GORDON JAMES FRASER MACDONALD

July 30, 1929–May 14, 2002

BY WALTER MUNK, NAOMI ORESKES, AND RICHARD MULLER

GORDON WROTE EXTENSIVELY with force and conviction about his life and work; readers of these biographical memoirs will want to learn in his own words of his successes—and of his failures. This is not an exercise in hagiography; to suppress Gordon’s weaknesses would discredit his formidable strengths.

Following a discussion of Gordon’s early career in the 1950s, we have chosen to feature two major late twentieth-century issues in which Gordon played a significant role. The first issue, dealing with Gordon’s resistance to plate tectonics, is excerpted from “How Mobile Is the Earth?” It is excerpted from an essay he wrote shortly before his death.1 The second, dealing with Gordon’s policy work on weather modification and climate change, is excerpted from a set of articles he wrote between 1968 and 1988.2 We close with an account of his activities in the 1990s and an attempt to evaluate Gordon’s extraordinary accomplishments.

WALTER MUNK WRITING ON YOUNG GORDON

Gordon grew up in San Luis Potosi, Mexico. His father was among the many Scots who emigrated to Mexico; for some years he was an accountant with American Smelting and Refining Company. He met Gordon’s mother, an Ameri-



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GORDON JAMES FRASER MACDONALD July 30, 1929–May 14, 2002 BY WALTER MUNK, NAOMI ORESKES, AND RICHARD MULLER G with force and conviction about ORDON WROTE EXTENSIVELY his life and work; readers of these biographical mem- oirs will want to learn in his own words of his successes— and of his failures. This is not an exercise in hagiography; to suppress Gordon’s weaknesses would discredit his formi- dable strengths. Following a discussion of Gordon’s early career in the 1950s, we have chosen to feature two major late twentieth- century issues in which Gordon played a significant role. The first issue, dealing with Gordon’s resistance to plate tectonics, is excerpted from “How Mobile Is the Earth?” It is excerpted from an essay he wrote shortly before his death.1 The second, dealing with Gordon’s policy work on weather modification and climate change, is excerpted from a set of articles he wrote between 1968 and 1988.2 We close with an account of his activities in the 1990s and an attempt to evaluate Gordon’s extraordinary accomplishments. WALTER MUNK WRITING ON YOUNG GORDON Gordon grew up in San Luis Potosi, Mexico. His father was among the many Scots who emigrated to Mexico; for some years he was an accountant with American Smelting and Refining Company. He met Gordon’s mother, an Ameri- 225

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226 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS can, while she was working at the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City. As a child Gordon contracted polio, and spent the next 60 years trying to prove to everybody, himself included, that this was not a problem. Gordon’s application to Harvard for a football fellowship was a case in point. (He graduated summa cum laude at the age of 20.) Many years later President Nixon, when questioned about the intellect of his administration, replied, “I have three members of the Harvard class of 1950 on my staff, all summa cum laude.” They were Kissinger, Schlesinger, and MacDonald. After graduation Gordon was among the 20 privileged junior fellows (under Dean McGeorge Bundy, a previous fellow) who were supported to do anything they wished. Gordon spent some of his fellowship climbing in the Alps. On the island of Unst in the Shetlands he stumbled upon a great Arctic skua with a wingspread of 8 feet, and this con- verted him to bird watching, in fierce competition with Murray Gell-Mann. Gordon himself attributes his subsequent inter- est in water quality to his early experience in bird life. Gordon entered Harvard for a degree in chemical engi- neering, but he switched to geology as an undergraduate, and got his Ph.D. in geology at the age of 25. He then moved across town to an assistant professorship in geophysics at MIT. I met Gordon while he was a Harvard undergraduate. I was giving a seminar on the variable rotation of the Earth associated with a seasonal change in the high-altitude jet stream (just discovered), feeling reasonably secure that no one in the audience knew anything about this. A student in the first row interrupted with some rude comments about neglect of tides, variable ocean currents, and such like. Four years later I gave a much-improved account at MIT; there he was again in the front row, complaining that I had not answered his questions of four years ago.

