal interest, dividend, and rental income (including imputed rents for home ownership)- in non-MSA and suburban fringe MSA counties reflects the higher degree of home ownership in these counties as well as the higher incidence of retirees for whom personal interest, dividend, and rental income constitutes a relatively important share of their TPl. This last observation is reinforced by reference to the last column of Tables 11-14. The last two columns in the tables list government and business transfers to persons, split into two categories. Income maintenance transfers consist mainly of assistance payments, and all other trans- fers consist mainly of unemployment insurance and Social Security, government, and railroad retirement benefits. It will be noted that the geographic disparity of income maintenance transfers shows a substantial narrowing over time. Although the geographic distribu- tion of all other transfers initially was not as disparate as that for income maintenance, it has become somewhat more disparate over time, reflecting both the geographic distribution of unemployment rates and retirees' residential patterns. The growing relative importance of transfer payments in the most populated and least populated counties tends to reflect both relatively rising unemployment rates and the aging of the populations in those counties that have fallen below the average in employment growth. County populations tend to age where there is high unem- ployment or slow employment growth (except those in which retirees decide to relocate to preferred retirement communities), because the younger members of the population move to locations with more favorable employment opportunities. SUMMARY REVIEW AND POLICY OUTLOOK The U.S. economy is experiencing a reallocation of employment, both industrially and geographically. To a large extent, this reallo-
236 o ._ be CO o Pc o v o .~, o _ of to C) a, - o C) CC o L. _ o 5, m ~ ¢ O ~ V too - C. ~0 In So a' S" Do -C~=d c~1 ~ S" a, ~ ~ or ~ O ° - a~ o SO ~ O ° =-Qo 0- 0 ~ ._ Be al ~ ~= ~ U] ~1 O · , a, 0 ~ V O) 00 _1 00 ~ CO CO <9 en CD 00 co Cal O u3 u3 00 CO ~ CO ~ ~ O en 0 0 00 t~ 00 0 00 C5) ~ u, ~ e~ co co u: ~ ~ co U C5) ~ u: ~ C) t~ CO 14 ~ u: CO 00 ~ 00 00 CD lO ~ CO ~ ~ 00 0 CD u~ u3 CD ~ O _I _ 0 0 Oo u~ ~ ~ ~ 0 Oo a~ ~ ~ ~ u: ~ ~ ~ ~ Oo u~ ~ ~ ~ co cs 00 ~ ~ CS) 00 C~ CO ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 ~ CO ~ ~ ~ ~ CO C] ~ ~ 00 ~ O . · · · · · . . . · · · · · . . · · . . . . . . . . O 0 0 0 0 ~ ~ e~ e~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~ ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~ 0 0 e~ 0 e~ oo ~ oo co ~ 0 e~ ~ ~ 0 ~ u~ oo o~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ co ~ oo ~ 00 ~ 00 ~ 00 ~ CO ~ CD 00 ~ ~ CO O U: ~ ~ 00 ~ c~ ut CD {9 ~ C~ . . . . . . . . . . . . · · . . . . . . . . . . . . e~ ~ ~ e~ ~ 0 0 ~ e~ co ~ ~ o: co u: ~ co c~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ 0 _. ~ ~ ~ _I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _1 O O ~ 00 0 ~ ~ ~ <9 CC ~ O ~ ~ O ~ ~ CO ~ ~ ~ ~ u~ u~ ~ u _~ e~ ~ ~1 00 CD _1 a) CS: O 00 ~ ~ U: CO C$ . . . . . · . . · · · · · · . . . · · · . . . . . . c~ooe~oe~^ooCno~oOt~OOC~u:~)co~ 00~lco~oo0 c~ co ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ oo oo ~ oo ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ oo 0 co e~ ~ e~ ~ e~ ~ e~ C5) (D 00 CO CO e~ ~ ~ oo 0 ~ 0 co 0 0 co ~ ~ ~ co ~ oo oo · . . · · · · . · · . · . · · · · . · . . . . . . . e~ e~ ~ ~ e~ o: e~ a~ c~ e~ ~ ~ c~ co e~ a~ {D C~ u~ oo ~ oo ~ CO 0O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O CO ~ ~ ut ~ 00 u~ eo oo ~ ~ co co oo ~ ~ ~ c~ 0 oo ~ ~ ~ ~ co ~ ~ ~ oo ~ c~ co ~ ~ · . · . · · · · . · · · · · · · · . · · · · . . · . u~ ~ e~ ~ u~ cr: ~ 14 ~ ~ ~ 0 CD (D CO O u~ CO e~ ~ ~ ~ co o~ co eo CO ~ CD tD CO ~ u: ~ ~ CD CO ~ CD ~ CD CO ~ CO ~ CO CO CD CD CD u: u 00 O r4 ~ CO ~ ~ CD ~ O ~ e~ o: ~v ~ ~ a' /v ~ ~ a.) a., U' Pc a, a, ~ a, a, ~, ~ a, ~ Q~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ F~ 0 ~ e~ co ~ ~ <9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a~ a) ~ ==P~=Oc== :^ :>~ ~ ~ :% :^ ~ ~ E~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ '~ .. >. >l ~~ ~~ >~ >~ ~ bl~ >~ >~ ^ >~ > >` >~ ~~ >~ ^ ^ ~ ^ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ =~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ce O O O O O O O O _ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~O V V V V V V V V 5 V V V V V V V ~ V V V V V V V V
237 ~ <9 ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ u: ~ ~ u~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 0 ~ c~ oo u: e~ c~ ~ ~ ~ C53 ~ oo co ~ u: co co ~ e~ <9 CO CO ~ ~ o ~ oo o~ C~ ~ o ~ C~ ~ C~ ~ o oo ~ CO ~ ~ ~ ~ CO C~ ~ ~ C~ ~ C~ ~ U~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . . · . . . . . . . . . . u: ~ Ut u~ CO 00 C~ ~ ~ CD ~ u: ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 00 CD ~ ~ U) C9 ~ ~ ~ O ~ 0O U: U) U) ~ CO ~ CO a, ~ a, ~ u, ut ~ ~ U' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ co U: ~ ~ ~ <9 ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ oo <9 (D ~ ~ u, ~ ~ O ~ O ~ ~ u3 oo 0 o: oo ~ ~ ~ u: CD O CS) CD O C~ ~ 03 ~ CD ~ o0 00 00 ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . . . · . . . . · . . . . . . . O 0 0 0 0 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 0 0 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 0 0 ~ ~ ~ 03 co ~ 0 ~ O ~ e~ ~ e~ e~ c9 ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ oo oo ~ e~ ut oo ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ oo c~ ~ ~ e~ co 0 u~ ~ ~ 0 ~ 0 u: ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ co u: ~ ~ ~ co 0 ~ a~ Ut oo (D cs ~ ~ o; ~ ~ O ~ C5) u0 ~ ~ ~ C5) CC O U: _ a~ c~ (D CS) . ·· · ·.·.··.···.