TABLE 2-1 Population of Young People by Region

Region

Total Population (millions)

Population Ages 10-24

1980

2005

2030

1980

2005

2030

WORLD

4,435

6,454

8,130

1,336

1,755

1,875

More Developed Regions

1,083

1,209

1,242

263

237

201

Less Developed Regions

3,352

5,245

6,888

1,072

1,518

1,673

Least Developed Regions

400

753

1,257

127

246

389

Africa

470

888

1,398

147

294

435

Eastern

144

282

462

45

96

152

Middle

53

106

191

16

35

64

Northern

111

190

267

35

60

68

Southern

33

52

49

11

17

14

Western

128

257

429

40

86

137

Asia (excluding Japan)

2,515

3,790

4,766

807

1,060

1,075

Easterna

1,061

1,404

1,538

346

338

282

South-central

981

1,615

2,192

307

493

549

South-eastern

358

558

711

117

165

162

Western

115

213

324

36

64

83

Latin America and the Caribbean

361

558

711

117

161

159

The Caribbean

29

39

45

9

11

10

Central America

90

147

194

30

45

45

South America

242

372

472

77

105

104

Oceaniab

5

9

13

1

3

3

aExcludes Japan.

bExcludes Australia and New Zealand.

NOTE: Population estimates for 2005 and projections for 2030 are for United Nations Medium Variant.

SOURCE: United Nations (2003d).

most of Asia and Latin America and parts of Africa. Using Demographic Health Survey (DHS) data from 52 developing countries, Pullum and Zellner (2000) estimated the average number of living siblings ages 0-15 for children ages 0-15 according to total fertility rates. They found a steady decline in the mean number of siblings with declining total fertility rates from 5 to 2 children per woman as well as a rise in the percentage of children with no siblings from 9 to 20 percent over the same range (see Table 2-3). Declines in sibship size reflect parental decisions to emphasize child quality over child quantity, in the context of rapid urbanization and changing economic opportunities. This change can result in increased gains in familial (and ultimately societal) investments in child health and education, with important implications for the life chances of young people, particularly girls, who may benefit from an increasing share of family income as average family size declines (Lloyd, 1994; Kelley, 1996).



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