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TERRORISM

REDUCING VULNERABILITIES AND IMPROVING RESPONSES

U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings

Committee on Counterterrorism Challenges for Russia and the United States

Office for Central Europe and Eurasia Development, Security, and Cooperation Policy and Global Affairs

In cooperation with the Russian Academy of Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Terrorism: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Improving Responses - U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings TERRORISM REDUCING VULNERABILITIES AND IMPROVING RESPONSES U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings Committee on Counterterrorism Challenges for Russia and the United States Office for Central Europe and Eurasia Development, Security, and Cooperation Policy and Global Affairs In cooperation with the Russian Academy of Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Terrorism: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Improving Responses - U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Grant No. B7075.R01 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Carnegie Corporation of New York. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-08971-9 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-52590-X (PDF) Library of Congress Control Number 2004103935 A limited number of copies are available from the Office for Central Europe and Eurasia, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001; (202) 334-2644. Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2004 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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Terrorism: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Improving Responses - U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Terrorism: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Improving Responses - U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL COMMITTEE ON COUNTERTERRORISM CHALLENGES FOR RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES Siegfried S. Hecker, Senior Fellow and Former Director, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Chair Wm. A. Wulf, President, National Academy of Engineering Robert McC. Adams, Adjunct Professor, University of California at San Diego John F. Ahearne, Director, Ethics Program, Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society Lewis M. Branscomb, Professor Emeritus, Public Policy and Corporate Management, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University George Bugliarello, President Emeritus and University Professor, Polytechnic University Anita K. Jones, Lawrence R. Quarles Professor of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Virginia Alexander MacLachlan, Retired Senior Vice President, Research and Development, E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. Russ Zajtchuk, President, Chicago Hospitals International Staff Glenn E. Schweitzer, Program Director, National Research Council Kelly Robbins, Senior Program Officer, National Research Council A. Chelsea Sharber, Senior Program Associate, National Research Council

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Terrorism: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Improving Responses - U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES STANDING COMMITTEE ON COUNTERTERRORISM Academician Yevgeny Velikhov, Director, Kurchatov State Research Center of Atomic Energy, Chair RAS Corresponding Member Leonid Bolshov, Director, Russian Academy of Sciences Nuclear Safety Institute Academician Nikolai Laverov, Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences Academician Gennady Mesyats, Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences Academician Nikolai Platé, Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences Academician Aleksandr Spirin, Director, Russian Academy of Sciences Protein Institute Academician Konstantin Frolov, Director, Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Machine Science RAS Corresponding Member Valery Tishkov, Director, Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology Mr. Gennady Kovalenko, Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Renat S. Akchurin, Chief of the Cardiovascular Surgery Department, Cardiology Research Center Staff Yury K. Shiyan, Foreign Relations Department, Russian Academy of Sciences

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Terrorism: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Improving Responses - U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings Preface The first U.S.-Russian interacademy workshop on terrorism was held in Moscow in June 2001 with a focus on countering terrorist attacks that could cause catastrophic damage to civilian populations or to the economy or to both. In early 2002 the proceedings of that workshop were published in both English and Russian under the title High-Impact Terrorism Proceedings of a Russian-American Workshop. The events of September 11, 2001, greatly heightened interest within both the National Academies and the Russian Academy of Sciences in expanded cooperation in addressing the challenges of the growing threats of terrorism. Therefore, in December 2001, at the invitation of the National Academies, the Russian Academy of Sciences selected seven Russian specialists to travel to the United States for further discussions with National Academies counterparts and with government officials and other specialists in the United States on many aspects of high-impact terrorism. Based on the recommendations emerging from the discussions among representatives of the academies at that time, in February 2002 the academies agreed to establish parallel committees consisting primarily of academy members with extensive experience in addressing topics of direct relevance to terrorism to develop an expanded program of cooperation in counterterrorism. The charter for these committees, acting jointly, is set forth in Appendix B. The newly appointed committees decided to meet as soon as feasible to develop a broadened agenda for cooperation. The meeting was held in March 2003 after being postponed for three months because of delays associated with the seizure of hostages by dissidents during a stage production of Nord-Ost in Moscow in October 2002. In addition to the meeting of the joint committees, two one-day workshops on urban terrorism and cyberterrorism were held in Moscow

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Terrorism: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Improving Responses - U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings just before the meeting. The cochairs of the workshops summarized the workshop conclusions at the meeting. In addition, some members of the committees and a few invited specialists with important insights on terrorism threats and vulnerabilities in their respective countries made technical presentations on topics of special interest. These proceedings include articles based on technical presentations at the two workshops and on selected presentations during the meeting of the committees. Following the meeting, the Russian Academy of Sciences arranged consultations for the American participants with various Russian government ministries involved in counterterrorism activities (identified in Appendix A). Similar visits were made directly following the Moscow workshop in June 2001. Also, the National Academies arranged for the Russian specialists who visited in December 2001 to exchange views with representatives of U.S. government departments and agencies. These proceedings, together with the proceedings of the workshop in June 2001 and the related consultations with government ministries and agencies in both countries, provide a good basis for development of an agenda for sustained cooperation that should serve the interests of government officials and counterterrorism specialists. This agenda is currently in its formative stage. Six working groups were established by the joint committees to focus on urban terrorism, radiological terrorism, bioterrorism, cyberterrorism, the roots of terrorism, and the role of the nongovernmental sector, and they will help develop this agenda. We have not attempted to summarize the papers or the discussions in these proceedings. The presentations are sufficiently important that we decided to publish them in their entirety. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This publication was made possible by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not represent the positions of the Carnegie Corporation or the National Research Council, the Russian Academy of Sciences, or other organizations where the authors are employed. In addition to a review by committee members, this volume has been reviewed in draft form by several individuals chosen for their technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in ensuring that the report is as sound as possible and meets institutional standards for quality. The review comments and original draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of selected papers: Seymour Goodman, Georgia Institute of Technology; Michael Moodie,