·· · . u, 0 0 0 ~ 0 0 oo ~ ~ ~ co ~ co u: ~ 0 co ~ co ~ oo oo ~ ~ e~ e~ ~ oo ~ e~ ~ co e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ r4 e~ ~ oo ~ 0 ~ ,4 co ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ c~ cs) ~ ~ Ut ~ oo CD ~ CO e~ e~ ~ CD U~ C~ ~ 00 ut <9 00 ~ (D ~ c~ O c~ O ~ ~ 03 CO U~ 00 ~ oo 00 ~ 00 0 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 ~ ~ O ~ ~ CO CO ~ C~ . · . · . . . . . . · . . . . . . . · . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . . . O ~ co oo C~ oo oo oo u, ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ 0 u: ~ ~ ~ 0 0 co ~ oo oo ~ ~ 0 oo O ~ ~ {D ~ C~ e~ e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ c~ o: ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c' co ~ ~ ~ oo oo co ~ ~ C9 CD O co ~ ~ oo co ~ CS) ~ ~ ~ co ~ ~ ~ ~ U~ CD 49 ~ O ~ ~ O 03 a e~ o: 0 ~ e~ CD ~ ~ 00 e~ ~ co oo ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ co ~ ~ u: U ~ CD cs ~ co ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ co . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a~ co co co co e~ ~ e~ co ~ e~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C~ ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ e~ oo e~ oo ~ 0 co ~ co co a~ e~ ~ ~ 0 o: oo oO cr~ 0 0 u~ Oo ~ oo ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ oo u~ U~ e~ ~ oo oo U: ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ C;) 00 <9 ~ ~ 00 ~ ~ C9 0 0 C~ <9 ~ ~ ~ 0Q CO ~ ~ CD ~ ~ e~ u, oo u~ C9 . . . . . . . . . · . . · . . . . · . . · · . . · . · . . . . . . . . . Oo e~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ oo ~ oo ~ ~ ~ co e~ U~ <9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c9 0 0 ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ c~ u: -4 ~ e~ CO ~ ~ ~ CD (9 ~ ~ ~ U ~ U CD CO ~ U: CC CO <9 <9 <9 CD CD CD (D ~ ~ ~ <9 CO (D CO ut CO 0 ~ e~ co ~ U, cs ~ 0 ~ e~ o: ~ ~ CD ~ 0 "4 ~ CO ~ U, CO ~ O ~ e~ co ~ u, eD ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a, a, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a, ~ a~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a' ~ ~ ~ ~ =~= =~= =~=P. ~= :^ :^ :^ :^ :^ ~ ~ ~ :^ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ :^ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ :^ O~ ~ ~E-~ ~ :>6 :>~ :> :~~ ~ :~~ :~6 :>~ :>~ :~~ >~ :~~ :>. :> :> :~. ~ :>. :>. :>l >. ~ ^ :^ :^ o~ ^ ~ ^ ~ ^ ^ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 3 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C~ o o o o o o o o ~ o o o o o o o o ~ o o o o o o o o ~ o o o o o o o o ~ V V V V V V V V ·~ V V V V V V V V ~ V V V V V V V V ~ V V V V V V V V s" _ o o ~ ~ U] VO
238 o 5 o P4 _ C: - a' s" ~ ~ ~, ¢ o ~ ~ m C) 5 :^ =E ~ -4 a~ o" ~ o P~ t_ s" s" =rQ O ~ ct o ~ I_ a, a; a, ~ "= ~ ;^ ~ U] ~_ O c01 _ ~ a ~, ~V oo C~ ~ O ~ ~ O ~ <9 C~ ~ CO 00 ~ ~ CD CO oo o: 0 c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ 0 <9 c~ ~ oo co . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CO ~ U: u: (D oo ~ oO ~ u3 ~ CD CO ~ ~ ~ u: a~ ~ e~ ~ c~ ~ u~ o~ O c~ oo ~ ~ co o~ e~ ~ 0 c~ ~ ~ oo oo ~ ~ ~ u: O oo 0 ~ ~ ~ e~ 0 c~ . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . e~ c9 u3 e~ CD ~ e~ ~ ~ co ~ ~ ~ oo oo u, co ~ a, ~ c~ CD ~ CO O ~ CD ~ C~ ~ ~ 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . oO 0 0 ~ c~ ~ a, ~ e~ oo c~ ~ ~ u: u, e~ c~ ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _' ) ~ u: o u: ~ ~ oo o: oo o ~ ~ c9 cs) o : ~ cO ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o oo ~ ~ u: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . oo 0 ~ ~ cs ~ u, c~ O CO ~ ~ ~ ~ u' a, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ut CO e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo 0 ~ oo cs) ~ ~ O oO 0 ~ u' C~ ~ u3 0 C~ CD ~ CO ~ C9 u: ~ ~ c~ e~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . e~ ~ e~ e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ e~ C~ ~ ~ _~ _1 ~ N ~ 00 00 ~ ~ e~ U: CO ~ CS) ~ C~ CO ~ ~ C~ C~ ~ CD CS ~ ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ e~ e~ ~ CD ~ C5) ~ e~ ~ oo ~ 0 cs ~ C5) co u' CO ~ U~ CD CD U~ ~ ~ u: ~ ~ u: CD u: u: u~ u: u3 ~ o~ ~= - = =0 o - = = - =~0 ._ ~ 4,, ~ ~ ~ ~ 4,, ~ 4) a) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Q. `2.. a. o. o. o. ~ o. L:24 ~ ~ P. ~ ~ ~ ~ :~~ :> :~6 :> :^ ~ ~ ~ >. >. :>~ ~ ^ ~ ~ :^ O >, -, ,, >, >, >, ,, >, ~ >, >, ^, ~ ~ :^ :^ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ :^ O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O o v v v v v v v v ~ V V V V V V V V _b ~ V CS ~ ~ L. _ ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ·~ ~ ~ O 11 11 ~ £ S ~ o^O c ~ E ~ _ ~ ce 0 0 c;~ ·_ p, ~,0 0 11 ~ ~c 0 ° 1I E · _ _ 0 , ~ O~ O ~,, ~ ~ a ° ° ~ ;: ii . ~ ~ ~: E E x o o 5 =.,r: _C ~ ~ ~ 0-= ~, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O O ~ =- ~ E_ ~ ~ ~ c, o. cL ~ E ~ .. >. O ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ·m :>. ~ O ~ ~ ~5 a~ o ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ E lv ~ O ~ ~ ~ 0 o0~1 ==
239 rS o ._ ~o :^ a~ o o . o _% oo bB s" o o oo _ CO o E-' - e~ m ~ <5; o ~ v a u a°~ 0o S" C~ ~ L4 ~o~ C) ~QI a, O.~ ~ ~ Y _~ ~ci :^ s" o O - ~n o s" O O s" ~ o ,~ r~ ,° O ~ ~ a, o, ~ ~V ·" :^ ~ U] ~1 oo O ~ ._ bO ~ ~ o ~ V ~ ~ ~ CC ~ CC 0O C9 0 0 ~ C~ ~ O CD ~ ~ 00 CO CD ~ ~ 00 0 00 e~ CO C~ U~ U: ~ o ~ C9 CO ~ C9 ~ ~ 00 U 03 u: ~ L0 CO CO ~ C~ ~ CO CO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CO ~ t 00 O ~ _t _I ~ CO ~ ~ 00 C) O _1 t~ CD t~ ~ O ~ O e~ o: e~ ~ ~ oo ~ co co 0 co e~ ~ c9 co 0 u: oo ~ oo U~ oo ~ ~ e~ o O C9 ~ ~ C5) 0 ~ CO ~ ~ C~ ~ <9 CD O ~ O U, CD ~ ~ ~ 00 00 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0~00000~000000000000000000 a~ e~ ~ CD 00 u~ ~ ~ C~ ~ ~ a~ o: oo u~ u3 ~ ~ e~ 0 e~ cs~ ~ 0 ~ ~o co ~ co O ~ O ~ ~ O C53 oO co co c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ co ~ c~ ~ u~ ~ 0 o~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0O C~ CD a~ e~ oo e~ ~ u~ ~ ~ a~ u: ~ CO co ~ ~ c~0 C~ co ~P ~ ~ _~ _~ _I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ o: ~ cg ~ oo ~ co ~ c~ co O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ c~ O C53 cs ~ c9 c~ ~ ~ 0 o~ u: oo ~ u: oo e~ co ~ c~ ~ ~ co ~ 0 co co u~ oo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Oo ut oo ~ oo e~ CO C~ ~ CD CD ~ CD ~ 00 ~ ~ C9 ~ 00 CD Ch O eq u, ut e~ e~ e~ ~ co ~ ut O e~ co co 0 ut CO ~ ut ~ CO oo ~ u: o: CD ~ U~ 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 0 ~ O ~ ~ C~ CO CD U: ~ ~ ~ ~ (D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 03 co ~ ~ o: oo co e~ c~ co ~ co ~ co co co e~ co co o: ~ co co co ~ e~ e~ oo ~ oo ~ ~ 0 oo cs ~ CO 0 e~ 0 ~ ~ 0 co e~ ut ut CD CO ~ e~ co ~ co co e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ co 0 0 co ~P ~ o: o~ oo · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U3 0 CO ~ u, ~ 0 ~ ut u: ~ oo ~ ut ~ ~ CO ~ ~ ~ 00 C~ ~ ~ oo e~ CD ~ C9 C9 ~ ~ CS) ~ ~ CS) CO CD eo C9 CD u: u: CD ~ CD CD C9 CD u: u: oo e~ a, ~ ut C9 ~ O ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ co 4D ~ /V Q, 4U O 41) ~ ~ ~ /U 411 a., ~ ~ ~ a ~Q ~ a, ~ Q, C2, ~ ~ a, o., ~ CL L~ o. ~ a. Q Pc o ;>~ ~;~~ :~. :~ :>. ~;~. >. ~ ~ :~. P>~ ^ >~ ;~~ ¢~~ >~ ~ > > ;~6 ~;~~ >~ ~~ > a, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .= ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ r~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 0 0 _ _ ,,, O O ~ ~ _ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O V V V V V V V V ~ V V V V V V V ~ V V V V V V V V Z ~
240 _ - ~s ._ o v en m - d Pa d sat al _ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ -~1 CJ-C~ c> :~ In o ._ 0~ ~ O rQ ~ ~ ,4 O ~ l_ al or ~ ~ ._ ~ ~:5 ~ 3 Bus dS1 a) on _ ~ ret _ . o ~ ._ be ~ o ~ V en 0 up ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 co ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 49 CD ~ ~ Cal ~ U30 00 Us ~ ~ 0 03 0 ~ ~ C9 U: ~ ~ ~ 0 0 0 . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ ~ CD CO ~ ~ O ~ DO ~ ~ CD CO 00 ~ CS) ~ O 00 so 00 ~ ~ ~ O en en oo ~ oo oo U. a, ~ 0 oo ~ oo ~ ~ e~ 0 0 co u: e~ ~ ~ ~ cs oo ~ ~ O u, ~ a: ~ ~ ~ co u: ~ ~ eo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ U: ~ U. ~ CO o, o. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~ ~ e~ c~ 0 ~ co ~ oo ~ u~ ~ ~ ~ 0 a~ 0 oo CO CD ~ CD u~ u~ 0o U~ 00 ~ O U CD ~ ~ ~ tD CO 0. ~ ~ {D e~ ~ ~ ~ (D CD O ~ O. CO 00 ut e~ ~ o. oo ~ e~ ~ u~ O eq oo a~ u~ ~ ~ O CD C~ 0O ~ ~ ~ 00 e~ oo c~ co ~ 0 0 0 0 ~ ~ _t _I _~ ~ I ~ _I _ 0 oo ~ ~ co 0 0 Oo ~ 0 0 0 e~ <9 0 0 oo ~ IO ~ 0 oo Ut co ~ oo e~ ~ C~ ~ ~ 00 ~ ~ CD O C~ e~ ~ ~ c~ c~ ~ 0 oo ~ co c~ ~ c~ co . · · · · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . e~ ~ ~ ~ a) co o: e~ oo ~ u~ oO ~ O CD tD ~ O CS~ CD ~ ~ 00 e~ e~ CD 00 ~4 ~ e~ ~ _~ _I _~ _~ eo co C~ ut ~ CO O ~ O ~ ~ CD ~ e~ CO ~ oo 0 co e~ e~ u~ oo ~ ~ ~ a~ co 0 ~ a~ e~ ~ ~ oo U3 e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C5> C5) ~ ~ ~ co 0 u: c9 co ~ ~ 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . oo co e~ oo ~ co oo co e~ ~ ~ ~ oo o: o~ co oo co a~ ~ co {D ~ C53 u: ~ ~ 00 u~ e~ 0 ut ~ oo oo ~ ~ u: co ~ co ~ co 49 a~ ~ CD 0 ~ co e~ 0 oo ~ 0 e~ a) co ~ ~ 0 co co o~ ~ ~ e~ ~ oo ~ ut O c~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . c~ ~ ~ {D ~ oo (9 0 C5) ~ o: CO CO ut CS u: ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ e~ c~ ~ e~ CO ~ (D ~ CD u: ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CD ~ ~ u~ u~ CO CO CD CD CD C9 CD ~ tD u~ u 0 -4 C~ o: ~ ut {D~ ~ ~ :^ ~ :^ :~ ~ :^ rY >. h. ~. >. ^e ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e e ~ c: ~ e e e e e e e e e e ,,, ~ e c: e e e e ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 V V V V V V V V ~ V V V V V V V V O V V V V V V V V P~ en 0 ~ e~ co ~ ut ~ ~ 0 ~ e~ co ~ ~ {9 a, ~ ~ ~ q, ~ ~ ~Q.~= =~= :^ :^ :^ :^ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ : ~ ~ ~ . . ~ . . ~ :^ ~ ~ :^ ~ ~ :^ ~ :^ :^ :^ ~ :^ :^ :^ :^ e e e e e e e ~ ~ ~ e ~ e e e e ~
241 e~ ~ co O ~ ~ Ch oo ~ e~ cs ~ e~ ~ oo e4 ~ ~ c~ 00 CO C~ U: 00 U 00 CO C~ CD CS) ~ O h, ~ ~ ~ 00 ~ ~ e~ co ~ 0 oo ~ CD ~ CD u: ~ CO . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . oo ~ 0 e~ 0 ~ ~ oo ~ oo 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ CD 00 ~ O O O ~ O 0 ~ ~ e~ 0 oo e~ o: ~ tD ~ e~ ~ u, ~ ~ 0 ~ u: ~ oo ~ a, oo 0 0 ut oo e~ oo <9 oo oo c~ oo u~ ~ e~ ~ co ~ cs~ ~ ~ oo co c~ ~ oo e~ u: co CO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ooooo----ooooooo~o~--~--oo {D O e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ oo ~ oo CO 0 oo ~ c~ c~ ~ co ~ ~ CD O e~ e~ ~ o: ~ ~ oo ut CD ~ CS' ~ u: ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ oo ~ e~ u: ~ CC u, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . co co u: co c~ co e~ u: ~ co 0 oo c~ ~ co ~ ~ ~ co e4 ~ co ~ co e~ e~ a~ _I 1 _1 _~ _~ _~ _4 _1 _l ~ 4 _~ _~ _~ _4 _~ _I _~ _1 _~ _~ _l 0O ~ O ~ CD 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 CO ~ e~ ~ ~ 0 co oo ~ 0 ~ e4 ~ ut e~ 0 ~ ·4 ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ 0 e~ eo ~ co ~ cs) ~ oo ~ ~ ~ <9 co co . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . c~ ~ co u: e~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ a~ oo co 0 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a~ . ~ ' ~ ~ ~ . _ ~ >_ _ g ~ O ~-- 11 ~ ~ ~ - . _ ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ o o ~ 3 ~ .= (~) _ ~~ Ct~ o o {~ ~ ~ ° ~° ~ n ° li ~ · i i 0 m d 0 0 U ~ C C ° ° U] C , · ' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ C ~ C~ ~.3 > > 0 0 >~= °o O ~ ~ ~ ~5 ~ cl {~ U] C C E `e ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C ~ m O _l ~ COU3 C9 0 = 0 ~ co ~ u~ co m 0 _~ e~ o~ ~ = cD m _1 ~ ~ VO VO ~ ~ V 4) ~ ~ ~ ._ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .. t~ ~ ~ P. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ P4 ~ ~ ~ P~ ~ ~ ~ Q. ~ P" ~ ~ CL ~ °° dV ~ O ~ ~ .m 4= >, >, >, ,, .. >, >, ,, o >, ,, .. ^, >, >, >~ ~, ~ >, >, >, ~, :^ :^ :^ :^ ~ ~ ~ O .~ .~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ° ~ ~v ~v a: eq ~ ~ 3 S C C C C C ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C C C ~ C ~ C ~ ~ C C C ~~ ~t a~ q~ v v 5 -t ~ ~ ~t ~ ~ 5 ~ ~ ~ 2 -t ~ ~, 3 ~ ~ ~ ~ C O bl) 0 1 ~ ·~·~ ~ `;S O O O O O O O O ~ O O O O O O O O ~ O O O O O O O O -t ._ ·~ C ~ ~ C C v ~ ~ O V V V V V V V V O V V V V V V V V aS V V V V V V V V V ·- O ~ U:2 CQ o 0 04 c =0 CQ ~ ~ ~1 ~ v es ~ ~ v v~l ~ O ~ A) 0' ~ e~ 0 0 ~ co ~ ~ ut C~ ~ e~ ~ u: ~ ~ O ~ oo CD a~ a) (D oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u: O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ co c9 ~ u: e~ co co co ~ co co co ~ a) c~ ~ c~ co e~ o~ o: c~ a~ co a~ e~ u~ ~ e~ co oo ~ u: ut ~ ~ CO 00 ~ e~ ut CD a~ oo ut ~ a~ u~ co ~ ~ ~ e~ e~ co oo c~ ~ CD e~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ e~ oo co a: u~ e~ ~ oo o~ co c~ oo CD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ O ~ ~ CO CD ~ ~ CO C~ CO CD ~ CD ~ ~ C5) 0 ~ 00 00 e~ ~ ~ oo {D ~ CD CD CO u: CD ~ ~ CD~ ~ CD CO ~ u: ~ u: CO ~ u: ~ u: u:
242 o ._ bO oo o o v s" o .~ o cn a, b4 C. s" a~ CC ~_ o 3 C~ o U} _ CD C: C5) ~ _1 o , - CO ~ V o - o a, P~ o E~ os au ~ U' o ~ ~1 C: o~ ~ `i ~ ~4 ~ o no-3 - oo o a' i- ~ ~3 =,~ o o~ ~ a~ c, ~= ~ ~1 oq >. . - .° ~ o ~ V ut ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 co 0 0 o: co 0 u~ oo ~ ~ ~ oo cs ~ ~ ~ e~ e~ u o ~ ~ o ~ o ~ oo ~ ~ CC ~ CD oo CO ~ CO ~ CO ~ ~ o oo CO ~ o .··· · ·· ··. oO 0 ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ e~ ~ ~ u~ ~ O ~ ~ CO CO u: oo 0 co e~ 0 0 0 co oo oo ~ oo 0 co 0 <9 ~ co ~ co ~ a) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo CO CD ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ CD (D ~ O ~ ~ e~ e~ ~ ~ CD ~ oo ~ C~ ~ ~ CO 49 . . · · . · · . . . · . · · . · · · · . . . · · · . _ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ e~ co e~ oo o: CD ~ ~ ~ a~ ~ e~ oo ~ oo oo ~ ~ cg ~ oo ~ 0 0 ~ co ~ ~ u~ ~ c~ ~ ~ e~ u~ oo 0 ~ c~ 0 ~ co cs) co c~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ co ..······················· o~ ~ ~ co ~ ~ CD e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C9 0 ~ 0: 00 CO ~ ~ ~P CD _I ~ ~ _1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _I ~ _~ ~ _~ ~ _ C~ ~ C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ CD O e~ co co ~ O ~ co Ch oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u~ ~ ~ 0O ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 C9 ~ U: ~ 00 0 C~ ~ ~ U: ~ 00 ~ ~ ~ C9 00 0 . · . · . · · . . . . . . . . . · · . . · . . . · . (D ~ CO U CO 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~P ~ 10 CD 00 ~ ~ C~ ~ ~ ~ CD O oO ~ ~P oO ~ ~ (D O c~ Ut ~ CC U, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ cs c~ CD O U: ~ ~ ~ CO ~ ~ 00 ~ ~ O ~ ~ C~ C~ CD Ub ~ C~ CD ~ 00 ············.·· ·· · . u: ~ u~ ~ ut ~ u~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u~ tD ~ u~ ~ ~ ~ u~ u~ CO ~ ut u: O ~ 0O h~ C53 e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ oo (D CD ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CD U oo a~ co (D oo CO CO ~ ~ ~ CD CD ~ ~ oO e~ ~ co . . . . . . . . . . · . · · · · · · · · · · · · · O u, ~ e~ 0 ~ C9 ~ ~ 0 ~ a, ~ ~ co e~ oo ~ u3 oo c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u: CO 49 u: ~ C9 ~ U: ~ ~ CO CD CD u: u: u~ ~ ~ (D CO u: CO u~ ~ ~o 03 c~ co ~ ut ~ ~ 0 ~ e~ c~ ~ u: ~ 0 ~ c~ co ~ u, co ~, p ~2., Q4 Q, ~ ~4 = = ~, ~24 ~24 = p- = ~ Q4 ~ ~ ~24 ~ Q4 ~ ~ >~ ~ ^= ~ ~ ~ ~ >~ ~ ~ >6 -e >~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ E~ E~ E~ ~ ~ ~ ~ E~ E~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ·_ >~ ~ >~ bo >~ >~ ^~ >~ >~ ^ :^ :% ~ ~ ~ ^ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ = ~ O O O O O O O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a' 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~o V V V V V V V V 3 V V V V V V V .= V V V V V V V V
243 t.D c: t- oo ~ ~ en O] t- _I t- ~ ~ co ~ ~ ~ co ~ co ~ co ~ ~ ~ CD ~ ~ O ~ 00 0 10 CO en ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ co ~ 0 ~ en 0 CD ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CD ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ 0 00 . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . · . · · · · . . . . . . · . . . . . . . O oo ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ 0 cat en ~ co cot ~ ~ ~ Cal ~ ~ u: ~ 0 up 0 0 ~ up co ~ Ed ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Ed C5) as ~ ~ ~ CO ~ 0 0 Ed ~ ~ a, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U) a, ~ (D CD 00 ~ Ut CO ~ up Ed 0 u: ~ O O 0. e~ ~ e~ oo ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ oo oo co ~ ~ O ~ ~ C5) ~ ~ oo o: ~ oo c~ ~ co 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ c~ 0 0 0 0 0 ~ ut CD e~ ~ ~ oo ~ co oo U~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo e~ ~ e~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 e~ ~ co ~ ~ oo co e~ Ut co ~ oo 0 ~ oo ~ oo co ~ ~ CD O 03 03 ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ CD O 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ 0O ~ C~ . . . . . . . · . · . · · . . · · · · · . · · . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0O e~ c9 ~ co Ut ~ ~ ~ U 0 CD e~ a~ CD CD ~ O CO ~ ~ Ut 0~ 0O ~ C~ 0O ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ c9 ~ oo oo _~ _1 _~ ~ ~ _~ _I _1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ _ _ ~ ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o~ e~ ~ ~ 0 ~ _ co _I t_ _d co ~ ~ ~ O oo ~ co c9 co~ ~ ~ O o: ~ e~ e9 O)O ~ c~ ~ co 49 u: c~ co ~ ~ (D CO O 1O CO CO CO ~ c) <5) CS) CO O ~ CD U) ~ ~ Cr: CD ~ CO ~ CD 00 00 _ co ~ U:~ t- ~ ~ ~ ~ C5) e~ _~ _4 ~ ~ _ _1 C`4 00 u~ ~ 00 C5) 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ O O ~ U: ~ ~ Ut CO C~ CD ~ CO 00 ~ C~ O O 00 00 C~ C~ CO CS) CD CO _ ~ cs e~ c~ ~ oo u:~ a) ~ co ~ oo co r_I oo oo U ~ t- 0 ~ t- ~ ~ e~ oo CD u: ~ t- CO e~ ~ . ····.