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227 GORDON JAMES FRASER MACDONALD We decided to write a book together. The scope grew beyond bounds. To quote from the preface: “The diversity of the subject is appalling. It touches on every branch of geophysics. By the time it is covered, information will have been gained concerning wind and air masses, atmospheric, oceanic and bodily tides, sea level, rigidity and anelasticity of the Earth’s mantle, and motion in its core.” Quoting Gordon,1 “Walter and I had a mild debate on whether or not to include discussions of continental drift and polar wandering. I (GmacD) argued we should, so as to tweak the geologists into considering limitations on their wilder specu- lations. The final chapter of The Rotation of the Earth takes up the subject of the Earth’s mobility, as we under- stood it in 1960.” I was moved to learn from Naomi Oreskes, who interviewed Gordon on his views of plate tectonics, that Gordon considered his writing of Rotation of the Earth as the most satisfying experience in his scientific career. GORDON MACDONALD IN HIS OWN WORDS On Plate Tectonics.3 “In the 1950s, polar wandering and continental drift were controversial subjects, often leading to heated discussions between North American and Euro- pean geophysicists and geologists. . . . I started serious work on these topics in 1957, when Walter Munk and I began the research and writing for our book, The Rotation of the Earth. . . . The final chapter takes up the subject of the earth’s mobility, as we understood it in 1960.” “When I was an undergraduate at Harvard in the late 1940s, my professors ignored or dismissed (with ridicule) speculation that continents move relative to each other, the poles tip, and convection currents constantly stir the inte- rior of the earth. However, I was very much impressed in 1949 by reading Reginald Daly’s book, Our Mobile Earth.”

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228 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS “Whatever sympathy I had for Daly’s notion of conti- nental drift was overwhelmed by the work of two giants of 20th century geophysics, Cambridge Professor Sir Harold Jeffreys and Harvard Professor Francis Birch. . . . I found Jeffreys’ reasoning about the strength of the earth . . . to be convincing. . . . Elastic materials have what physicists call a ‘finite’ strength, which means that upon the application of a stress . . . they will deform a certain amount in proportion to that stress. But no matter how long the stress is applied the deformation is limited . . . Birch felt that his demonstra- tion of the homogeneity of the mantle in both the upper and lower regions ruled out large-scale convective motions . . . there would be no driving force for large-scale convection. Based on my readings of Jeffreys and my close interaction with Birch, I concluded that the earth indeed possessed a finite strength.” “In the early 1960s, new observations and interpreta- tions of the sea floor data led to the theory of plate tecton- ics. According to this theory, low-intensity long-term stresses drive the horizontal motion of the plates. I argued in two papers that the large-scale difference between continents and oceans . . . extended to several hundred miles’ depth . . . and that the mantle possesses a finite strength, as ar- gued by Harold Jeffreys. . . . My insistence that geophysical constraints must be discussed led many participants . . . to dismiss me as a troglodyte who was slowing the convergence of thought that was later to be labeled either as a revolu- tion or a paradigm shift.” “In all science there is a strong ‘herd instinct.’ Members of the herd find congeniality in interacting with other mem- bers who hold the same view of the world. . . . Before the 1950s, the North American herd of geologists found it com-

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229 GORDON JAMES FRASER MACDONALD forting and amusing to ridicule those foreign geologists who advocated continental drift. In the early 1960s . . . (several) respected leaders . . . decided to shift directions and the herd soon followed.” “The Royal Society sponsored (a meeting) March 19-20 1964. Teddy Bullard, a relatively late convert to drift, pre- sented what he regarded as proof that there was a precise fit between the two coasts of Africa and South America. . . . I once again argued for deep roots to continents and the difficulties these imposed on any drift scheme. Teddy Bullard, in a masterful putdown, responded ‘Many precedents sug- gest the un-wisdom of being too sure of conclusions based on supposed properties of imperfectly understood materi- als in inaccessible regions of the earth.’” “Although I maintained an interest in the structure of the earth’s interior, I had actually begun to disengage from the field of continental drift in 1962, when I was asked to chair a National Academy of Sciences Committee examin- ing weather modification.” On the Science and Politics of Rain Making.4 “Weather modification was one of many areas in which the federal government, through both its armed forces and its civilian agencies, was funding scientific research aimed at improv- ing our capacity to understand, control, and modify the environment. In 1961, I was appointed to the National Acad- emy of Sciences Committee on Atmospheric Sciences (1961- 1970) and the President’s Science Advisory Committee Panel on Atmospheric Sciences (1961-1964); three years later I was appointed to the National Science Foundation Advisory Panel for Weather Modification (1964-1967).”

