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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the National Science Foundation under Contract No. ATM-0135923. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
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COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE U.S. CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY (CLIVAR) PROJECT OFFICE
DAVID KAROLY (Chair),
University of Oklahoma, Norman
JUDITH CURRY,
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
JAMES EDSON,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
LYNNE TALLEY,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, California
PAUL TRY,
Science and Technology Corporation, Silver Spring, Maryland
HASSAN VIRJI,
International START Secretariat, Washington, DC
NRC Staff
JULIE DEMUTH, Study Director
ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant
GERALDEAN HOURIGAN, Intern
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ROBERT J. SERAFIN (Chair),
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
FREDERICK R. ANDERSON,
McKenna Long and Aldridge LLP, Washington, D.C.
ROBERT C. BEARDSLEY,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
RAFAEL L. BRAS,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MARY ANNE CARROLL,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
WALTER F. DABBERDT,
Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado
KERRY A. EMANUEL,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
CASSANDRA G. FESEN,
Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire
JENNIFER A. LOGAN,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
WILLIAM J. RANDEL,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
ROGER M. WAKIMOTO,
University of California, Los Angeles
JOHN C. WYNGAARD,
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
Ex Officio Members
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR.,
University of Maryland, College Park
ERIC F. WOOD,
Princeton University, New Jersey
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Program Officer
JULIE DEMUTH, Program Officer
SHELDON DROBOT, Program Officer
ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Senior Program Assistant
ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant
DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Coordinator
PARIKHIT SINHA, Postdoctoral Fellow
ANDREAS SOHRE, Financial Associate
Preface
The World Climate Research Program (WCRP) is a major international research effort to develop scientific understanding of the physical climate system and climate processes needed to determine to what extent climate can be predicted and the extent of human influence on climate. CLIVAR is the project within the WCRP focusing on climate variability and predictability on time scales from seasons to centuries. In 2001, a National Research Council (NRC) study on U.S. contributions to the WCRP (NRC, 2001) recommended that there should be a national “focal point” for implementing each of the projects of the WCRP. Each focal point should serve as a point of contact and as a coordinating mechanism for domestic and international scientific implementation and cooperation both within the project and with other related projects.
The U.S. CLIVAR Project Office (USCPO) is the national focal point for CLIVAR activities in the United States. It was established in 2000, and in January 2004 the National Science Foundation commissioned the NRC to review the USCPO. A study committee was established under the guidance of the Climate Research Committee to undertake this review. The committee members’ collective expertise in various aspects of climate variability and predictability, combined with their individual experiences managing similar project offices and serving on scientific steering committees of U.S. and international projects, make them well suited to the task at hand (see Appendix E for the list of committee members and their biographies). The committee was asked to assess whether the USCPO is fulfilling its charge as established by the Interagency Group (i.e., DOE, NASA, NOAA, and NSF) by adequately conducting its core functions, which range from project development, project coordination, support, and communication. The specifics of the Statement of Task are included in Chapter 1 of the report.
The study was undertaken during June to October 2004. It is important to recognize that this study was neither a review of CLIVAR-related scientific research in the United States nor a review of agency funding for CLIVAR and related climate research in the United States. We have limited our review to the activities of the USCPO, as described in the Statement of Task. However, input provided to the committee often stretched beyond these bounds and sometimes raised issues related to the balance of U.S. CLIVAR science or agency funding of U.S. CLIVAR science. Because those aspects were considered to be outside the scope of this review, we have not addressed them in our findings and recommendations. In addition, although there is considerable overlap between CLIVAR science in the United States and the “Climate Variability and Change” research element of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 2003), we have not addressed in detail any potential overlap between the USCPO and the Climate Change Science Program Office.
We would like to thank the many people who provided valuable inputs to the study committee, as listed in Appendix C. In particular, we thank the staff of the USCPO, the members of the U.S. CLIVAR Interagency Group, and the co-chairs of the U.S. CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee for their assistance. In addition, we are very grateful to the more than 160 scientists who took the time to respond to an electronic questionnaire that was distributed as part of this study. The members of the study committee have a wealth of relevant experience, which helped to provide an important context for this review. I would like to thank the members of the committee and the NRC staff for their major contributions to this study.
David Karoly, Chair
Committee to Review the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Project Office
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Alan Betts, Atmospheric Research, Pittsford, Vermont
Randall Dole, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado
Larry Gates, University of California, Davis
William Large, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Roger Lukas, University of Hawaii, Manoa
Edward Urban, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Michael Prather, University of California, Irvine. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.