III
APPENDIXES



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Productivity and Cyclicality in Semiconductors: Trends, Implications, and Questions - Report of a Symposium III APPENDIXES

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Productivity and Cyclicality in Semiconductors: Trends, Implications, and Questions - Report of a Symposium Appendix A Biographies of Speakers* C. LANIER BENKARD Lanier Benkard received his B.S. in economics from University of Toronto in 1991 and his Ph.D. in economics from Yale University in 1998. Since 1998 he has been an Assistant Professor of Economics at the Stanford University Graduate School of Business. Since 1999 he has been a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economics. For the academic year 2001-2002, he was named a National Fellow at the Hoover Institution. Prior to receiving his Ph.D., he worked as an Associate Economist at WEFA Inc. Dr. Benkard’s recent papers and publications include “Learning and Forgetting: The Dynamics of Aircraft Production” (2000), A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft (2001), and “Demand Estimation with Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach” (2001). At Stanford Dr. Benkard teaches graduate courses in industrial organization, applied microeconomics and econometrics. ROBERT R. DOERING Robert Doering is a Senior Fellow in Silicon Technology Development at Texas Instruments (TI). His primary area of responsibility is Technology Strategy. His previous positions at TI include Manager of Future-Factory Strategy, Director of Scaled-Technology Integration, and Director of the Microelectronics *   As of September 2001.

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Productivity and Cyclicality in Semiconductors: Trends, Implications, and Questions - Report of a Symposium Manufacturing Science and Technology (MMST) Program. The MMST Program was a five-year R&D effort, funded by DARPA, the U.S. Air Force, and Texas Instruments, which developed a wide range of new technologies for advanced semiconductor manufacturing. The major highlight of the program was the demonstration in 1993 of sub-three-day cycle time for manufacturing 0.35-μm CMOS integrated circuits. This was principally enabled by the development of 100 percent single-wafer processing. Dr. Doering received a B.S. degree in physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1968 and a Ph.D. in physics from Michigan State University in 1974. He joined TI in 1980 after several years on the faculty of the Physics Department at the University of Virginia. His physics research was on nuclear reactions and was highlighted by the discovery of the Giant Spin-Isospin Resonance in heavy nuclei in 1973. His early work at Texas Instruments was on SRAM, DRAM, and NMOS/CMOS device physics and process-flow design. Management responsibilities during his first 10 years at TI included advanced lithography and plasma etch as well as CMOS and DRAM technology development. Dr. Doering is a member of the American Physical Society, the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He represents TI on many industry committees, including: the Technology Strategy Committee of the Semiconductor Industry Association, the Board of Directors of the Semiconductor Research Corporation, the Semiconductor Manufacturing Technical Committee of the IEEE Electron Device Society, and the Corporate Associates Advisory Committee of the American Institute of Physics. Dr. Doering is also one of the two U.S. representatives to the International Roadmap Committee, which governs the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors. He has authored over 130 published/conference papers and has 19 U.S. patents. KENNETH FLAMM Kenneth Flamm, who joined the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs of the University of Texas at Austin in fall 1998, is a 1973 honors graduate of Stanford University and received a Ph.D. in economics from MIT in 1979. From 1993 to 1995 Dr. Flamm served as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Economic Security and as Special Assistant to the Deputy Secretary of Defense for Dual-Use Technology Policy. He was awarded the Department’s Distinguished Public Service Medal in 1995 by Defense Secretary William J. Perry. Prior to his service at the Defense Department, he spent 11 years as a Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution. Dr. Flamm has been a professor of economics at the Instituto Tecnológico A. de México in Mexico City, the University of Massachusetts, and George Washington University. He has also been an adviser to the Director General of Income