· ·····.· · . C9 CD CO ~ CD ~ U: ~ ~ U ~ ~ <9 U~ U ~ CO ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U~ ~ U~ u: ~ ut CD ~ u: u: ~ u~ ~ o (D ~ c~ ~ c~ co ~ O CO a, ~ ~ ~ <9 ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ oo oo ~ ~ e~ 0 ~ ~ c~ ~ co oo ~ c~ u, cs~ e~ ~~ _1 ~I CD t- t- ~ e~ O) _1 00 ~ e~ ~ t- 00 ~ (D CD CD _ O 00 ~ 00 0 a) e~ U: ~ _ e~ a) . . . . . . . · . . · . · . · · . . · . . . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . e~ ~ 0 ~ e~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ {D e~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ oo e~ co CO CO CD CO CD U: U: ~ ~ U C9 CD CD C9 U~ ~ CO CC ~ CD CO CO {D U U3 ~ ~ (D {9 ~ ~ u: ~ ut 0 ~ e~ co ~ Ut CD ~ a, ~ ~ ~ ~ a) ~ :% :^ ~ ~ :^ ~ ~ :^ >~ :>~ ~ >~ :~, ~ :>~ :^ e 0 ~ e~ co ~ u' co ~ 0 ~ e~ a: ~ u, co ~ 0 ~ c~ co ~ U3 CD ~ ~ a, a, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a, ~ a, = ~ Q. ~ ~< ~ ~ = = ~ ~ ~4 ~< ~ ~ = = ~ = p4 ~ ~ = 0- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ E~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ E~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ E~ ~ E~ ~ ~ :^ ~ :^ ~ ~ ~ :^ ~ ~ :^ :^ ~ :^ ~ ~ ~ ~ a) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ :~ :^ :^ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 3 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o o o o o o o o ~ o o o o o o o o ~ o o o o o o o o V V V V V V V V ~ V V V V V V V V Oo V V V V V V V V o V V V V V V V V U] ~Q
244 _~ ._ o v CO m ¢ E a, ct ~o m ~ m _~ ~ ~ O ~ ~Ql c: m ~ ~ m oo~ ~ = :^ s" ~ s" ~ m "0 .O ~ Ll ~o ~ I_ s~ s" ~ ~rQ ° o~3 m m ~ ~ ._ bO,,~ ~ C: CQ cQ1 c: ~ m ,, .° bO O V ~ 0 ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ co c~ c~ ~ ~ oo e~ e~ 0 ~ ~ ~ oo u: ~ ~ oo ~ O e~ ~ ~ ~ u: o~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O CD C5) ~ O co O ut O O ~ ~ e~ c~ co co ~ o: e~ oo ~ c9 CD a) e~ oo oo CD ~ ~ ~ e~ 0 ~ oo u: CD ~ O CS) ~ ~ U~ u~ C~ ~ CO ~ U3 00 e~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O O O O ~ O ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O co oO co co oO O ~ ~ co co ~ ~ ~ ~ cO ~ ~ oO oo e~ c~ u: u~ ~ ~ u: c~ ~ 0 <9 e~ ~ 0 co co . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 ~ o: co ~ u, oo ~ ~ u, 0 cs c~ oo ~ 0 c9 ~ O ~ 0 e~ ~ CD ~ ~ ~ ~ CD Co ~ O ~ 00 0 oo co e~ u . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . oo u: CD ~ ~ ~ C~ CS ~ 00 ~ 00 0 ~ CO oo ~ ~ ~ 0 u' c') ~ O ~ ~ co C5) u: 0 0 ~ oo oo ~ c~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ oO C53 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . u: ~ ~ u, ~ ~ co ~ u, u: ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ co o: cg co oo ~ e~ ~ ~ e~ cn oo co ~ u: ~ ~ oo c~ c~ ~ ~ U3 ~ oo a~ ~ U~ CD e~ co U~ CD O 0O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ ~ ~ u~ C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O CO eo ~ (D e~ oo co oo CD ~ ~ CO C9 ~ U: ~ U: CD CD u: ~ ~3 u~ u 0 ~ c~ o: ~ u, c9 ~ 0 ~ e~ cO ~ u, cs ·= a,~ a. o.. L24 a, ~ a, Q. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ P~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ :^ ~ :^ :^ =~ ~ O >, t>, ^, >, >, ~, >, >~ >6 ~~ ~ ~ >3 > ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U3 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _' :- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ = 0 0 0 0 0 O VV VV VV VV c0V VV VV VV V E`4 V Li m~ ~ ~ 5 - ,,. s ~ 1 1 ~ ~ ~ - ~ ~ a e ~ o: ~ ~ 3 E ~ ~ ~ _I CS ° ° CtS ~ ~ C: o ~O c O O It E · ~ ~ ~ O ~ ·- · _ ¢: ~ D, ~ ~ ~ ~ O O ~ ~ ~ ~ ° ° _C ~ ~ ~ ~ 3 ~ ~ o ° ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o .= ,, U] (,, ~ ~ ~s Sc C) ~ C ° °v ·~ ~ ~ m a~ c: C ~ 3 0 ~ a5.c; c~ ~_ ~~ ° `~: ~ ~ v° t°,QI bOS
245 o ._ b. :^ oo o o v s" o .~ C: o _` oo s" o, o C) C: o U3 _ oo ~ _t o E- - ~ :^ m ~ O V a, o C) ~_ - o P~ o U: S" 0G _ ~ 0 ~ =.~1 CC S" ~ = Eoci O ° - 00 S" o ._ S" ~ h _ O ~ ~ oo o q,) i- C~ ~ ~ i' ~ U. ~1 O O ~ V co CS~ e~ cs cs <9 0 ~ ~ 0 ~ oo ~ e~ CD ~ U: 0O co ~ ~ ~ CO C~ CO CD ~ ~ CO 00 ~ ~ O ~ C~ U~ O U: ~ ~ 00 C~ 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CD ~ U~ . . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CO ~ u, (D CO ~ C~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ U) e~ O ~ c~ (D 00 CO Cs) O4 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ oo ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ oo CD 00 C~ ~ 00 0 C~ e~ ~ ~ u, e~ ~ ~ ut O co c9 c~ U: ~ ~ ~ U~ ~ <9 ~ 0 ~ 0 c~ 0 0 c9 ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 e~ c9 ~ ~ ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C' O co ~ cn 0 ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 co u~ co 0 ~ ~ u~ ~ oo ~ e~ c~ oo ~ ~ c~ ~ 0 U3 ~ e~ oo ~ ~ ~ co ~ oo oo 0 ~ e~ ~ oo ~ ~ co . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Oo u: 0 ~ oo 0 ~ oo a~ oo CD {9 ~ ~ e~ 0 ~ ~ u~ ~ ~ oo oo ~ c~ c~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ c~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ eq c~ ~ co oo cs ~ co ~ U3 C`4 c~ ~ oo oo ~ ~ oo oo oo ~ ~ u~ c~ cs oo co ~ 0 ~ co oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a~ ~ co ~ ~ 0 ~ c~ CO u: ~ oo ~ oo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . o 10 ~ U: CD CO O ~ ~ ~ CO ~ ~ ~ CO ~ ~ C~ U~ CO ~ ~ (D e~ oo ~ cO co ~ ~ co o ~ ~ oo co ~ ~ ~ co u: oO oo ~ ~ co o ~ co ~ o C~ U: O ~ ~ C5) 0 ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ O O O ~ ~ ~ ~ O CO ~ ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CO CO CS) C9 CD ~ CD ~ ~ CO ~ C~ eo C9 U~ (D U~ ~ U: ~ c9 ~ CD a~ cs ~ 0 co 0 0 ~ oo ~ co CD ~ ~ <9 ~ 0O ~ ~ CO (D CO oo cs) c~ 00 ~ ~ c~ co ~ ~ ~ oo a~ ~ ~ 0 oo u: oo o: ~ oo · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ a~ <9 oo u: ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ O C5) U: oo ~ U~ co c~ ~ C5) ~4 ~ u: CO ~ u3 u: ~ u~ ~ ~ u: CO tD u: ~ ~ ~ ~ u: CO ~ u: ~ ~ ~ ~ o: oo a' c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ e~ co ~ u, ~ 0 ~ c~ co ~ ~ cs ~ ~v ~v (U a) ~u ~ (U a., ~ a, ~u CO a, a, a, a, `:24 o4 (2, ~ a, C2., a, o. Q. ~ ~, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ = ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ;^ ~ :^ ~ ~ :% :^ :^ ~ - E-~E-~ =~ ~ .c ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o V V V V V V V V 3 V V V V V V V ~ V V V V V V V V
