Global Warming Potentials and Greenhouse Gas Equivalence Models

Many climate policy questions require comparing the climate change effects of different greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other forcings. Such comparisons are integral to the formulation of climate treaties and the assessment of progress toward greenhouse gas emissions reductions. For example, if one party to a climate target achieves emissions reductions in CO2, and another party focuses on CH4, some metric is needed to compare these reductions in order to assess overall progress toward the target.

Policy analysts have sought a simple basis for quantitatively comparing the radiative consequences of emissions of different gases. The concept of global warming potential (GWP) was developed to address this need. GWPs compare the integrated radiative impact of a one time-unit of emissions of greenhouse gas X to the integrated radiative forcing impact of a one time-unit of CO2 emissions (IPCC, 2001). Mathematically, GWP is expressed as

(1-5)

where TH is the time horizon over which the calculation is considered and ax is the radiative efficiency of gas X, or the increase in radiative forcing for a unit increase in the atmospheric abundance of the substance. This radiative efficiency is typically expressed in units of W m−2 kg−1. The parameter X(t) is the time decay profile for the gas following its release into the atmosphere. The corresponding factors for CO2, the reference gas, are in the denominator. Scaling the radiative impact of other forcings by that of CO2 makes it easier to compare forcings quantitatively to each other, but this approach has been criticized because it depends on how well the radiative impact of CO2 is understood. A change in the denominator of Equation 1-5 requires that the whole set of GWPs be revised, potentially introducing confusion.

The radiative forcing formulas (e.g., Equation 1-4) are used in the calculation of the efficiency term ax. The marginal increase in radiative forcing can be calculated as the first derivative of the radiative forcing with respect to concentration. For low-concentration gases, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), whose radiative forcing increases linearly with concentration, this derivative is a constant. For more abundant gases such as CO2, the derivative—and marginal radiative forcing response—depends on the background atmospheric concentration at the time of the hypothetical pulse



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement