Click for next page ( 88


The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page 87
5 . MANUFACTURING, COSTS, AND PRODUC IBILITY Manufacturing plans of the major automobile companies for 1975- 1976 systems are not firm at this stage. Changes will almost certainly be made between now and the start of production. However, each company has taken positive steps toward implementation of their best estimate of the components that might be introduced for 1975 and 1976. Schedules are compressed and significant risks are involved. Consequently most companies have more than one alternative plan for the emission-contro1 system for these model years. In some cases, manufacturers have designed and/or made tooling for alternative configurations. 5.1 Manufacturability of Several Proposed Engine Systems Several types of engines that might be produced in the 1976 model year have been evaluated from the view point of manufacturability and costs. These engines are: 1) the dual-catalyst system proposed by most manufacturers, 2) the diesel, 3) the Wankel, 4) the three- valve stratified-charge, and 5) a feedback-controlled system with electronic fuel injection and a three-way catalyst. 5.1.1 The Dual-Catalyst System In response to California and federal regulations over the years, the automotive industry has progressively added to the emissions- control devices on automobiles. Due in part to a determined effort to preserve as much of the technology of the carbureted internal-combustion engine as possible, the approaches to emissions control have consisted of add-one and relatively minor engine modifications. Although the various companies have worked independently, there have been many similarities in approach, and the typical pattern of hardware addition is presented in Table 5-1. Beginning with the 1976 model year, this - 87 -

OCR for page 87
Table 5-1 Chrono logy o f Deve lopment o f the Dua 1 -Cata lys t Sys tem Model Year Emission Hardware Added . . 1966 a) PCV Valve 1968 a) Fuel-Evaporation Control System 1970 a) Retarded Ignition Timing b) Decreased Compression Ratio c) Increased Al r/Fuel Ratio d) Transmission-Control System 1972 a) Anti-Diesel Solenoid Valve b) Thermostatic Air Valve c) a) b) 1973 d) e) Choke-heat Bypass Exhaust-Gas Recirculation Air-Injection Reactor Induction-Hardened Valve Seats Spark Advance Control Air Pump 1974 a) Precision Cams, Bores, and Pistons Model Year Emission Hardware-Likely Configuration 1975 a) Proportional Exhaust-Gas Recirculation b) Carburetor with Altitude Compensation Air/Fuel Preheater Electric Choke d) e) f) g) h) i) i, k) Electronic Ignition Improved Timing Control Oxidizing Catalytic Converter Pellet Charge Increased Cooling System Improved Underhood Materials Body Revisions Model Year Most Cordon Configuration 1976 a) fox Catalytic Converter' 2 required b) Electronic Emissions Control c) Sensors - 88 - 1

OCR for page 87
system will include both oxidation and reduction catalysts; thus it is termed the dual-catalyst system. This system is shown schematically in Figure 3-1. The corresponding increases in sticker price associated with these hardware additions are detailed in Table 5-2 and summarized in Table 5-3. According to these estimates, the additional price in- crease of 1976 models over those of 1975 is about $134.00, or nearly the same as the increment for the preceding year. At this tome it still appears possible for the manufacturers to mass-produce systems similar to that shown in Figure 3-1 for their 1976 models. However, until the systems show wore likelihood of meet- ~ng certification for 1976, the manufacturers are reluctant to make major commitments, particularly for catalysts, and much more delay will make these systems technologically impossible for 1976 because of insufficient ~ ead time. If this type of system is to be mass- produced in the 1976 model year, the following must have been accom- pl ished by mid- 1973: · Freeze design for production · Build catalytic converter plant and line · Commit to plant and equipment for substrate ~ Commit to new carburetor production design · Freeze design of early fuel-evaporation system 5.1.2 Diesel Engine Some light-weight diesels are currently being produced for passenger cars, mainly in Europe and Japan. However, because it is difficult to make a diesel engine meet the 1976 NOx standards, and, for other reasons discussed in Section 6.1, there is no serious effort to develop the diesel engine for large- scale mass-production as a passenger-car engine. If diesel engines are developed to meet the - 89 - l