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Terrorism: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Improving Responses - U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute; and Raphael Perl, Congressional Research Service. Although these reviewers have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the individual papers. Responsibility for the final content of the papers rests with the individual authors. Special thanks are extended to Kelly Robbins for her tireless translation of the Russian language papers into English and her editorial services. We also wish to thank Jan Dee Summers, Christopher Holt, and A. Chelsea Sharber for their work in editing these proceedings. Siegfried S. Hecker Chair, NRC Committee on Counterterrorism Challenges for Russia and the United States Glenn Schweitzer Director, Office for Central Europe and Eurasia

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Terrorism: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Improving Responses - U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings Contents URBAN TERRORISM         Analysis of the Threats and Consequences of Terrorist Acts in Urban Settings: Outline of a Protection System Vladimir Z. Dvorkin   3     Urban Security and September 11, 2001, in New York City: Projection of Threats onto a City as a Target and Measures to Avert Them or Minimize Their Impact George Bugliarello   15     Lessons Learned from the Nord-Ost Terrorist Attack in Moscow from the Standpoint of Russian Security and Law Enforcement Agencies Yevgeny A. Kolesnikov   26     Preventing Catastrophic Consequences of Bioterrorism in an Urban Setting Vladimir G. Ivkov and Yevgeny A. Permyakov   35     Toxic Chemicals and Explosive Materials: Terrorism-Related Issues for the Research Community, Chemical Industry, and Government Alexander MacLachlan   39     The Role of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs in Combating Terrorism in Urban Conditions Sergey A. Starostin   47     The Three R’s: Lessons Learned from September 11, 2001 Robert Prieto   58

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Terrorism: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Improving Responses - U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings     The Role of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations and Executive Branch Agencies of the City of Moscow in Dealing with Emergency Situations Arising from Acts of Terrorism Aleksandr M. Yeliseev   69 CYBERTERRORISM         A Perspective on Cybersecurity Research in the United States Wm. A. Wulf and Anita K. Jones   77     Analysis of the Threat of Cyberattacks to Major Transportation Control Systems in Russia Mikhail B. Ignatyev   85     Cyberattacks as an Amplifier in Terrorist Strategy Lewis M. Branscomb   93     Cybercrime and Cyberterrorism Mikhail P. Sychev   97     Protecting Bank Networks from Acts of Computer Terrorism Boris I. Skorodumov   104     Computer Security Training for Professional Specialists and Other Personnel Associated with Preventing and Responding to Computer Attacks Anatoly A. Malyuk, Nikolai S. Pogozhin, and Aleksey I. Tolstoy   112     Information Assurance Education in the United States Anita K. Jones   121     Technical Protection of Electronic Documents in Computer Systems Valery A. Konyavsky   125     Certain Aspects Regarding the Development of Conditions Favorable to Cyberterrorism and the Main Areas of Cooperation in the Struggle Against It Igor A. Sokolov and Vladimir I. Budzko   136 PAPERS PRESENTED TO THE NRC AND RAS COMMITTEES         Problems of Combating Terrorism and Possible Areas for Russian-American Scientific Cooperation to Resolve Them Valentin A. Sobolev   145     Making the Nation Safer: The Role of Science and Technology in Countering Terrorism—A Report of the U.S. National Academies Lewis M. Branscomb   149     International Aspects of Creating a State System for Countering Illegal Circulation of Radioactive Materials in the Russian Federation Vladimir M. Kutsenko   160

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Terrorism: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Improving Responses - U.S.-Russian Workshop Proceedings     Medical Aspects of Combating Acts of Bioterrorism Gennady G. Onishchenko   164     Roots of Terrorism Robert McC. Adams   168     The Department of Homeland Security: Background and Challenges Raphael Perl   176 APPENDIXES     A   Agendas for the Workshops on Urban and Cyberterrorism and the Meeting of the RAS and NRC Committees, March 2003   187 B   Annex 2 to the Agreement of Cooperation in Science, Engineering, and Medicine Between the Russian Academy of Sciences and the U.S. National Academies: Russian-American Cooperation in Counterterrorism   194 C   Comprehensive Training of Specialists to Counter Information Security Threats Nikolai V. Medvedev   196 D   Excerpts from “Bioterrorism: A National and Global Threat” Gennady G. Onishchenko   206 E   Biological Terrorism Russ Zajtchuk and David Franz   214 F   Top-Priority Problems for Scientific Research on the Information Security of the Russian Federation   222 G   Proposal for a Chem-Bio Attack Response Center (CBARC) for Chicago, Illinois, U.S., 2003 Russ Zajtchuk and Joe Petrovic   229

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