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NUCLEAR ARMS- CONTROt BACKGROUND AND ISSUES Committee on International Security and Arms Control National Academy of Sciences NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D. C. 1985

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 CONSTITUTION AVENUE, N.W. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by Act of Congress as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation for the furtherance of science and technology for the general welfare. The Committee on International Security and Arms Control is a committee of the National Academy of Sciences. This work was supported by special grants from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and by grants from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Charles E. Culpeper Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the Richard Lounsbery Foundation. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 84-62287 International Standard Book Number 0-309-03491-4 (: opyright ~ 1985 by the National Academy of Sciences No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic, or elec- tronic process, or in the form of phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval system, transmitted, or otherwise copied for public or private use, without written permission from the publisher, except for the purposes of official use by the United States Government. Printed in the United States of America First Printing, December 1984 Second Printing, January 1988 Third Printing, March 1988

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Contents Committee on International Security and Arms Control . Foreword Frank Press Preface Marvin L. Goldberger Overview Arms Control as a Process, 2 The Objectives of Arms Control, 4 Approaches to Arms Control, 6 The U.S.-Soviet Strategic Relationship, 11 Other Nuclear Powers, 15 Verification, 17 Record of Compliance, 18 Political or Military "Linkage", 19 The Negotiating Process, 20 Domestic Political Acceptability, 22 Specific Proposals, 22 . vet . vie . ax 2 Strategic Offensive Nuclear Arms Control . PART I: THE STRATEGIC ARMS LIMITATION TALKS (SALT) . Introduction, 24 Background, 25 . . . 24 24

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1V The Provisions of SALT ~ and SALT IT, 32 The Main Issues Surrounding SALT II, 35 PART IT: THE STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TALKS (START) . Background, 58 U.S. and Soviet START Proposals, 65 The Main Issues Surrounding START, 67 3 The Nuclear Freeze . Introduction, 81 Background, 81 Description of the Comprehensive Nuclear Freeze Proposal, 88 The Main Issues Surrounding the Comprehensive Nuclear Freeze, 90 4 The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force (INF) Negotiations . Introduction, 107 Background, 108 Summary of the U.S. and Soviet INF Positions as of November 1983,121 The Main Issues Surrounding the INF Negotiations, 123 6 Strategic Defensive Arms Control: The SALT Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty . Introduction, 136 Background, 136 Provisions of the SALT ~ ABM Treaty, 148 The Main Issues Surrounding the SALT ~ ABM Treaty, 149 6 Anti- S atellite (A SAT) Arms C o ntro! Background, 160 Summary of U.S. and Soviet Positions on ASAT Arms Control, 171 The Main Issues Surrounding Anti-Satellite Arms Control, 173 CONTENTS 58 81 . 107 . 136 . 159

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CONTENTS 7 Nuclear Test Bans Introduction, 187 Background, 187 The Main Issues Surrounding a Comprehensive Test Ban, 204 Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons . Introduction, 224 The Nature of the Risk, 226 The History of Non-Proliferation, 233 Nuclear Export Policy, 237 The Role of International Non-Proliferation Agreements, 242 The Adequacy and Sufficiency of International Safeguards, 251 Holdouts from the International Regime, 265 Acronyms . Appendix A Appendix B Appendix C Appendix D Appendix E Appendix F Appendix G Index . v . 187 . 224 SALT ~ Interim Agreement on Strategic Offensive Arms . SALT I! Treaty . SALT ~ ABM Treaty . [Limited Test Ban Treaty . ThreshoIc! Test Ban Treaty . Peaceful Nuclear Explosions Treaty Non-Proliferation Treaty . . . - 275 279 289 323 335 339 345 363 369

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Committee on International Security and Arms Control MARVIN L. Go~DsERGER, President, California Institute of Technology, Chairman LEW ALLEN, dR., Director, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology PAUL M. DOTY, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, and Director, Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University HERMAN FESHBACH, Institute Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and President, American Academy of Arts and Sciences A~ExANDER H. Fax, President Emeritus, Institute for Defense Analysis RICHARD L. GARWIN, Science Advisor to the Director of Research, Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM Corporation DAVID A. HAMBURG, President, Carnegie Corporation of New York SPURGEON M. KEENY, JR., Scholar-in-Residence, National Academy of Sciences JOSHUA LEDERsERG' President, Rockefeller University* RICHARD A. MULLER, Department of Physics, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, University of California WOLFGANG K. H. PANOFSKY, Director, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University JACK P. RUINA, Department of Electrical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN D. STEINBRUNER, Director, Foreign Policy Studies Program, Brookings Institution CHARLES H. TOWNES, University Professor of Physics, University of California JEROME B. WIESNER, Institute Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology WALTER A. ROSENBLITH, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences, ex officio TORI A. ESPOSITO (through July 1984), Professional Associate LYNN F. RUSTEN (from August 1984), Staff Associate ~ Joined committee too late to participate in preparation of this book. V1