OCR for page 87
s~ ) c) . - ·r u] 0 ~ x c) ct a co . - ·r u] o erl 0 e o 0 C~ C) 5- C~ ~ 5~ u U: o 0 CO 0 o a~ C) a a, o o C) oG 3 s~ C~ u ~rl o s~ C) U. =, ·, C~ ~: ~o - s" o o o E~ Ct ~ ¢ o ·,' o a~ s~ C~ o o o o o · ~ ~ L~ · ~ oo . C~ o o o o o o o o · e e e C~ ~ ~ ~ O U~ O O ~ O C~ · · e e U~ O U) · e e U~ . O ~ O C~ · e e e e - ~: o co ~ o e e 1 L~ O I_ C5` 0 e e o a' · - co ~ 5- o . C~ C) I ~ ~ co C~ cn ~D oO a~ o a, . C~ ~ C~ 00 C~ ~ e~ 00 e e e e C~ ~ C~ U~ O O O O · · · e ~ C~ ~ ~ e e C~ O ~ .,1 0 Ct O U ·rl ~ t4 0 t ~ ~rl < E: ~ ' - O O E~ · - O ' - CO U CO ~ CO 0 0 '- U 0 ~ ' - ~ U C~ O ~ S~ ~ C' ~ E~ u, o 1— ~ 90 ~ 1— U o O O O O O O e e · e O C~ C~ C-l C~ C~l O · · · — U~ O 00 1— 00 ~ U~ · e · - ;t 0O ~ ~ O · · · . oo ~ c~ e e - O U~ ~1 0 · — O ~ I_ ~ · · · - C~ C~ C~ C) 0 U CO GO cn '0 E~ ~) _J 1 (U S~ U] ' - ~ ^ - ~ ~s ~ a, ~ 0 ., ~C O O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O .~' ~ k' ~ U' O ~ O ~ ~ ~ — ¢ u~ E~ C C~ O. C~ I_ 1— U E~

OCR for page 87
5- ~ c.) v ~ ~ s~ u, u~ 0 ~ x c) 'e X E~ a~ ) u) a o s~ p~ ~ s~ ~: o _ bO ~ - c~ ~ ~ ~ o o o ~ cC ¢ o cC o c' o >: o o o o o o o o o o ~ ~ · ~ e e e e ' - ~ C.~ O U~ ~1 O ~ C~ L~ - 1 0 · · — C~ U~ O O C~ C;O C~ ~ ~ ~ C~ · · e e · e o 0 ~ ·n c-) ~ C~ O e e · e e C~ C~ ~ O ~ C~ C~l C~ ~J C~l O O e · · · · e C~ O O C.~ ~1 1 1~ CD 0o 0 · e ~ · 00 C~ ~ 0o ~ C~ C~ · e e e · e C. o S~ O ~ C~ b0 C~ C' ¢ ~ O C~ U] ~ U] U~ ~rl _~ ~ ~q CO CO O E~ C~ ~. . ~ S~ o o erl U V O U, _ . V o C~ ~ V _ 5- U) ~ ~ a, IY ~ 1 U, ~ _ C~ co C~ S~ '~ ¢ o C~ .= :^ a) U) eq C e U O 5 .,1 ~ ¢ =0 I ¢ 1 P~ ce ~ ~ ~ 0~ - CO _ ~ o O - C5` CO U o E~ C~ :> 5~ 0 00 ·rl ~ :> V - 91 - o c.~ e O O O O O ~ e e e O U~ Ci~ l ~I C~) e e e O ~ O ~ ~ 0o · · e CO C~ Ca e e e e · e 00 . C~ 0o 0o e e 00 o . ;t . ~ O O O ~ U~ ~ ~ ~ O · e e e C.~ ~ ~ O C~ 1— ~J ~ =) O · · e e e ~ C. C~ o S~ O e ~ ~1 O O 5- a, C~ ~ ~ O cn u~ U' ~4 O · C~ U' o 0 . - V a~ ~cs 5- ~ O l a, . CO O U' O U' U' ~n ~3