246 _ a, ._ o v _, m ¢ EN o o S" - 00 L 0o _ ~ C~ ~ 0 ~ ~QI C~ oo o° ~i ·~s s" ~ o O o' o .O (V O O s" ~ o o O ~ 04 ~n ~n ~= ~ ~1 ~4 ~ r~ _ ~ O ~ ._ b4 a) 0 ~ V oo co ut ~ ~ ~ <9 ~ c~ ~ ~ e~ 0 ~ C9 ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O O ~ oo ~ co ~ ~ u3 co ~ ~ ~ CC (D C~ O 00 0 u: ~ 0: 0 C5) 0 ~ 00 ~ e~ oo co ~ ~ ~ ~ CO ~ co ~ ~ cs~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . o ~ ~ C~ ~ CO CO o ~ oo ~ Ch ~ ~ ~ CO ~ oo ~ ~ ~ CO ~ U~ ~ ~ o U: o o ~ ~ ~ ~ _1 _1 ~ ~ C~ _I ~ ~ _~ 4 _I ~ ~ _1 e~ ~ ~ ~ co ~ ~ co ~ co e~ ~ ~ ~ CD 0O 00 0 U: ~ ~ 0O ~ 0O _ ~ C~ O O CO U, u: ~ ~ a, ~ ~ u: CO ~ oo ~ u: oO ~ 00 0 ~ ~ e~ O co ~ O 00 ~ ~ O oo ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~ 0 0 ~ ~ 0 0 ~ ~ ~ e~ co 0 0 0 0 oo co oo ~ ~ oo a~ CO co _ co oo ~ ~ ~ oo ~ u~ ~ co e~ a: ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u eD ~ c~ ~ a, 0 ~ oo ~ _ oo 0 ~ e~ co ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CD C~ ~ U: C5) CD ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 ~ 00 ~ ~ U3 ~ O co ~ ~ 00 e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u~ ~ oo ~ oo co ~ oo oo ~ e~ ~ e~ ~ e~ e~ ~ ~ ~ _ _ c~ e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ ~ ~ 4 _ c~ _1 cs) ~ o: ~ ~ 0 ~ oo c~ _ co ut <9 ~ oo oo 0 ~ 0 oo -4 ~ U, CO C~ _ ~ ~ e~ u' ~ u~ c~ ~ o: ~ ~ 0O CO ~ c~ C~ oO ~ e~ ~ cs c~4 ~ a~ c~ 0 e~ e~ ~ ~ _ ~ ~ c~ C5) 0 . · . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . . . ~ o: ~ CO0 C9 ~ 00 00 0O u: u: ~ 00 ~ U3 00 U: ~ ~ ~ u3 U~ CO 00 CD ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o: ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ u~ ~ e~ ~ 0 CD U: ~ ~D CO u~ _ CD ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O e~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ e~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ o~ ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ oo u~ a~ e~ _ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CO {9 CD ~ tS) CO CD u~ ~ u: CD CO ~ <9 ~ u: CO CO CO CD U: CD C~ ~ ~ ~ u~ co ~ ~ cs oo 0 oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ut ~ ~ u: ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 ~ ~ CO ~ CO ~ CO U: e~ ~ e~ ~ ~ O O ~ ~ 00 ~ CO 0: ~ ~ 00 0 0; 0 ~ CO U~ ~ O C~ O ~ CDCO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . t~eq=~=ooo~oe~u:ooe~csooooco~co~cs)oome~o:ooOoou:o u: CD U: ~ U~ ~ u: a~ ~ ~ CD u: CD u: ~ ~ a: o: ~ CD ~ u: ~ ~ u: ~ ~ Ut CD U~ CO O ~ C~ CO ~ U: (D ~> a~ ~ ~ ~ =Q4~= ~ :` ~ :^ ~ :^ =: >. >. >. >. >~ :~l :^ cS 0 ~ e~ co ~ u: c9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a~ a, ~ p-~= == ~ :^ :^ :^ :^ ~ ~ :^ :^ ~ :^ :% ~ ~ ~ :^ ~ :^ :^ ~ ~ ~ ~ :^ :^ ~ :^ :^ :^ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 3 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ,- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ,~ o o o o o o o o ~ o o o o o o o o ~ o o o ~ V V V V V V V V ·C. V V V V V V V V ~ V V V V V V V V ~ V V V _ o o ~ ~ CO U] o ~ ~ o, ~ ~ CS ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a~ :^ ~ :^ :^ ~ ~ :^ O a, ~ P~ _` ~ ~
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248 Daniel H. Garruck cation is a continuation of Tong-term trends. Regions and areas have, in the past, experienced the loss of one industrial source of employ- ment and income and gained another source. With the increasing internationalization of the U.S. economy, however, the requirements for adjustment seem to be becoming more difficult, more diverse, and more wiclespread. Should policy be directed toward areas, industries, trade, or persons? The shifting patterns and longer term trends shown in the 25- year time span included in this study are part and parcel of an even longer history of labor reallocation. Ehrenhalt (1986) calls attention to the milestone reached in the first decade of this century when the number of blue-collar workers first exceeded the number of farmers; now, in the ninth decade of the century, the number of professional, technical, and managerial workers is fast approaching the point at which it will exceed the number of blue-collar workers. In 1929, the first year for which BEA prepared estimates, the number of persons engaged (full time-equivalent employment and self-employment) in goods-producing industries and the number en- gaged in service-producing industries were approximately equal. By 1985, the most recent year for which estimates have been prepared, goods-producing industries accounted for only 28 percent of persons engaged in production; service-producing industries accounted for the other 72 percent. Over this more than Midyear time span, the number of persons engaged in production more than doubled, from 45.66 million to 102.96 million, and both population settlement and industrial location patterns across America underwent vast changes. From 1929 through 1936 the number of persons (excluding un- paid family members) engaged in farming held steady at about 8.3 million. By 1947 the number had fallen to 6.4 million, and it fell fur- ther during the next two decades to 2.8 million by 1969. Throughout the 1970s the number of persons engaged in farming declined at a much reduced rate, falling to 2.5 million by 1979; the rate of decline reaccelerated in the 1980s, however, and by 1985 there were only 2.1 million persons engaged in farming. Further decreases appear to be in the offing owing to rising world production. The agricultural revolution has spread to densely populated countries that formerly were net importers of farm products. Continued subsidies to farm- ers in industrially advanced countries are increasingly less effective in maintaining farm population and increasingly more burdensome on national government budgets. Areas experiencing falling employ-