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230 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS “Weather modification was a highly contested topic, dating back to the establishment in 1953 of the Congressional Ad- visory Committee on Weather Control. Throughout the 1940s and ‘50s, there had been considerable enthusiasm for weather modification projects. In the early 1940s, Irving Langmuir and Vincent Schaeffer, at the General Electric Company, demonstrated that clouds could be modified by seeding them with dry ice pellets; Bernard Vonnegut demonstrated that silver iodide could do the same (thus inspiring the ice-9 of his brother, Kurt’s, novels).” “Weather modification was taken up with enthusiasm by those who hoped to use it on behalf of matters ranging from warfare to world hunger. The 1953 advisory commit- tee was charged with evaluating the various government and private initiatives in cloud-seeding. In 1957 this com- mittee reported to President Eisenhower that ‘seeding of wintertime storm clouds in mountainous areas in the west- ern U.S. produced an average increase in precipitation of 10-15% from seeded storms, with heavy odds that the in- crease was not the result of natural variations in the amount of rainfall.’” “In 1963, the Committee of Atmospheric Sciences of the NAS appointed a Panel on Weather and Climate Modi- fication to ‘undertake a deliberate and thoughtful review of the present status of activities in this field and of its poten- tial and limitations for the future.’ The report was issued in 1966. The tone was cautious, but the conclusion positive: ‘There is increasing but somewhat ambiguous evidence that precipitation from some types of clouds and storm systems can be modestly increased or redistributed by seeding tech- niques.’ Statisticians attacked this conclusion. Alexander

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231 GORDON JAMES FRASER MACDONALD Brownlee of the University of Chicago, writing in the Journal of the American Statistical Association (June 1967) had the following closing: ‘That such nonsense should appear under the aegis of the National Academy of Sciences is deplor- able.’ My own conclusion, consistent with the panel report, was that there is no in-principle objection to the possibility of weather modification, and in some meteorological con- ditions, precipitation reaching the ground can be increased perhaps by a substantial amount by seeding.” “Over the next several years I became increasingly con- vinced that scientists should be more actively engaged in questions of environmental modification, and that the fed- eral government should have a more organized approach to the problem. While such research could take place in both the public and private sector, the government should take the lead in large-scale field experiments and monitor- ing, and in establishing appropriate legal frameworks for private initiatives.” On Environmental Sciences.5 “I felt that changes were needed within the scientific community. The environment was not merely important politically and socially, to my mind, it presented complex and intriguing scientific problems, which the scientific community might be enthusiastic to tackle. Yet they were not. Left to their own decisions, the scientific explorers will push those areas that are exciting or perhaps fashionable. In the past it has been far more acceptable and more praiseworthy to investigate the Earth’s deep interior than to puzzle over the problem of predict- ing earthquakes. In the past, questions of the origin and development of the atmosphere have proved far more attractive than investigations of atmospheric pollution.”

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232 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS “Scientists in the 1960s were generally reluctant to take on society’s problems or to allow for the idea that their research should be directed from without. To do so, they felt, would threaten the purity of scientific research. The widely held views of the time were typified by Michael Polanyi, who wrote, ‘The pursuit of science can be organized . . . in no other manner than by granting complete independence to all mature scientists. The function of public authority is not to plan research but only to provide the opportunities for its pursuit.’ My own view was different: I believed the scientific community needed to find a balance between the pressures from within and without, advancing basic knowl- edge and translating those advances into tools for society.” “My experiences with weather modification convinced me that the topic could not be isolated from other develop- ments in atmospheric sciences, and indeed, environmental sciences as a whole. The uncertainty over weather modifica- tion illustrated our lack of basic scientific understanding in many areas of environmental sciences. Our ability to modify the atmosphere depends on our proficiency in describing and predicting its behavior. Indeed, it would be both inef- fective and perhaps unsafe to attempt weather modification in the absence of the capacity to predict the consequences of such activities in some detail. I proposed at the time that the federal government establish a new agency whose task was to promote and foster research and development in environmental prediction and modification—not just of the atmosphere, but also the oceans and the solid earth. While the agency I envisaged did not come to pass, some of these considerations were addressed when I served on the President ’ s Science Advisory Committee (PSAC) under Lyndon Johnson (1964-68), and again when I served on the