OCR for page 87
s~ a P4 ~n ~n ·r o s~ ~ a, cC a) ~ x - o - ~ c~ e o o E~ ¢ c~ a) ~ ¢ :> o o o o o o o o o o o o o o · e e e e e C~ ~ C~ ~ ~ C~ . O O O O O O ~D O O O O O e e e e e e Ln ~ L~ O C~ ~0 e C~ o . o o °e o o e ~D ~ In ~ O ~ 0 oo r~ c~ c~ ~n ~ °° ° e e ~ e e e U~ U~ U~ O U~ - 1 1` 1` 10 00 e e e e e ~ CD 00 e · e O U~ O ~1 0 ~1 e · e o C~ . ~n C5` C~ e e e U~ U) O O ~ ~ e e - C~ O U~ C~ e e ~ O ~ O U~ e e ~ O 00 e e C~ ~ 0 ~ 0 O ~ ~ ~ ~ C~ · e e e · ~ e e~ u~ O O O O ~ C~ ~ ~ C~ -;t <~ ~ ;t ~ ~ ~ ~ C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ;t C~ ~ ;t · e ~ ~ e e e ~ e · e e e e ~D ~ ~ ~ C~ O O O O O O C~ O O O U~ U~ 1 0 C-) L~-) O ·n 0 I_ ~1 ~ . 13-1 0 0 e e e e e e e e | e e e e C-l C-l ~ 1_ ~ C~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ O ~ ~ ~ C~ U~ C~ O L~ CO ~ ) ~ (X) O t~ ~D ~ _~ 00 - 1 e e e ~ e e e e e e e e e e 0 1— ~ C~ ~ ~ 00 C~ U] ' ~ O ~ ~ ~ ·- S~ ~ ~ O O ~rl C: CC } a~ 0 N _~ ~ ct5 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ·- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ · ~ ~ ~ O s" ~ a) u' ~ . - 0 ~ ~ .M · - O _' ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ O <~ a, ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ s~ o~ E~ ·— o — o — V ~ u. - ~ ~ V ~ ~ 1 0 a) ~o~— ~ ·~1 U) ~ ~ S~ ~ CC ~ ·— ~ ~rl CO ~ V St ~ ,1 . - ~ C) ~ O ~ ~ ~ O U' ~ 0 o ~ o ~ ~ U ~ ~ ~o o ¢ ~ ~ S~ ~ ~ erl ~ s~ ~ ;: ~ ~ c: ~- o ~ a ~ u, U ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a o ~ s, ·.-' ~ o o ,' ~ V =: ~ ~ V ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ >,= ~ ~; O <) 3 U ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 3 U ~ ~ · O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 C~ 1 0 0 ~1 ~1 ~ (U C~ O O c~l O ~ O ~ ~ ~ O ~ — Z 3 C' ~ ~} ~— Z ~ ~ ~ tD" ~ ~ ~ ~ ¢ ~ C) 0' L~ a~ - 92 - o oo h~ ~_ u o E~