LOCAL AREA ECONOMIC GRO WTH PATTERNS . 249 ment in agriculture would like to see policies that would protect farmers against competing imports and that would promote exports. Yet the net effect of such policies is that they raise prices and in- voke trade wars that disadvantage trade in the products of other industries. Mining, another major goods-producing industry located mainly in rural areas, has had a somewhat more checkered pattern in terms of persons engaged in production. In 1929 more than 1 million persons were engaged in mining production. The number fluctuated somewhat during the Depression and post-WorId War IT years but then began a steep decline in the 1950s, falling to 625,000 by 1972. With the fossil fuel price explosion, mining employment began to rise, and with the second oil price "shock," it reached 1.6 million in 1981. But it then fell slowly to 926,000 in 1985 and since then has fallen much further, with the steep slide in world oil prices and the sympathetic movement of competing fuel prices. Mining employment exhibits a somewhat different pattern than farm employment, which has continued to fall over the last 50 years, albeit at a different rate. The different pattern of employment can be explained in part by the different patterns of productivity change in the two industries, which are so important to the fortunes of non- MSAs. Table 15 shows real gross national product (GNP) by industry for selected years from 1947-1985, the first and most recent years for which BEA has prepared these estimates; Table 16 shows persons engaged in production by industry. In these tables, the industry detail is given at the major division level. Farming is included in agriculture, and in 1985 farm employment accounted for 71 percent of agricultural employment, which also includes agricultural services, forestry, and fisheries all industries that tend to concentrate in non-MSAs. In 1947 farm employment accounted for 96 percent of agricultural employment. Table 17 shows the ratio of real GNP by industry to the num- ber of persons engaged in production in each industrya measure of labor productivity. As can be seen in the table, productivity in agriculture rose over the entire period, but mining productivity fell sharply in the 1970s. Mining output growth was not commensu- rate with employment growth, but internationally determined rising product prices were more than enough to offset the rising wage bill. Falling prices will have the opposite effect. Areas experiencing falling employment in mining would like to see mining product prices kept
250 Daniel H. Garruck TABLE 15 Gross National Product (GNP) (in millions of 1982 dollars) by Industry, for Selected Years Industry 1947 1959 1969 1979 1985 Total GNP 1,066.8 1,629.1 2,423.3 3,192.3 3,585.3 Goods-producing sector 426.0 658.3 914.5 1,076.7 1162.8 Agriculture 55.6 65.8 65.3 76.1 92.2 Mining 67.6 94.1 128.9 130.0 130.6 Construction 76.7 160.4 183.6 173.5 163.1 Manufacturing 226.1 338.0 536.7 697.1 776.9 Service-producing sector 641.7 976.4 1,504.0 2,070.3 2,389.4 Transportation 100.0 123.5 200.3 293.4 323.3 Wholesale trade 54.6 89.2 149.0 217.3 264.5 Retail trade 103.2 151.5 212.7 294.4 339.8 Finance, insurance, and real estate 103.0 195.9 314.0 459.2 523.9 Services 124.7 183.5 287.8 429.8 538.5 Government 156.2 232.8 340.2 376.2 399.4 1947 1959 1969 1979 1985 Total GNP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Goods-producing sector 39.9 40.4 37.7 33.7 32.4 Agriculture 5.2 4.0 2.7 2.4 2.6 Mining 6.3 5.8 5.3 4.1 3.6 Construction 7.2 9.8 7.6 5.4 4.5 Manufacturing 21.2 20.7 22.1 21.8 21.7 Service-producing sector 60.1 59.6 62.3 66.3 65.6 Transportation 9.4 7.6 8.S 9.2 9.0 Wholesale trade 5.1 5.5 6.1 6.8 7.4 Retail trade 9.7 9.3 8.8 9.2 9.5 Finance, insurance, and real estate 9.7 12.0 13.0 14.4 14.6 Services 11.7 11.3 11.9 13.5 15.0 Government 14.6 14.3 14.0 11.8 11.1 high through the use of tariffs imposed on competing imports, a policy that could invoke countermoves from countries that export mining products. Manufacturing employment rose relatively continuously over the period, although at clecTining rates of increase in the late 1960s and 1970s. The same is true of manufacturing productivity. In the 1980s,
LOCAL AREA ECONOMIC GRO WTH PATTERNS 251 employment has fallen but productivity growth has begun to rise from $33,000 in real GNP per worker to $40,000 per worker. The in- crease in productivity growth, all other things being equal, would be expected to enhance U.S. competitiveness in world markets. Areas experiencing falling employment in manufacturing industries, how- TABLE 16 Persons Engaged in Production (in thousands) by Industrya and as a Percentage of the Total Number of Persons Engaged in Production, for Selected Years Industry 1947 1959 1969 1979 1985 Total persons engaged in production 57,320 63,965 78,853 95,502 102,957 Goods-producing sector 26,028 25,350 28,132 30,674 28,922 Agriculture 6,657 4,704 3,193 3,161 2,960 Mining 968 742 626 957 926 Construction 3,007 3,533 4,256 5,607 5,823 Manufacturing 15,396 16,371 20,057 20,949 19,213 Service-producing sector 31,292 38,615 50,721 64,828 74,035 Transportation 4,231 4,083 4,488 5,166 5,301 Wholesale trade 2,620 3,351 4,041 5,339 5,814 Retail trade 8,376 8,911 10,596 14,086 15,930 Finance, insurance, and real estate 1,864 2,668 3,653 5,305 6,370 Services 7,444 9,430 13,313 18,849 23,879 Government 6,762 10,306 14,652 16,106 16,765 Rest of world -5 -134 -22 -23 -24 1947 1959 1969 1979 1985 Persons engaged in production (id) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Goods-producing sector 45.4 39.6 35.7 32.1 28.1 Agriculture 11.6 7.4 4.0 3.3 2.9 Mining 1.7 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.9 Construction 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.9 5.7 Manufacturing 26.9 25.6 25.4 21.9 18.7 Service-producing sector 54.6 60.4 64.3 67.9 71.9 Transportation 7.4 6.4 5.7 5.4 5.1 Wholesale trade 4.6 5.2 5.1 5.6 5.6 Retail trade 14.6 13.9 13.4 14.7 15.5 Finance, insurance, and real estate 3.3 4.2 4.6 5.6 6.2 Services 13.0 14.7 16.9 19.7 23.2 Government 11.8 16.1 18.6 16.9 16.5 Rest of world -0.0 -0.2 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 aPersons engaged in production equals the number of full time-equi~ralent employees plus the number of self-employed persons. Unpaid family workers are not included.
252 TABLE 17 Ratio of Gross National Product (GNP) to Persons Engaged in Productiona (in thousands of 1982 dollars), by Industry, for Selected Years Daniel H. Garruck Industry 1947 1959 1969 1979 1985 Total GNP Goods-producing sector Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing Ser~rice-producing sector Transportation Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Services G overnment 18,610 25,469 16,367 25,968 8,352 13,968 69,835 126,819 25,507 45,401 14,686 20,646 20,478 25,140 23,635 30,247 20,840 26,619 12,321 17,001 55,258 16,752 23,100 30,732 33,428 34,822 32,508 35,101 40,205 20,451 24,075 31,149 205,911 135,841 141,037 43,139 30,943 28,010 26,759 33,276 40,436 29,747 32,634 32,720 44,630 56,794 60,988 36,872 40,701 45,494 20,074 20,900 21,331 73,426 85,957 19,459 21,618 22,589 23,219 86,560 22,802 23,358 82,245 22,551 23,823 aPersons engaged in production equals the number of full time equivalent employees plus the number of self-employed persons. Unpaid family workers are not included. ever, would like to see these industries protected. Removing compe- tition could result in higher product prices and in countermoves by other countries that are adversely affected. The fortunes of these goods-producing industries in world mar- kets directly affect the fortunes of the areas in which the industries are located. Therefore, the question has been raised: Should there be an overall U.S. regional or urban policy, or a national industrial policy? Because regional and area growth patterns are influenced by a wide variety of economic policies, as suggested in the preced- ing paragraphs, it does not make sense to establish regional policies in isolation from other major areas of policy concern. Moreover, the complexity of the public and private forces affecting regional growth patterns is sufficiently great to cast doubt on the efficacy of fine-tuning regional policy. If policy is to be made, its objectives must be distinguished more clearly. In particular, is the objective in most cases to slow down the pace of change because of the high externality costs of rapid regional transformation? Or is the objective in most cases to facilitate change because of the high social costs associated with the failure to adjust rapidly to forces for change?
LOCAL AREA ECONOMIC GROWTH PATTERNS 253 There is also a need to match policy tools to policy objectives more effectively. For example, if the objective is primarily to facilitate change, general investments in human capital that increase individual mobility would seem appropriate. If the objective is primarily to mitigate the costs of "excessively rapid" change, direct payments to the persons affected may be more effective than policies directed specifically at particular government or industrial entities. The growth in services industries, particularly those producer services that tend to locate in major metropolitan areas, has increas- ingly taken up the stack in falling employment in the goods-producing industries in MSAs and non-MSAs alike. Advances in telecommu- nications technology permit "backroom" operations in producer ser- vices to locate at distances remote from face-t~face operations; thus local jurisdictions will be subject to competitive pressures, but this is not a question of national urban policy. Ehrenhalt (1986) notes that half of all professional, technical, and managerial jobs are currently held in the service-producing industries. These jobs require high levels of human capital investment. Policies geared to improved and enhanced training of people may well prove to be the most effective approach to improving the national urban situation. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ~ have relied on and benefited from the comments and statistical work of Daniel Zabronsky, who organized the data base for this study and constructed the detailed analytical tables, and Gary Kennedy's statistical work. As always, ~ have benefited from Vernon Renshaw's insightful comments in general and with particular respect to the c .lscusslon on policy issues. REFERENCES Ehrenhalt, S. M. 1986 Work-force shifts in the 80's. New York Times, August 15, 1986 p. D2. Garnick, D. H. 1978 Reappraising the Outlook for Northern States and Cities in the Con- text of U.S. Economic History. Working Paper No. 51. Joint Center for Urban Studies of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University. 1983 Shifting patterns in the growth of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. Survey of Current Business 63 (May) :39-44.
254 Daniel H. Garruck 1984 Shifting balances in U.S. metropolitan and nonmetropolitan area growth. International Regional Scienec Review 9~3) :2 57-2 73. 1985 Patterns of growth in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas: An update. Suruey of Current Bun 65(May):33-38. Regional Economic Measurement Division 1986 State personal income, 1969-1985: Revised estimates. Survey of Current Business 66(August):21-35.