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233 GORDON JAMES FRASER MACDONALD newly established Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) under Richard Nixon (1970-72).” “A critical event in this period was the Santa Barbara oil spill, just two weeks after Richard Nixon’s inauguration. Television media covered the blow-out and the impacts on the birds and sea life on an hour-by-hour basis. The admin- istration faced its first real crisis by quickly appointing a small group of scientists and engineers to recommend solu- tions. I was a member of that group. At the time, I was Vice Chancellor of the University of California, Santa Barbara, and a holdover member of President Johnson’s Science Advisory Committee (PSAC). I quickly flew to Los Angeles to meet the President. In order to demonstrate to the pub- lic that all was well, the President was to walk along the beach, with coverage by TV photographers who would be backing up. I was to be on Nixon’s right, and on his left, Fred Hartley, president of Union Oil Company. As the cho- reographed walk proceeded, Hartley continually asserted that there had been no damage. He also emphasized that there really was no oil on the beach. Upset at Hartley’s statements, I contradicted him, stating that the tide came in, the tide went out, and each time the tide came in it deposited a layer of oil. Impulsively, I kicked at the sand, sending an oily glob of sand onto a highly strategic area of the President’s trousers.” “With this incident, ‘environment’ became a central is- sue of American politics for the next decade. Two of the principal accomplishments of this period were the passage of NEPA—the National Environmental Policy Act—and the establishment of the Environmental Protection Agency. This turned out be the most important work I did in the politi-

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234 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS cal domain, an example of how scientists being involved in politics does make a difference.” “At the time, NEPA’s critics said it was vague and incon- clusive. Yet with its clear statement of intent—that it be the policy of the federal government to ‘use all practicable means and measures . . . to create and maintain conditions under which man and nature can exist in productive harmony and . . . [meet] the needs of the present without compro- mising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs,’ NEPA anticipated the concept of sustainable devel- opment.” “The establishment of the Environmental Protection Agency is another example. CEQ played a major role in this. The framework of laws that today give the federal gov- ernment authority to protect the environment all came out of the work carried out by the CEQ between 1970 and 1972. But by late 1972, the shadow of Watergate had crept over the White House, and I resigned.” “People don’t generally think of Richard Nixon as hav- ing been a great environmentalist, but he was a very astute politician and he knew that environmentalism was going to be a big issue in the 1972 election. So he wanted to do something about it, to have something tangible to point to, and he took the advice of his scientific advisors (at least in this instance). EPA and NEPA were the result. I was very proud of this work.” “My work on the CEQ convinced me that environmental problems had to be addressed from multiple angles and required discourses between the environmental scientist, the economist, the lawyer, and the sociologist. We needed

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235 GORDON JAMES FRASER MACDONALD to develop overall strategies and policies for dealing with the whole problem of the environment. These conclusions motivated me in 1972 to become the first director of the Environmental Studies Program at Dartmouth College. The principal mission of this program was to provide an oppor- tunity for undergraduates to assess the seriousness and com- plexity of environmental problems and to understand how these problems can be solved.” On the Segue from Weather Modification to Climate Change 6 “Why was I optimistic about weather modifica- Change. tion, when so many others were skeptical? I considered my optimism justified on three grounds. 1) The basic under- standing of the physical processes of the atmosphere had been achieved. The atmosphere was complex, but not mys- terious. 2) High speed computers were making it possible to model atmospheric processes, including the effects of cloud-seeding experiments, and 3) A new array of instru- ments, particularly satellites, was making it possible to ob- serve and detect atmospheric changes. Satellites in particu- lar would soon make global coverage possible. It seemed to me that the nonscientific aspects of weather modification— political, economic, sociological—would prove far more dif- ficult than the scientific ones. At the same time, I also be- came an advocate for increasing our basic understanding of the environment through the growth of environmental science.” “Perhaps more important, I became convinced that in- advertent weather modification was already occurring. Like many earth scientists, my initial concern was the opposite of what concerns us today: global cooling. In a 1970 lecture to the Industrial College of the Armed Forces, I said: ‘Apart from changing the character of the air, the vast quantities