OCR for page 87
s~ a) a~ ~ c) v . - ~ p~ u, a oO erl cC ~ E~ JJ V u' · - o o · - t a~ - ~ ~ o ~ - c~ 1 L~ ¢ E~ c~ ~o o o ~ E~ a~ ~c cC ~ c' t o x ~ o o o o o o o o ~ · · — ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ u~ ·n O ~ ~ u~ · · — ~ ~ c~ . L~ U~ O O o o ~ ~ · · e e I_ ~ U~ 1 · · ~ ~ C~ z E~ z o z o E~ o . 00 00 0 ~ U~ O · · · ~ 0O 00 ~ ~ ~ J— ~ 00 · · ~ C~ C~ ~ . O O O O O O O O ~ e e e C~ 00 C~ C~ U) a 5 a O ~ C) O C) ~' ~ O ~ C) C~ V · - CC ~ C) O CO ~ ~ O O V UO Z a C~ ~ V, o 1— cO o E~ s~ · - o u, a~ o z s~ ~ o o . ~ ·,J cO - ~ ~ o cO s~ ·~1 CL s~ a) ~ C15 e {0 5~ 00 bO ~ O N =5 ·,1 >~ —~ U] ~1 a) V S~ C~ V ·,1 ~ 5- UO 4 ~ ~ a) 0 0 U) ~ . - O O S~ v c~ a a ~ N G, c~ a,1 ~ J~ =5 ~ ~ ~ O -' U {~ · o u~ 0 CL) ~ ~ e _t CO . - e U ~r! · ~ Q) N S~ ~ O<¢ ~ ~ (U . - b0~ - C~ q5 a~ ~ 0 s~ c~ t/~ ~l O ~ ~ 5~1 0 ~ O p1 Q. s~ p> c: ~ a~ cC ~ ~ ~ ~ 4 a, a) ~ a) . - . - .c ~ ~ ~ U~ ~ ~ ~ O t~l CO O et CO ~ ~ a, ~ v O O ~ ~ ~ O "S ~) O ttS Fi S~ 5- a' a) .,1 c~ O ~ oo ,~: ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U O U O O U) ~ ~ ~ .~1 0 U' U' ~ O ~ CtS E~ ¢ ~ ¢ c) ~ U' O ~ · - U ~ O ~rl Q4 U O · · · · · U] ;t i' - 93

OCR for page 87
TABLE 5-3 Summary of Sticker Prices for Emissions Hardware from 1966 Uncontrolled Vehicle to 1976 Dual-Catalyst System Year Sticker Price Increase Cumulative Price 1966 1968 1970 1971-72 1973 1974 1975 1976 1972 Dollars $ 3.00 15.00 8.00 14.00 60.00 20.60 138.20 134.00 - 94 - $ 3.00 18.00 26.00 40.00 100.00 120.60 25 8. 80 392.80

OCR for page 87
1976 emission levels, the emission control will probably be largely achieved by engine modifications and possibly turbocharging. Thus, even though the exact configuration is undefined, the manufacturability would not differ greatly from that of current diesel engines, and the major manufacturing problems can be identified. The engines themselves are quite similar to Otto-cycle piston engines, but necessarily heavier to withstand higher operating pres- sures. The transfer and assembly lines for these engines are similar to those used for existing gasoline engines. Fuel-injection pumps and injection nozzles are now being produced on very modern mass-production equipment in England and Germany. Turbochargers have been produced in low volume for larger engines, and adaptation to mass-production for smaller engines is quite feasible. Most of the technology for mass- production of light-weight diesel engines is available but scattered, mostly in Europe. This wide dispersion of technology is a major barrier to the coordinated development of a low-emission diesel engine. In additon to changes in the engine and its auxilliaries, conversion of automobiles to diesel power would require relatively major modifications of the frame, suspension, and body in order to accommodate the larger, heavier engine. If a diesel engine that can meet the 1976 emission standards is developed, and if, as assumed here, it is generally similar to present diesel engines, it should be possible to mass-produce them for the 1976 model year if the following have been accomplished by mid-1973: . Freeze design for production Arrange for transfer of European light-duty diesel technology Build low-volume production tooling · Plan for conversion of gasoline engine lines for diesel engine production Plan body changes Arrange for supply of turbochargers (if used) _ 95 _

