climate be affected if society takes no further policy steps to stem emissions and allows the driving forces behind emissions to take their course? It appears that none of the names are fully satisfactory and without ambiguities (Nakićenović et al., 2000). For example, “business as usual” does not convey that scenarios address economic and technology changes over a century time frame. Noninterventionist, the currently preferred term, also requires clarification because society is currently taking some steps, such as vehicular mileage standards and hybrid car marketing and research, that could be interpreted as climate policy.
Emissions scenarios that take account of policy intervention include those in which greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized and cost-benefit scenarios. Stabilization scenarios are associated with atmospheric targets that policy makers often consider as long-term goals (IPCC, 1996;