. "International Technology Roadmaps: The U.S. Semiconductor Experience." Productivity and Cyclicality in Semiconductors: Trends, Implications, and Questions -- Report of a Symposium. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2004.
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Productivity and Cyclicality in Semiconductors: Trends, Implications, and Questions - Report of a Symposium
FIGURE 1 Dynamic RAM Best-Bit Prices.
SOURCE: ICE and National Technology Roadmap.
There appear to be no major physical limitations to improving productivity in silicon integrated circuits for the next 15 to 20 years. Today’s 16-megabit DRAMs and associated microprocessor and logic chips are manufactured using 0.5-μm technology. The manufacturing facilities currently under construction will produce 0.35-μm and 0.25-μm products before the end of the decade. Table 1 shows a summary of the technologies projected by the National Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (“Roadmap”) out through the year 2007. Behind this projection for the technology for the next 15 years are complete roadmaps for each of the major technologies in support of the manufacture of silicon integrated circuits. This work was the result of hundreds of scientists and engineers from universities, industry, and government working together to develop a set of industry requirements for silicon technology. The history of this roadmap process, the methods used to develop the National Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, some of the overall requirements of the Roadmap, and finally, some sugges-