OCR for page 87
5 .1. 3 Wankel Engine The Wankel engine is being mass-produced in Japan and sold in the United States at competitive prices. The engine is in mass- production in Japan at Toyo Kogyo with American sales of the Mazda in the United States projected at 350,000 units in 1975. A recent announce- ment indicates a production commitment to the Wankel engine by General Motors. There is every indication that a substantial number of Wankel- powered automobiles will be driven on United States roads in 1976. The engine has a cost advantage due to its low weight per horsepower -- about 1.5 pounds per horsepower compared to 4 to 6 pounds for a p is ton- type gasoline engine. The manufacturing advantages of the Wankel engine are that it can be manufactured and assembled on fully automatic production lines. The engine design will eventually allow a new frame and body design that will have many safety, space, and weight advantages. The implementation plan for the General Motors Wankel engine has it introduced into the low end of the line, possibly replacing both the 4- and 6-cylinder engines in turn. The optimum- cost volume per year of the Wankel engine will be between 450,000 and 600,000 engines per year. The small V-8s might also find a larger- diameter 2-rotor Wankel engine as a competitor. A 4-rotor Wankel engine is a more complex design with longer crank shaft. Two to four more years will be required on its development before it can be con- s idered a competitor to the larger V-8. The manufacturing requirements for the Wankel engine are con- centrated around the following significant equipment: a trochoid grinder for the rotor housing, a rotary grinder for finishing of the end housings, an eccentric grinder for the rotor, some special plat- ing equipment combined with surface-preparation equipment, and special equipment for pressing and sintering the apex seals. These machines are available today from several machine-tool concerns and can be de- livered within one or two years. Mass-production conversions of these - 96 -

OCR for page 87
will require between one and two years of tooling design. An auto- matic assembly line and machining line combined will probably take anywhere from three to five years to develop and install. The cost of a future Wankel-powered car will be $140.00 to $800.00 less per car than the corresponding 1976 dual-catalyst con- f~guration; of this ~mount, $25.00 to $77.00 is due to the engine, and the remainder of the saving would come from design of a lighter, shorter car. 5.1.4 The Carbureted Three-Valve Stratified-Charge Engine Because the three-valve stratified-charge engine is basically an existing carbureted spark-ignition piston engine except for modi- fications to the cylinder head, carburetor, and manifolds, it presents relatively few production problems. Manufacture of all components is based on known and proven technology. Honda Motor Company plans to produce this type of system for their 1974 models in Japan, and they will introduce it in the United States in 1975. For another manu- facturer to mass-produce this system in model year 1976 would require the following accomplishments by mid-1973: · Transfer technology from Honda Motors · Freeze des ign for production · Decisions made and orders placed for new transfer lines for cylinder heads, mans fold systems, and carburetors · Design new camsha£t-production line 5.1.5 A Typical Feedback-Controlled System Because of the apparent potential for emission reduction and ease of maintenance, which might result with further development of some of the feedback-controlled systems, manufacturability and costs of one of these systems were evaluated. The configuration studied ! --

OCR for page 87
:ir~cluded electronic fuel injection and a three-way catalyst. As with the dual-catalyst system discussed in Section 5.1.1, this approach re- quires relatively minor changes to existing engines, with the conver- sion from carburetion to fuel injection being the most significant. The mini-computer that controls the injection timing and duration is based an known technology, and manufacture of the catalyst is similar to that for the dual-catalyst system. Once a satisfactorily durable oxygen sensor is developed, its manufacture should be relatively simple. Production of this system for the 1976 model year is quite feasible, provided the following have been accomplished by mid-1973: . . Freeze design for production · Commit to pump and nozzle plants · Build low-volume production tooling and vehicles Field test low-volume production vehicles · Commit to electronic emissions control unit plant and tooling 5 2 Manufacturabil ity and C as ts of Automotive Exhaus t Catalys ts As discussed previously, most manufacturers plan to use a dual-catalytic system for 1976 model year vehicles. From a manu- facturing standpoint, the problems of producing oxidizing and re- ducing catalysts are the same. The catalyst manufacturers who pro- pose pelletized catalysts already have the sources for a substantial portion of the carrier materials and some capacity for coating with the active material. This type of catalyst is used extensively in the petroleum industry. The manufacturing fact lities need only to be increased or additional similar type of equipment provided. Many companies are active in the development of catalysts and substrates. In addition to the long-established catalyst and substrate manufacturers, General Motors has recently disclosed that they have developed an extrusion method for making monolith catalyst - 98 -