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240 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS a major follow-up effort that we did over the next eight years. In “Glacial Cycles and Astronomical Forcing” (1997) we extended Gordon’s 1993 insight: that the narrow 100 kiloyear peak was prima facie evidence that the cycles of the ice ages were driven by orbital forcing and were not the result of internal changes in the earth or the sun. Our book Ice Ages and Their Astronomical Causes (2000) had two goals: to explain in detail all of the aspects of paleoclimate that we had uncovered and to prepare a primer for proper sta- tistical analysis of such data. In 1990 Gordon left his job with the Mitre Corporation and returned to academia. His passion had evolved over the decades from pure science to the use of science to address world issues. Rather than take a job in geophysics he accepted a position as a professor of international rela- tions in the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego. He also served as the research director for international environmental policy at the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation on the same campus. He continued as a member of the Board of Directors for the Environmental Research Institute of Michigan and as one of the most ac- tive participants in JASON, with much of his effort directed toward environmental issues—which he considered to be central to U.S. national security. His academic research was largely directed toward climate—including some mysteri- ous behavior in the radiation balance of clouds—and work in frozen deep-ocean methane deposits known as clathrates. He argued that they probably played an important role in paleoclimate, since their existence was potentially unstable to changes in temperature and sea level. The role of clath- rates is still largely mysterious, but Gordon is recognized as one of the first people to draw attention to them.

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241 GORDON JAMES FRASER MACDONALD Gordon loved the environment at San Diego, but he was not happy with his administrative burdens. He had little help and had to spend much of his own effort organizing visitors and meetings. Those duties limited his ability to teach, to study, and to continue his environmental investi- gations; so he resigned. Then in a strange twist he accepted a job with far greater administrative burden but one that had potentially greater impact on world affairs: director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) at Laxenburg, on the outskirts of Vienna, Austria. He saw this institute as an organization that could exert important influence on its member countries. IIASA was in serious financial difficulties, and Gordon applied his incredible intuition about the stock market to the institute’s portfolio, outperformed the professional in- vestors, and greatly enhanced the institution’s finances. He worked hard to expand membership in IIASA, and man- aged to get Norway to join. He hoped other countries would follow. He upgraded the mathematical standards of the in- stitute, insisting on rigorous statistical methods. He refused to reappoint people whom he considered to be “dead wood,” but this made enemies, leading to an acrimonious parting with the institute’s Governing Council. CONCLUDING THOUGHTS The book on Gordon is yet to be written. We recall his academic career, from chemical engineering and geology at Harvard (his summa cum laude was the first in the de- partment), to an assistant/associate professorship in geol- ogy and geophysics at MIT, to a full professorship (at the age of 29) at the Institute of Geophysics at the University of California, Los Angeles, to a professorship in physics and geophysics at the University of California, Santa Barbara, to the chair in environmental studies and policy at Dartmouth,

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242 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS to the Institute of Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC) at the University of California, San Diego, to the director- ship of the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA). Interspersed is a one-year residence at NASA and seven years as vice-president and chief scientist with the MITRE Corporation. Add to this his many, many services on national and international committees, and the enu- meration alone would fill the allotted pages of this bio- graphical memoir. Gordon was elected to the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1962 at the age of 32! We have chosen to emphasize two major late twentieth- century issues in which Gordon played a significant role: plate tectonics and climate. On plate tectonics, in the long run Gordon’s opposition to Earth mobility turned out to be in error; he based his reasoning on a model Earth of finite strength rather than the high-temperature creep of nearly (or partially) molten material. In any event he chose not to be one of the late jumpers on the bandwagon. Perhaps he was just stubborn. But Gordon was not alone; he was joined by other distinguished geophysicists, such as Maurice Ewing and Harold Jeffreys (as well as by various aging directors of Soviet geology institutes). On weather and climate modification Gordon was one of the earliest scientists to call attention to carbon dioxide as a specific problem, to push forward the scientific under- standing of the likely impacts of increased atmospheric CO2, and to bridge the science policy divide. A final word needs to be said on Gordon’s contribu- tions to national defense and intelligence issues. Gordon served on JASON for 37 years; during the Vietnam War he chaired a JASON committee on designing the “McNamara Fence” (an instrumented frontline for preventing enemy intrusion into South Vietnamese territory), probably the

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243 GORDON JAMES FRASER MACDONALD earliest version of the instrumented battlefield. Gordon was passionate about JASON, where he brought his formidable intellect to bear on an enormous diversity of problems. He always spoke his mind, driven by his insatiable curiosity in a multitude of fields and his ability to convey the excitement of the research endeavor to scientists and lay people, to politicians and bureaucrats. Gordon chaired the MEDEA Committee (initially the Environmental Task Force) of the Central Intelligence Agency, a brainchild of Senator (later Vice-President) Gore for the application of “overhead assets,” that is, informa- tion collected by intelligence satellites, to the solution of environmental problems. Here the intelligence and academic communities, two disparate communities meeting initially under conditions of mutual mistrust, developed over the years a feeling of trust and respect. Gordon was at his best, combining his unique environmental background with pa- tience and perseverance. In 1994 the CIA presented Gor- don with the Seal Medallion, the highest civilian honor of the agency. In the early 1990s after leaving MITRE and having changed his interests and residence so often, he found himself without a stable home base. Neither the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies of the Uni- versity of California, San Diego, nor the Governing Council of IIASA, nor his body now weakened by childhood polio, could accommodate to his singular style of work and living. He was reluctant to use a walker or wheelchair, and Austria was not friendly to his developing handicaps. It became yet another burden on his energy, and that of his wife, Marga- ret. Upon his return to the United States from Vienna Gor- don took up residence in Cambridge, Massachusetts, but without formal association with any of the institutes or de- partments he had helped to develop, or indeed had founded. .

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244 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS We remember Gordon for his warm friendship, insa- tiable curiosity, and powerful intellect. He was an inspira- tion to his students and to all who knew him. He was never dull. In the words of Freeman Dyson, “It is bad for the world that Gordon’s informed and critical voice is silent.” Gordon is survived by his wife, Margaret Stone MacDonald, three sons, one daughter, and five grandchildren. NOTES 1. G. J. MacDonald. How mobile is the Earth? In Plate Tectonics: An Insider’s History of the Modern Theory of the Earth, ed. N. Oreskes with H. Le Grand, pp. 111-27. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 2001. 2. Most of the prose in this section is taken directly from Gordon’s articles (with minor editorial modifications or in a few cases sen- tences added to clarify points based on e-mail communications in the autumn of 2001) and my conversation with Gordon at his home in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on October 17, 2001. 3. These are short selected quotes from “How mobile is the Earth” in Plate Tectonics: An Insider’s History of the Modern Theory of the Earth, ed. N. Oreskes with H. Le Grand. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 2001. According to Margaret McDonald, this was Gordon’s last serious writing. 4. Excerpted primarily from G. J. F. Macdonald. Science and politics of rainmaking. Bull. At. Sci. 4(1968):8-14, with additional materials based on Weather and Climate Modification, Report of the Panel on Weather and Climate Modification of the National Acad- emy of Sciences, pub. no. 1350 NAS./NRC, Washington, D.C., 1966; MacDonald. How to wreck the environment. New Sci. 25(Apr. 1968):180- 82; and MacDonald. Weather modification as a weapon. Technol. Rev. 78(1975):56-63. 5. Excerpted from MacDonald, 1965. Environmental sciences— problems and prospects. Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 46(2):373-76, 1965; G. J. F. MacDonald. Environment: The evolution of a con- cept. In Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow: The Harvard Class of 1950 Reflects on the Past and Looks to the Future. Arlington, Mass.: Travers Press, 2000; G. J. MacDonald. Environmental studies program: Dartmouth College. Chemosphere 5(1977):185-205; and conversation with Naomi Oreskes, Cambridge, Massachusetts, October 17, 2001.

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245 GORDON JAMES FRASER MACDONALD 6. This section is compiled from several of MacDonald’s exten- sive writings on climate change from the late 1960s onward. These include: Science and politics of rainmaking. Bull. At. Sci. 4(1968):8-14; Weather modification. Sci. J. 4(1968):39-44; Our beleaguered environ- ment. In Perspectives in Defense Management, autumn 1971, pp. 11-20; How to wreck the environment. New Sci. 25(Apr. 1968):180-82; Caring for our planet: How man endangers the planet. Current 114(1970):17-24; Climatic consequences of increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In Power Generation and Environmental Change, ed. David Berkowitz and Arthur Squires, pp. 246-62. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1971; Pollution, weather and climate. In Environment: Resources, Pollution, and Society, 1st ed., ed. W. W. Murdoch, pp. 326-36. Stamford, Conn.: Sinauer Associates, 1971; The long-term impacts of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. JASON Technical Report JSR-78-07 and JSR 789-04. Arlington, Va.: SRI International, 1982; Scientific basis for the greenhouse effect. J. Policy Anal. Manage. 7(3)(1988):425- 44.

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246 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY 1953 Anhydrite-gypsum equilibrium relations. Am. J. Sci. 251:884-98. 1956 Quartz-coesite stability relations at high temperatures and pressures. Am. J. Sci. 254:713-21. 1958 With L. Knopoff. The magnetic field and the central core of the earth. Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 1:216-23. With L. Knopoff. On the chemical composition of the outer core. Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 1:284-97. 1959 Calculations on the thermal history of the earth. J. Geophys. Res. 64:1967-2000. 1960 With W. H. Munk. Rotation of the Earth, a Geophysical Discussion. Mono- graph in Applied Mathematics and Mechanics. New York: Cam- bridge University Press. With F. Gilbert. Free oscillations of the earth. 1. Toroidal oscilla- tions. J. Geophys. Res. 65:675-93. Stress history of the moon. J. Planet. Space Sci. 2:249-55. 1961 Interior of the moon. Science 133:1015-50. With N. F. Ness. A study of the free oscillations of the earth. J. Geophys. Res. 66:1865-1911. 1963 With K. Hasselmann and W. H. Munk. Bispectra of ocean waves. In Time Series Analysis, ed. M. Rosenblatt, pp. 125-39. New York: Wiley and Sons. The internal constitutions of the inner planets and the moon. Space Sci. Rev. 2:473-557.

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247 GORDON JAMES FRASER MACDONALD With W. H. K. Lee. The global variation of terrestrial heat flow. J. Geophys. Res. 68:6481-92. 1964 The structure and strength of the inner planets, space exploration and the Solar System. Rendiconti della Scuola Internazionale d. Fisica, E. Fermi, XXIV Corso, pp. 60-141, Academic Press. 1965 Origin of the moon: Dynamical considerations. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 118:739-82. Continental structure and drift. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. 258:215-27. 1968 Science and politics of rainmaking. Bull. At. Sci. 24:8-14. 1975 Weather modification as a weapon of war. Technol. Rev. 78:56-63. Intentional and unintentional modification of the atmosphere. In Organizing for Global Environmental and Resource Interdependence. Report by the Commission on the Organization of the Govern- ment for the Conduct of Foreign Policy, June. 1982 Ed. The Long-Term Impacts of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger. 1990 Global climate change. In Global Climate and Ecosystem Change, ed. G. J. MacDonald and L. N. Sertorio, pp. 1-96. New York: Plenum. 1997 With R. A. Muller. Glacial cycles and astronomical forcing. Science. 27:215-18. 2000 Environment—the evolution of a concept. In Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow—The Harvard Class of 1950 Reflects on the Past and Looks to the Future, ed. G. S. Mumford. Arlington, Mass.: Travers Press.

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248 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS With R. A. Muller. Ice Ages and Astronomical Causes: Data, Spectral Analysis and Mechanisms. New York: Springer. 2001 How mobile is the earth? In Plate Tectonics: An Insider’s History of the Modern Theory of the Earth, ed. N. Oreskes, pp. 11-27. Boulder, Colo.: Westview.

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P hoto by Karsh, Ottawa