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Foreword The advent of the nuclear age after World War II profoundly changed the nature of warfare and the strategic relationship of the superpowers. The scientific developments that produced this revolution in warfare also created a new, special relationship between the scien- tific community and the government. Scientists were not only partners in the rapid evolution of military technology but were also major partic- ipants in the formulation of military and foreign policy reflecting the new technology. Conscious of the terrible consequences of nuclear war, scientists played a central role in developing approaches to control nu- clear weapons and reduce the likelihood that they would ever be used. Over the years many U.S. scientists have served in important govern- ment positions and as influential advisors on these matters. In this tradition the National Academy of Sciences has an important role to play. It has undertaken many studies relating to matters of national security, and currently several committees of the National Research Council advise branches of the military on questions of scien- tific research. One committee of experts is evaluating the impact of a major nuclear war on the earth's atmosphere and climate. Another is advising the government on issues related to scientific communication and national security. The Committee on International Security and Arms Control reflects the Academy's deep interest in international security and the potential of arms control to reduce the threat of nuclear war. ~ believe this is as expert a group of individuals as one could assemble to consider these critical problems. Its members have been deeply involved in many as- e V11

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viii FOREWORD pects of military technology and arms control. They have advised sev- eral presidents and served in senior governmental posts; they have been involved in military research since the days of the Manhattan Project; they have headed universities and research centers; they have been involved with important arms control negotiations. The members of this committee have thought Tong and hard about these issues. The committee has pursued a number of activities in response to its broad charter. Twice each year it has met with its counterparts from the Soviet Academy of Sciences to explore problems of international secu- rity and arms control. In response to the widely expressed interest of members of our Academy in learning more about issues and opportuni- ties in arms control, it has also served an important educational role, holding a number of meetings and sessions on arms control for the Academy's membership. This educational role culminated in the spring of 1984 in a major tutorial that brought together over 200 Academy members for two days of meetings and discussions prior to the Acad- emy's annual meeting. The response to the background materials prepared for the tutorial was so positive that ~ asked that they be expanded and refined for a broader audience. ~ believe that the result is a unique volume timely, comprehensive, authoritative. It thoroughly describes the history and status of the arms control debate. At the same time, it presents a wide diversity of views on the underlying issues in a nontechnical, nonparti- san fashion. ~ believe that it will prove to be a valuable resource for our national leaders, for students and researchers, and for the growing number of people who are concerned about this issue of vital importance to our future. Frank Press President National Academy of Sciences

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Preface There is no more important challenge in our time than how to prevent the unprecedented catastrophe of nuclear war. But despite al- most universal agreement on the overriding imperative of averting such a disaster, there are fundamental differences between the United States and the Soviet Union and between groups within our own coun- try on how best to accomplish this goal. In particular, serious observers differ strongly over the appropriate role for arms control in this process and over the formulation of specific approaches to arms control. The Committee on International Security and Arms Control was cre- ated by the National Academy of Sciences in 1980 to study these issues and to advance understanding of them both in the United States and abroad. In the course of our study, we have been impressed by the exten- sive literature dealing with the appalling consequences of nuclear war, with nuclear arsenals and strategic doctrine, and with the detailed diplomatic and bureaucratic politics of particular efforts to achieve specific nuclear arms control agreements. At the same time, we have sensed the lack of an objective overview of current arms control agree- ments and proposals that brought into focus the evolution of these con- cepts and the issues underlying the often confusing domestic and international debate on them. We concluded that there was a useful role to be filled in sharing our collective background on these subjects with our colleagues in the Academy. This book had its immediate origins in a two-day tutorial on the prob- lems of arms control and international security that the National Acad- emy of Sciences held for its membership in the spring of 1984. To assist 1X

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x PREFACE the participants in preparing for the tutorial, the committee prepared a background paper on the major agreements and proposals directed at the control of nuclear arms. This paper has now been expanded and substantially reworked to form this book. We have not attempted in this volume to reach conclusions or make recommendations on specific arms control proposals or issues. Rather, we have endeavored to present the reader with an overview of the his- torical development of present U.S. and Soviet positions on specific arms control proposals and to identify the underlying issues on which opinions are so divided. In presenting issues, we have chosen the ap- proach of stating opposing points of view in order to illuminate the nature of the debate. In doing this, we have tried to avoid both extreme arguments that would unfairly discredit a position and compromise positions that would obscure the underlying issues. There are many variants to all of these arguments, and it is most unlikely that a spokes- person for any particular position would use or even support all of the arguments presented for that position. The Committee on International Security and Arms Control and its individual members obviously do not agree with all of the conflicting opinions set forth in this document, but they do believe that these opinions present a balanced view of the scope of the debate. On behalf of the committee I would like to express our special appreci- ation to our fellow committeeman Spurgeon M. Keeny, cr., Scholar-in- Residence, National Academy of Sciences, whose dedicated efforts made this volume possible. We also join in thanking Lori Esposito, who provided our staff support, for her invaluable contribution in research- ing and preparing drafts of many sections of this volume. We would! also like to thank Charles van Doren for his assistance on the chapter on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, Lynn Rusten and Steve Olson for their editorial assistance, and Barbara Wollison for her secretarial sup- port in preparing the many drafts that led finally to this volume. In the preparation of this book we have all learned a great deal about the background and issues underlying the current debate on nuclear arms control. We hope that others will also find this book useful in their own efforts to understand the debate and to develop positions on the role of arms control in reducing the threat of nuclear war. Marvin 1.. Goldberger Chairman Committee on International Security and Arms Control

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NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL BACKGROUND AND ISSUES