OCR for page 87
carriers. They have plans for constructing these facilities and have indicated their intention to become major emission-control catalyst manufacturers, including the carrier containers and possibly the active material that is coated on the carrier. It has become increasingly apparent that 1976 catalys ts will require the use of large quantities of noble metals. The two noble metals of greatest promise are platinum and palladium; for oxidation alone, a car of 350-cubic-inch displacement would need up to 0. 15 ounces of either metal . This f igure would be doubled if the require- ment for the NOx catalyst is similar. Thus, there would be a demand of as much as 3 million ounces for the initial installation of the catalytic converters required, a figure comparable to the world pro- duction in 1970. Ruthenium is the most promising NOx catalyst, al- though it is in short supply. The recovery of platinum contained in spent catalyst delivered to the door of precious-metal refiners should be above 99 percent. The efficiency of scavengers in collecting spent noble-metal catalysts is difficult to estimate. Since the value of the recovered metal is of the order of $15-20 per car, efficiency of scavenging should be high. For comparison, copper is 50¢ per pound and 61 percent of scrap copper is recycled in the United States. Most base-metal catalysts are promoted with precious metals at less than 0.01 ounce per car. In this case, there is less incentive for scav- engers to collect resources. It appears that the required amounts of noble metal can be made available to meet production schedules if decisions are made early enough; postponement would cause increasing difficulties with delivery. Some companies have delayed decisions because of the very large commitments for opening mines and having new plants built. _ 99

OCR for page 87
5.3 Summary of Costs of Various Proposed Systems The relevant cost concept is the total cos t to the American people of meeting the emission standards, which must be weighed against the cost of air pollution by present automobiles with their attendant human discomforts and illnesses. This includes not only increases n automobile purchase prices, but also increased costs of fuel, main- tenance, repair, and driveability that result from pollution-control devices. Of these considerations, it is especially difficult to re- late poorer driveability to a cost in dollars, but the customer pays in other ways, e.g., through frustrations and delays. Dollar esti- mates of the other costs can be made, although these are necessarily imprecise because of uncertainties at this stage. A summary of the estimated increments in annual costs due to emissions-control systems for several possible 1976 car and engine combinations is given in Table 5-4. The engines are those that have been discussed, and price increments have been calculated for those car-engine combinations that appear feasible. The stratified-charge 3-valve engine may eventually be developed for larger cars, but so far its potential for low emissions has been demonstrated only in small cars. The cost increments are measured from equivalent 1970 model cars as a baseline, and these annual costs are amortized over a five-year period. These figures include not only the direct cost of emissions hardware, but also associated costs of redesign of the rest of the car to accommodate the new systems. These associated costs include weight penalties, which can be quite significant in either direction; e.g., diesel-powered cars will be relatively heavy, whereas an automobile designed around the compact Wankel end ne can be appreciably lighter than present cars. Estimates of increased costs of fuel consumption and main- tenance due to emission controls are also included in the figures in Table 5-4. Of the five engines listed, the emission-controlled diesel - 100 -

OCR for page 87
5- cO em A) at o o o u, o 1 ~ us o ~ cq co cO Em O o c) at o Em em COO a) .= =0 O . 0 So Cal U) a) Cal Carl of: Cal V o Cam C) C) U. GO ~ 1 ~1 ~1 Can a; Cal en .~1 V CD CO oo I ~ 1 ~ U a) Cad ~ ~ ~ ~ a, ~ ·,1 · · c) cC u) u) ·~~ ~, 0 ~ ~ a ~ ~ ~ ~ cq ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ l oo ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o v ~ a) ~ ~l ,l ~ a) ~ ~ ~ co · ~ ~ :^ cn ~ ~ v 1 1 U) C~ CQ ~ 00 . - a, u ~ oo ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ u~ ~ u~ ~n a c~ l ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e~ o >~ >) ·,! ~ ~ ~ ~ v a; I o~ ~ ~ a ~n v c' ·,l cO ~ a, L~ O O ~ U~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C~ c~ ~ 00 0 a C~ ~ ~ 3 ~ ~ ~ C~ a~ 0 ~ co ~ ~ ~ O cO v cC c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ v cO v u, a, ~ ~ ~ ~ o co ~ ~ ~ 0 a L~ ~ ~ . - . - a~ u) ~ 0 ~ a) .,1 1 V U) U) 1 0 0 ~ a) ~ ~ ~ o s~ ~ u] 00 ~ L~ ~ ~ C~ et — c~ ~ oo ~ u~ ~ ~ cn u, c ' a~ .- - o o ~ ~ ~ v o o .- v ~ .m ,= o ~ o o v ¢ ~ v o .- s~ ~ cc a) a u) >, ~ 1 a) v ~ ~l a~ c~ a, ~ ~ ~ ~ a) exs ·~- ~ V 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ co 3 .,1 ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ a)~ - ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ b00 V ~ ~ C~ [3 ~ ,1 .,1 ~ ~ ct ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ u~ S~ u~ a~ P~ a~ ~ cD ~ ~ ~ ~ a~ ~ ~ ~ a >, U~ C) ,~ C ,= 1 ~ O ·— -~ C;~ C'~ ~ V 3 ~ O c~ ~ a, c: cD ~ ~ ~ E~ ~n ~ c~ ~ V - 101 -