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Productivity and Cyclicality in Semiconductors: Trends, Implications, and Questions - Report of a Symposium Policy in the Mexican Ministry of Finance and a consultant to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the World Bank, the National Academy of Sciences, the Latin American Economic System, the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Department of Justice, the U.S Agency for International Development, and the Office of Technology Assessment of the U.S. Congress. Among Dr. Flamm’s publications are Mismanaged Trade? Strategic Policy and the Semiconductor Industry (1996), Changing the Rules: Technological Change, International Competition, and Regulation in Communications (ed., with Robert Crandall, 1989), Creating the Computer (1988), and Targeting the Computer (1987). He is currently working on an analytical study of the post-Cold War defense industrial base. Dr. Flamm, an expert on international trade and high-technology industry, teaches classes in microeconomic theory, international trade, and defense economics. RANDALL D. ISAAC Randall D. Isaac is the Vice President, Science and Technology, for the IBM Research Division. He has worldwide responsibility for the Research Division’s strategy in the areas of Physical Sciences and Technology, including semiconductor, packaging, communications and display technologies. He was formerly the Director of the newly formed IBM Austin Research Laboratory in Austin, Texas. The focus of the lab is high-performance microprocessor design. Prior to his current role, Dr. Isaac was a senior manager in the Semiconductor Research and Development Center of the IBM Microelectronics Division in Burlington, Vermont. In this capacity, he was the project manager for the 64Mb DRAM development joint program with Siemens and Toshiba. Dr. Isaac previously worked at the IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center in Yorktown Heights, New York, as the Director of Silicon Technology. He also managed the bipolar technology group and the silicon processing facility, and he was active in advanced silicon facility planning. Dr. Isaac received his B.S. degree in physics from Wheaton College in Wheaton, Illinois, in 1972 and his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in 1974 and 1977, respectively. Dr. Isaac joined IBM in 1977 at IBM Research, Yorktown. Dr. Isaac is a Senior Member of Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers and an American Physical Society Fellow. IRA A. JACKSON Ira A. Jackson, Lecturer in Public Policy and Management, is Director of the Center for Business and Government (CBG) of Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government (KSG). Jackson came to CBG from BankBoston, a large multinational commercial bank, where for a dozen years he was an executive vice president and where he helped to shape an unusual business strategy of

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Productivity and Cyclicality in Semiconductors: Trends, Implications, and Questions - Report of a Symposium “managing for value with values.” Previously, Jackson served as Commissioner of Revenue in Massachusetts, where he tried to implement entrepreneurial strategies to improve the accountability and performance of a traditional governmental bureaucracy. From 1976-1982 he served as Associate Dean of the Kennedy School. Earlier, he was a top aide to Newark, New Jersey, Mayor Kenneth Gibson and Boston Mayor Kevin White. He holds an undergraduate degree from Harvard College and an MPA from KSG, and he is a graduate of the Advanced Management Program at the Harvard Business School. Jackson is active in civic and community affairs, and he played a role in launching CityYear and a number of other innovative, local, not-for-profit institutions. His interests focus on making government more accountable and business more responsible, and on leveraging competencies and concerns from the public, private, and NGO sectors in advancing economic progress and promoting social justice. DALE W. JORGENSON Dale W. Jorgenson is the Frederic Eaton Abbe Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He has been a Professor in the Department of Economics at Harvard since 1969 and Director of the Program on Technology and Economic Policy at the Kennedy School of Government since 1984. He served as Chairman of the Department of Economics from 1994 to 1997. Jorgenson received his Ph.D. degree in economics from Harvard in 1959 and his B.A. in economics from Reed College in Portland, Oregon, in 1955. Dr. Jorgenson was elected to membership in the American Philosophical Society in 1998, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in 1989, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in 1978, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1969. He was elected to Fellowship in the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 1982, the American Statistical Association in 1965, and the Econometric Society in 1964. He was awarded honorary doctorates by Uppsala University and the University of Oslo in 1991. Dr. Jorgenson is President of the American Economic Association. He has been a member of the Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy of the National Research Council since 1991 and was appointed to be Chairman of the Board in 1998. He is also Chairman of Section 54, Economic Sciences, of the National Academy of Sciences. He served as President of the Econometric Society in 1987. Dr. Jorgenson received the prestigious John Bates Clark Medal of the American Economic Association in 1971. This Medal is awarded every 2 years to an economist under 40 for excellence in economic research. The citation for this award reads in part: Dale Jorgenson has left his mark with great distinction on pure economic theory (with, for example, his work on the growth of a dual economy); and equally on statistical method (with, for example, his development of estimation methods

