TABLE 3 GNP Growth Rates, Actual and Projected, 1962–1981, 1990, 1980–1995 (percent)

 

Growth Rate

Region or Country

Actuala (1962–1970)

Actuala (1970–1981)

Projecteda (1981–1990)

Projectedb (1980–1995)

World

5.7

3.6

3.4

3–3.3

Pacific Basin

3.8–3.6

People’s Republic of China

5.7

2.8

9.0

8.4–5.9

Japan

14.9

5.3

3.8

4–4.2

Other Northeast Asia

3.2

8.4

8.5

ASEAN

12.6

7.4

6.0

3.5–4.5

North America

4.1

3.1

3.5

2.7

Australia

5.8

3.5

3.8

3–2.5

New Zealand and other Pacific

3.7

3.6

3.0

1.9–1.2

Europe

7.4

2.1

2.1

2.6–2.8

Middle East

8.9

8.5

4.1

1.3–3.5

Hong Kong

5.5

South Korea

7–5.6

Singapore

4.2–5.8

Indonesia

3.7–4.1

Malaysia

4.6–4.2

Philippines

0–2.9

Thailand

5–5.1

aSOURCE: Adapted from Findlay et al. (1986).

bSOURCE: Adapted from Onishi and Nakamura (1986).

merchants, and migrants or, in Japan, by government initiative. These were mainly agricultural, extractive, and transport technologies. Exports of primary products led early growth. Those activities produced trading surpluses to support the gradual buildup of protected import replacement industries.

After World War II, the region was influenced by the United States, which had reached a peak of economic expansion, and Japan, which was undergoing the transformation into the second-largest economic force of the industrialized economies. Factors contributing to the expansion of Japan and the United States and to their subsequent influence in the region were local raw materials from Australia and Indonesia for Japan, technology transfer, capital, and cheap labor, which encouraged local investment by both nations.

As people, products, knowledge, and capital became more mobile, the effects of the product cycle accelerated. Production costs became more sensitive to the shifting comparative advantage, and the progressive lowering of trade barriers facilitated transfers. This trend was particularly pronounced in the Pacific because of large differences in labor and raw materials. Industrialization began with simple manufacturing of consumer goods and processing of local raw materials. In recent years, the breakup of the production process into standardized segments promoted relocation of labor-



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