AN ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL HEALTH EFFECTS FROM EXPOSURE TO PAVE PAWS LOW-LEVEL PHASED-ARRAY RADIOFREQUENCY ENERGY

Committee to Assess Potential Health Effects from Exposures to PAVE PAWS Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy

Board on Radiation Effects Research

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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An Assessment of Potential Health Effects from Exposure to Pave Paws Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy AN ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL HEALTH EFFECTS FROM EXPOSURE TO PAVE PAWS LOW-LEVEL PHASED-ARRAY RADIOFREQUENCY ENERGY Committee to Assess Potential Health Effects from Exposures to PAVE PAWS Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy Board on Radiation Effects Research Division on Earth and Life Studies NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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An Assessment of Potential Health Effects from Exposure to Pave Paws Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by contract F05604-01-C-9000, between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Air Force. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09309-0 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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An Assessment of Potential Health Effects from Exposure to Pave Paws Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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An Assessment of Potential Health Effects from Exposure to Pave Paws Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy COMMITTEE TO ASSESS POTENTIAL HEALTH EFFECTS FROM EXPOSURES TO PAVE PAWS LOW-LEVEL PHASED-ARRAY RADIOFREQUENCY ENERGY FRANK S. BARNES (Chairman), University of Colorado, Boulder, CO ROBERT C. HANSEN (Vice-Chairman), R. C. Hansen, Inc., Tarzana, CA LARRY E. ANDERSON, Battelle, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, Richland, WA GRAHAM A. COLDITZ, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA FRANCESCA DOMINICI, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD KENNETH J. McLEOD, State University of New York, Binghamton, NY KEITH D. PAULSEN, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH LESLIE L. ROBISON, University of Minnesota Cancer Center, Minneapolis, MN SUSAN L. SANTOS, University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey School of Public Health and East Orange New Jersey Veterans Administration Medical Center War Related Illness and Injury Study Center, Medford, MA JAN A. J. STOLWIJK, Yale University School of Medicine (emeritus), Beltsville, MD GAYLE E. WOLOSCHAK, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL Consultant DAVID R. CHALLONER, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL National Research Council Staff RICK JOSTES, Study Director EVAN B. DOUPLE, BRER Director COURTNEY GIBBS, Program Assistant DORIS E. TAYLOR, Staff Assistant

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An Assessment of Potential Health Effects from Exposure to Pave Paws Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy BOARD ON RADIATION EFFECTS RESEARCH S. JAMES ADELSTEIN (Chairman), Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA HAROLD L. BECK, Department of Energy Environmental Laboratory (Retired), New York, NY JOEL S. BEDFORD, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO JAMES E. CLEAVER, University of California San Francisco Cancer Center, San Francisco, CA SARAH C. DARBY, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom SHARON L. DUNWOODY, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI C. CLIFTON LING, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada THEODORE L. PHILLIPS, University of California, San Francisco, CA ANDREW M. SESSLER, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA JOHN C. VILLFORTH, Food and Drug Law Institute (Retired), Derwood, MD PAUL L. ZEIMER, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN EDWARD R. EPP (Board Liaison to the Committee), Massachusetts General Hospital (Retired), Boston, MA National Research Council Staff EVAN B. DOUPLE, Director, Board on Radiation Effects Research ISAF AL-NABULSI, Senior Program Officer RICK JOSTES, Senior Program Officer CATHERINE S. BERKLEY, Administrative Associate DORIS E. TAYLOR, Staff Assistant COURTNEY GIBBS, Program Assistant

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An Assessment of Potential Health Effects from Exposure to Pave Paws Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy Preface In a January 11, 2001, letter from Senator Edward M. Kennedy to the Secretary of the Air Force, F. Whitten Peters, Senator Kennedy asked that the Air Force fund an independent study through the National Research Council of the National Academies “to examine the health effects of the PAVE PAWS system.” Kennedy further requested that “this follow-on study (to the previous 1979 National Research Council report) should address, at a minimum, the effects, if any, of the PAVE PAWS radar over the past two decades and should also examine the validity of using continuous-wave and pulsed non-ionizing radiation biological-effects data as surrogates for phased-array non-ionizing radiation biological effects data.” The offices of Senators Kennedy and Kerry, and Congressman Delehunt, participated in discussions with the Air Force and the National Research Council to establish the task that is addressed by this committee in this report. A committee composed of individuals with engineering, biology, epidemiology, risk communication, and biostatistics expertise was established by the National Research Council to address the task. The committee heard from interested citizens in a public forum held in Sandwich, MA on May 28, 2002. In additional open sessions of the committee, the committee gathered information from the Air Force, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, the PAVE PAWS Public Health Steering Group, various experts from universities and other institutions, and the Cape Cod public. The committee also evaluated information provided to the committee by interested parties, surveyed the scientific literature, and conducted a preliminary statistical correlation analysis to evaluate the potential for biological and health effects from the PAVE PAWS radar. A letter report was published providing

