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Saving Lives, Buying Time: Economics of Malaria Drugs in an Age of Resistance
work in a construction or other development project). Climate change also contributes to the development of epidemics. In terms of population effect, two common features of nearly all malaria epidemics are: 1) an equal risk of clinical disease and death among children and adults, and 2) a clinical burden that outweighs and overwhelms available health services (Snow and Gilles, 2002).
Epidemics and Climate Change
On the fringes of endemic areas, climate often restricts malaria transmission—i.e., normal conditions are either too dry, too wet, or too cold for propagation of vectors or parasites. In such sites, small environmental changes can trigger an epidemic. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (a weather event that originates in the Pacific Ocean but has wide-ranging global consequences, in particular droughts and floods) has been particularly well studied in this regard (Kovats et al., 2003). For example, El Niño-related droughts have been associated with malaria outbreaks in Sri Lanka (Bouma and van der Kaay, 1996), Colombia (Poveda et al., 2001), and Irian Jaya (Bangs and Subianto, 1999). Conversely, in highland regions, elevated temperatures due to El Niño may increase malaria transmission, as occurred in Northern Pakistan in 1981-1991(Bouma et al., 1996). Higher than usual temperatures, and heavy rainfall also have contributed to short-term increases in highland malaria in Rwanda (Loevinsohn, 1994) and Uganda (Lindblade et al., 1999).
Despite the effect of climate change on highland malaria, emerging evidence suggests that drug resistance has influenced highland epidemics in east Africa to a far greater degree than any other environmental factor (Hay et al., 2002). For example, chloroquine resistance has been identified as a key factor in the resurgence of malaria on the Kericho tea estates in Kenya where climate, environment, human population, health care provision, and malaria control measures remained stable (Shanks et al., 2000). Similarly, the malaria resurgence in the Usambara mountains of Tanzania has now been linked to the rise in antimalarial drug resistance (Bodker et al., 2000) as opposed to previously postulated climate change (Matola et al., 1987).
Mass Population Movements
There are many reasons for mass migration: war and civil strife, economic resettlement, environmental and natural disasters. Under appropriate conditions, this mobility can affect malaria transmission. Among 20 countries with a high risk of malaria transmission in the Americas, 16 identified human mobility as a major cause of persistence of transmission (PAHO, 1995). Migration also has been associated with the spread of drug-