OCR for page 87
and the stratified-charge engines show promise for fuel economy com- petitive with 1970 gasoline engines. The feedback-controlled spark- ignition engine with electronic fuel injection promises reasonable fuel mileage, because of its operation near stoichiometry, but will still suffer a 10-15 percent fuel penalty over 1970 engines. The dual-catalyst system proposed by most manufacturers will use about 25 percent more fuel than its 1970 counterpart; and the Wankel configuration, which seems most likely to meet the 1976 standards, will probably pay a fuel penalty of approximately 30 percent, due to its rich mixture ratio. 5.4 Exercise to Illustrate the Impact of Possible Use Or a Mix of Engines and Control Systems As mentioned earlier, the American automobi] e producers are by and large seeking to meet the 1976 requirements with a dual-catalyst modified carbureted piston engine across their car lines. However, it is quite unlikely that any single engine type or control system will prove suitable for all sizes and types of 1976 automobiles. Further- more, several new low-emission engine configurations may well phase in to replace some of the carbureted piston engines. Clearly, phasing in of these various new engines and control systems and phasing out of the engines they replace will have an effect on sticker price due to the cap ital cos ts incurred. A computer s imulation of the dynamics of such a process was carried out to determine the magnitude of this effect. Although any set of assumptions could have applied in this simulation, a set was chosen which leads to a relatively high impact on the industry, i. e., it phases out the present type engines very quickly. (It should be emphasized that the Committee does not consider such a drastic change to be probable. ~ The following are the assumptions used: 1. The modified carbureted piston engine equipped with an oxidation catalyst will be produced only In model year 1975 and no modif fed carbureted p is ton engine using catalytic control of emis signs will be produced in model year 1976. - 102 -

OCR for page 87
2. The Wankel engine will be introduced initially in the small cars (subcompact and compact) and sub- sequently will be developed in higher-horsepower versions for larger vehicles. 3. Diesel engines (4 and 6 cylinders) will be intro- duced for fleet-car usage by 1975. A V-8 Diesel will be introduced subsequently. A limited number of stratified-charge ergs nes (3-valve) will be introduced in 4- and 6-cylinder vers ions for small cars . 5. Gasoline engines with electronic fuel injection will be introduced by 1976 in 4-, 6-, and 8-cylinder versions in very large quantities. Applying these hypothetical assumptions to the simulation model, the cap ital - inves tment impact on manuf actur ing f ac it ities was then developed, as a sticker price increase. In the model, the aggregate American production was considered without identifying the specific producer. The car configurations were detailed down to the major com- ponents and subassemblies. These units were then scheduled in production in the proper sequence and at the proper time to yield the desired schedule using standard industry lead times. These numbers were devel- oped giving due consideration to expected product life and normal industry amortization practices. The expected sticker-price increases to return the capital investment in new production lines, old production-line tear- up, assembly-line change, and new facilities were found to range (even with such a drastic change in engines and control systems in such a short time) from $8 to $150 per car. - 103 -