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Productivity and Cyclicality in Semiconductors: Trends, Implications, and Questions - Report of a Symposium for rational distributed lags). But he is preeminently a master of the territory between economics and statistics, where both have to be applied to the study of concrete problems. His prolonged exploration of the determinants of investment spending, whatever its ultimate lessons, will certainly long stand as one of the finest examples in the marriage of theory and practice in economics. Dr. Jorgenson is the author of more than 200 articles and the author and editor of 20 books in economics. His collected papers have been published in nine volumes by The MIT Press, beginning in 1995. The most recent volume, Econometrics and Producer Behavior, was published in 2000. Prior to Dr. Jorgenson’s appointment at Harvard he was Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, where he taught from 1959 to 1969. He has been Visiting Professor of Economics at Stanford University and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and Visiting Professor of Statistics at Oxford University. He has also served as Ford Foundation Research Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago. Forty-two economists have collaborated with Dr. Jorgenson on published research. An important feature of Dr. Jorgenson’s research program has been collaboration with students in economics at Berkeley and Harvard, mainly through the supervision of doctoral research. This collaboration has often been the outgrowth of a student’s dissertation research and has led to subsequent joint publications. Many of his former students are professors at leading academic institutions in the United States and abroad, and several occupy endowed chairs. Dr. Jorgenson was born in Bozeman, Montana, in 1933 and attended public schools in Helena, Montana. He is married to Linda Mabus Jorgenson, who is a partner in the law firm of Spero and Jorgenson in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Professor and Mrs. Jorgenson reside in Cambridge. Their daughter Kari, 25, is an honors graduate of Harvard College, Class of 1997, and is an associate with Primark Decision Economics in Boston. Their son Eric, 27, is a graduate of Duke University, Class of 1995, and is a graduate student in human genetics at Stanford University. W. CLARK MCFADDEN W. Clark McFadden is a partner of Dewey Ballantine LLP, resident in the Washington, D.C. office. Mr. McFadden represents corporate clients in government contract matters and international trade, encompassing work in litigation, regulation, and legislation. He also specializes in international corporate transactions, especially the formation of joint ventures and consortia, as well as in international investigations and enforcement proceedings. Mr. McFadden has a broad background in foreign affairs and international trade, having experience with Congressional committees, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the National Security Council. In 1986 he was appointed General Counsel, President’s Special Review

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Productivity and Cyclicality in Semiconductors: Trends, Implications, and Questions - Report of a Symposium Board (“Tower Commission”), to investigate the National Security Council system and the Iran-Contra Affair. In 1979 Mr. McFadden served as Special Counsel to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the Strategic Arms Limitations Treaty (SALT II). From 1973 to 1976, he worked as General Counsel, Senate Armed Services Committee, and was responsible to the Committee for all legislative, investigatory, and oversight activities. He holds degrees from: Western Reserve Academy, 1964; Williams College, B.A., 1968, Economics (cum laude); Harvard University, M.B.A., 1972 (first class honors); Harvard University, J.D., 1972. DAVID C. MOWERY David Mowery is Milton W. Terrill Professor of Business at the Walter A. Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and Director of the Haas School’s Ph.D. program. He received his undergraduate and Ph.D. degrees in economics from Stanford University and was a postdoctoral fellow at the Harvard Business School. Dr. Mowery taught at Carnegie-Mellon University, served as the Study Director for the Panel on Technology and Employment of the National Academy of Sciences, and served in the Office of the United States Trade Representative as a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow. He has been a member of a number of National Research Council panels, including those on the Competitive Status of the U.S. Civil Aviation Industry, on the Causes and Consequences of the Internationalization of U.S. Manufacturing, on the Federal Role in Civilian Technology Development, on U.S. Strategies for the Children’s Vaccine Initiative, and on Applications of Biotechnology to Contraceptive Research and Development. His research deals with the economics of technological innovation and with the effects of public policies on innovation; he has testified before Congressional committees and served as an adviser for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various federal agencies, and industrial firms. Dr. Mowery has published numerous academic papers and has written or edited a number of books, including Paths of Innovation: Technological Change in 20th-Century America; The International Computer Software Industry: A Comparative Study of Industry Evolution and Structure; Paths of Innovation: Technological Change in 20th-Century America; The Sources of Industrial Leadership; Science and Technology Policy in Interdependent Economies; Technology and the Pursuit of Economic Growth; Alliance Politics and Economics: Multinational Joint Ventures in Commercial Aircraft; Technology and Employment: Innovation and Growth in the U.S. Economy; The Impact of Technological Change on Employment and Economic Growth; Technology and the Wealth of Nations; and International Collaborative Ventures in U.S. Manufacturing. His academic awards include the Raymond Vernon Prize from the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, the Economic History Association’s Fritz Redlich Prize,

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Productivity and Cyclicality in Semiconductors: Trends, Implications, and Questions - Report of a Symposium the Business History Review’s Newcomen Prize, and the Cheit Outstanding Teaching Award. ARIEL PAKES Ariel Pakes is a Professor of Economics in the Department of Economics at Harvard University, where he teaches courses in Industrial Organization and in Econometrics. Before coming to Harvard in 1999, he was the Charles and Dorothea Dilley Professor of Economics at Yale University (1997-1999). He has held other tenured positions, at Yale (1988-1997), the University of Wisconsin (1986-1988), and the University of Jerusalem (1985-1986). Dr. Pakes received his doctoral degree from Harvard University in 1980, and he stayed at Harvard as a Lecturer until he took a position in Jerusalem in 1981. Dr. Pakes received the award for the best graduate student adviser at Yale in 1996, and his past students are now on the faculties of several leading economics departments. Dr. Pakes was the recipient of the Frisch Medal of the Econometric Society in 1986 and was elected as a fellow of that society in 1988. He is currently co-chair of the AEA Census Advisory Panel, an Editor of the RAND Journal of Economics, an associate editor of Economic Letters and of the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, a research associate of the NBER and a member of the AEA Committee on Government Statistics. In the past Dr. Pakes has been an Associate Editor of Econometrica, the Journal of Econometrics, the International Journal of Industrial Organization, and Economics of Innovation and New Technology. He also co-edited a Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences issue on “Science, Technology and the Economy.” Dr. Pakes has given symposium lectures to several broad professional groups, including the National Academy of Sciences, the Econometric Society, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the National Council on Research and Development in Israel. He has also served on numerous National Science Foundation panels, including the Economics Advisory Panel, Global Change, Computational Economics, Data Opportunities, and the Presidential Fellow Advisory Board. In addition Dr. Pakes has done work for a number of consultancies, government agencies, and large firms. Professor Pakes’s research has been in Industrial Organization (I.O.), the Economics of Technological Change, and Econometric Theory. He and his co-authors have recently focused on developing techniques which allow empirical analysis of I.O. models. This includes: theoretical work on how to estimate demand and cost systems, and then to use the estimated parameters to analyze equilibrium responses to policy and environmental changes; empirical work which uses these techniques to analyze the implications of alternative events in different industries; and the development of a framework for the numerical analysis of dynamic oligopolies (with and without collusive possibilities). The recent empirical work includes an analysis of the impact of the breakup

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Productivity and Cyclicality in Semiconductors: Trends, Implications, and Questions - Report of a Symposium of AT&T on productivity in the telecommunication equipment industry, an analysis of the impact of Voluntary Export Restrictions on the profits and consumer welfare generated by the sales of new cars, and an analysis of the impact of the entry and exit of goods on the price index for personal computers. His previous work outside I.O. proper included the co-development of simulation estimators (in Econometric Theory), and the development of measures of the costs and returns to research and patenting activities (in Technological Change). Dr. Pakes is married to Juliana Rojas Pakes and has two children. MARK PINTO Mark Pinto is the Chief Technical Officer of Agere Systems, formerly the Microelectronics Group of Lucent Technologies, and also serves as Agere’s Vice President of Integrated Circuit Technology. Dr. Pinto’s responsibilities include defining Agere’s technology strategy; directing research activities formerly in Bell Laboratories related to semiconductor devices, integrated circuit design, and software and systems; and leading the company’s efforts to deliver process and interconnect technologies, system-on-a-chip hardware cores, communications software elements, development software, and design methodologies. Dr. Pinto had been with Bell Laboratories since 1985, serving as Director of the Silicon Electronics Research Laboratory in the Bell Laboratories Research Division, which was responsible for advanced R&D of materials, processes, devices, and IC designs. He was selected as a Bell Laboratories Distinguished Member of Technical Staff in 1991 and a Bell Labs Fellow in 1995, both for work in semiconductor device physics and computational simulation. Dr. Pinto has authored or co-authored more than 150 journal and professional conference papers and has eight patents in semiconductor devices. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. Dr. Pinto received bachelor’s degrees in electrical engineering and computer science from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, and a master’s degree and doctorate in electrical engineering from Stanford University. As part of his doctoral work at Stanford, Dr. Pinto developed the semiconductor device simulation program PISCES-II, which was a standard tool in the integrated-circuit industry for more than a decade. GEORGE M. SCALISE George Scalise is President of the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the premier trade association representing the microchip industry. As President, Mr. Scalise directs and oversees SIA programs focused on public policy, technology, workforce, international trade and government affairs, environment safety and health, and communications. Mr. Scalise has had a long career in the semiconductor and related industries,

