MEASURING INTERNATIONAL TRADE ON U.S. HIGHWAYS

Panel on Bureau of Transportation Statistics International Trade Traffic

Joel L. Horowitz and Tom Plewes, Editors

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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Measuring International Trade on U.S. Highways MEASURING INTERNATIONAL TRADE ON U.S. HIGHWAYS Panel on Bureau of Transportation Statistics International Trade Traffic Joel L. Horowitz and Tom Plewes, Editors Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Measuring International Trade on U.S. Highways THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. DTTS59-01-C-00402 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Transportation. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (Number SBR-0112521). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09519-0 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-54706-7 (PDF) Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2005). Measuring International Trade on U.S. Highways. Panel on Bureau of Transportation Statistics International Trade Traffic. J.L. Horowitz and T. Plewes, Editors. Committee on National Statistics. Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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Measuring International Trade on U.S. Highways THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Measuring International Trade on U.S. Highways PANEL ON BUREAU OF TRANSPORTATION STATISTICS INTERNATIONAL TRADE TRAFFIC JOEL L. HOROWITZ (Chair), Department of Economics, Northwestern University JAMES M. LEPKOWSKI, Institute for Social Research and Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, and Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland HANI MAHMASSANI, Department of Engineering and Maryland Transportation Initiative, University of Maryland AMELIA REGAN, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Graduate School of Management, University of California, Irvine BRUCE DAVID SPENCER, Department of Statistics, and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University RONALD TWEEDIE, independent consultant, Delmar, NY MICHAEL COHEN, Senior Program Officer TOM PLEWES, Senior Program Officer ALLISON SHOUP, Senior Program Assistant

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Measuring International Trade on U.S. Highways COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2004-2005 WILLIAM F. EDDY (Chair), Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM, Department of Economics, University of Maryland at College Park ROBERT BELL, Statistician, AT&T Laboratories-Research, Florham Park, NJ LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, University of Pennsylvania ROBERT M. GROVES, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan JOHN HALTIWANGER, Department of Economics, University of Maryland at College Park PAUL HOLLAND, Educational Testing Service, Princeton, NJ JOEL L. HOROWITZ, Department of Economics, Northwestern University DOUGLAS S. MASSEY, Department of Sociology and Public Policy, Princeton University VIJAYAN NAIR, Department of Statistics and Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor DARYL PREGIBON, Google Inc., New York, NY KENNETH PREWITT, School of Public Affairs, Columbia University LOUISE M. RYAN, Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director

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Measuring International Trade on U.S. Highways Acknowledgments The Committeeon National Statistics (CNSTAT) has a long-standing record of assisting federal statistical agencies in problems at the intersection of statistical methods and public policy. Recognizing this, Congress mandated that the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), as part of its evaluation of the development of estimates of the ton-miles and value-miles of international freight transported by highways in the United States, support a formal review of its work by the committee. Consequently, in 2003, CNSTAT organized a panel study to evaluate the estimates and the BTS evaluation of them (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2004). The panel included experts in statistical methods, data used in support of fund allocation formula programs, transportation data, emerging technologies for transportation data collection, and survey methodology. The panel met four times, including a workshop that was held November 20-21, 2003. The panel issued an interim report in February 2004, and this is its final report. The panel would like to thank the BTS staff for their support. In particular, we would like to thank Rick Kowalewski, acting BTS director, and Bill Bannister and Irwin Silberman for their valuable input. Ho-Ling Hwang and Paul Metaxatos presented valuable information at the panel’s first meeting in September of 2003. In November 2003, the panel held a workshop. At that workshop, the following people, including BTS staff

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Measuring International Trade on U.S. Highways and others, provided presentations that were tremendously important to our work: Irwin Silberman, Frank Southworth, Antonio Esteve, Catherine Lawson, M.J. Fiocco, Paul Ciannavei, Rob Tardif, Rolf Schmidt, John Fowler, Bill Davie, Harvey Monk, and Dan Melnick. Also, Richard Easley provided a report on emerging technologies for measuring the weight, value, and distance traveled for freight carried by highway that the panel utilized extensively in its section of the report on this topic. Thanks are also owed to CNSTAT staff members who supported the work of the panel. Tom Plewes served as the study director, bringing his outstanding management skills to the task of organizing informative meetings, assembling relevant background materials to inform the panel, and producing the panel’s interim report. Allison Shoup, senior program assistant, provided excellent logistical support to the panel. Michael Cohen, senior program officer, provided invaluable technical assistance in drafting the final report and guiding it through the National Academies review process. Eugenia Grohman, associate director for reports of the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, ably edited the report. Finally, it was a pleasure to work with the panel members, who individually and as a group brought substantial expertise and wisdom to the task. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Kenneth D. Boyer, Department of Economics, Michigan State University; James R. Chromy, Statistics Research Division, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC; Jose Holguin-Veras, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY; Steven R. Kale, Economics, Oregon Department of Transportation, Salem, OR; Catherine T. Lawson, Geography and Planning Department, University at Albany, Albany, NY; Daniel McCaffrey, Education Group, RAND, Pittsburgh, PA; Michael D. Meyer, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology,

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Measuring International Trade on U.S. Highways Atlanta, GA; and Alan M. Zaslavsky, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert Groves, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. Joel L. Horowitz, Chair Panel on BTS International Trade Traffic

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Measuring International Trade on U.S. Highways Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   3 2   BTS REPORT: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS   6 3   PANEL FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS: DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY   15 4   DATA SOURCES, MODELS USED, AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES   20     REFERENCES   37     APPENDIXES     A   Agenda for Open Sessions   39 B   Workshop Agenda   41 C   Workshop Presenters and Topics   43 D   Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff   47

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