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Productivity and Cyclicality in Semiconductors: Trends, Implications, and Questions - Report of a Symposium bringing with him over 35 years of industry experience. Prior to joining the SIA in June 1997, Mr. Scalise served as the executive vice president of operations at Apple Computer. Preceding Apple, he worked in numerous executive positions at National Semiconductor Corporation, Maxtor Corporation, Advanced Micro Devices, Fairchild Semiconductor, and Motorola Semiconductor. Mr. Scalise is a highly respected technology and public policy spokesperson for the industry. He has a special interest and expertise in international-trade and competition issues. For over eight years Mr. Scalise was the chairman of SIA’s Public Policy Committee, shaping and implementing the semiconductor industry’s agenda on major policy issues. Additionally, he was a founder, a member, and the chairman of the Board of the Semiconductor Research Corporation (SRC), an industry-funded organization that provides resources for precompetitive semiconductor research at American universities. For three years he also served on the Board of Directors of SEMATECH, a research consortium created to improve manufacturing technology in the semiconductor industry. Mr. Scalise is active on many boards and advisory committees. In December 1999 he was elected to the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the Twelfth Federal Reserve District, to represent non-banking interests in the District’s nine states. In October 2000 he was appointed Deputy Chairman of the Bank for the year 2001 by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank. He also serves on the boards of Cadence Design Systems and Network Equipment Technologies. Mr. Scalise has served on a number of university and government boards, including: the University of Southern California School of Engineering Board of Councilors; the Santa Clara University Leavey School of Business Advisory Board; the University of Texas at Austin Engineering Foundation Advisory Committee; the Purdue University Engineering Visiting Committee; the Secretary of Energy Advisory Board for the U.S. Department of Energy, as chairman; and the Joint High Level Advisory Panel of the U.S.-Israel Science and Technology Committee. Mr. Scalise graduated from Purdue University with a B.S. in mechanical engineering. MINJAE SONG Minjae Song is a 1996 honors graduate of Seoul National University with a B.A. in economics and, since 1998, has been a student in the Ph.D. program in economics at Harvard University, focusing on industrial organization and econometrics. His current research interests focus on demand estimation with heterogeneous consumers, vertical innovation in high-tech industry, and dynamic games with multiple plants. His past work in includes “Demand estimation for the personal computer:

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Productivity and Cyclicality in Semiconductors: Trends, Implications, and Questions - Report of a Symposium U.S. domestic market from 1995 to 1999.” Work currently in progress includes “Demand estimation for the microprocessor chip: 1993-2000,” and “Vertical innovation and the product cycle: the microprocessor industry.” CHARLES W. WESSNER Charles Wessner has served with three different federal agencies in positions of increasing responsibility, bringing a unique perspective on Washington policy developments and international cooperation to science and technology policy. He has extensive overseas experience, both with the OECD and as a senior officer with the U.S. Diplomatic Corps. Since joining the National Research Council, the operational arm of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, he has led several major studies, produced a rapidly growing list of publications, and works closely with the senior levels of the U.S. government. His policy interests focus on the linkages between science-based economic growth, new technology development and commercialization, including conditions to encourage entrepreneurship, and international investment and trade in high technology industries. His current portfolio of work centers on government measures to support the development of new technologies which have contributed to the productivity gains which characterize the New Economy. Dr. Wessner frequently lectures and testifies on United States technology policy and its role in the global economy. He has testified to Congressional Committees and before national commissions such as the U.S. Trade Deficit Review Commission and the Presidential Aerospace Offsets Commission. Dr. Wessner also lectures at leading universities in the United States such as Harvard, The College of William & Mary, and Georgetown, as well as foreign universities such as Nottingham, Potsdam, and Helsinki University of Technology. Dr. Wessner holds degrees in International Affairs from Lafayette College (Phi Beta Kappa) and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy where he obtained an M.A., an M.A.L.D. and a Ph.D. as a Shell Fellow.