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An Assessment of Potential Health Effects from Exposure to Pave Paws Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy advice regarding the Air Force waveform measurement effort and a second interim letter report was published that commented on the adequacy, at that time, of available information and outlined the general characteristics of information that the committee deemed useful in its evaluation of the potential biological and health effects of the PAVE PAWS radar. This report is an update of a prior 1979 National Research Council report (Analysis of the Exposure Levels and Potential Biologic Effects of the PAVE PAWS Radar System) and addresses the following: The applicability of, and the level of uncertainty associated with, using data derived from cell, animal, and epidemiological studies employing pulsed and continuous-wave exposure for evaluation of potential adverse health effects following phased-array exposures; The extent of the exposure of the public to electromagnetic energy from the PAVE PAWS system; Potential biological and health effects of the PAVE PAWS Radar System; and Recommendations for appropriate follow-on study design issues, including the strengths and limitations of the approaches suggested and the potential value of the proposed work. Frank S. Barnes, Ph.D. Chair

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An Assessment of Potential Health Effects from Exposure to Pave Paws Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by persons chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purposes of this review are to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards of objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following for their participation in the review of this report: Thomas F. Budinger, University of California, Berkeley, CA David G. Hoel, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC Daniel Krewski, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada Steven C. Lewis, University of Texas, Dallas, TX Frank Prato, St. Joseph’s Health Centre, London, Canada Andrew M. Sessler, E.O. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA Zenon Sienkiewicz, National Radiological Protection Board, Chilton, United Kingdom Bernard Veyret, University of Bordeaux, Pessac Cedex, France Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by John F. Ahearne, Sigma Xi and Duke

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An Assessment of Potential Health Effects from Exposure to Pave Paws Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy University, Research Triangle Park, NC, and Richard B. Setlow, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Research Council.

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An Assessment of Potential Health Effects from Exposure to Pave Paws Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy Acknowledgments The committee would like to thank Dr. Richard Albanese for directing the committee’s attention to aspects of the PAVE PAWS waveform that merited investigation. Richard and Sharon Judge, Charles Kleecamp, Ron Cronin, Jim Tomlin, and Victor Vyssotsky provided many insightful comments to the committee. We thank the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, the PAVE PAWS Public Health Steering Group, the Coalition to Operate PAVE PAWS Safely, and the U.S. Air Force for providing information to the committee. We would also like to thank the following speakers at committee information-gathering sessions: Stephen Cleary, Stetson Hall, Robert S. Knorr, Joseph Roti-Roti, Kurt Oughstun, Thomas Roberts, Daniel Wartenberg, Robert Torres, and Donald McLemore. The committee is especially indebted to the conscientious support and guidance provided by the study director, Rick Jostes. He sought and provided important information from a number of sources and he diligently kept the committee focused on its timeline and its charge. Dr. Jostes was well assisted in the administration of the committee’s work by Courtney Gibbs and Doris Taylor. Courtney Slack, a Christine Mirzayan Science & Technology Policy Graduate Fellow, provided additional valuable assistance to NRC staff.

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An Assessment of Potential Health Effects from Exposure to Pave Paws Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy Contents     PUBLIC SUMMARY   1     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   9      Introduction,   9      Task for the Report,   10      Applicability of Using Non-Phased-Array Data,   10      Radar Characteristics,   11      Uncertainties Involved in Using Non-Phased-Array Data for Evaluation of Potential Adverse Health Effects Following Phased-Array Exposures,   11      Biology,   13      Epidemiology,   14      Recommendations,   15 1   INTRODUCTION   18      History of the Facility,   18      Origin of Present Study,   21      Statement of Task,   22      Information Available to This Committee,   23      Uncertainties Associated with the Evaluation of PAVE PAWS Health Effects,   23 2   ASSESSMENT OF CLASSIFIED RESEARCH RELEVANT TO PAVE PAWS   26      Introduction   26

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An Assessment of Potential Health Effects from Exposure to Pave Paws Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy      Visit Details,   26      Conclusions and Findings,   29 3   PHYSICAL MECHANISMS FOR RF EFFECTS ON BIOLOGICAL SYSTEMS   31      Summary,   35 4   EXPOSURE LEVELS   37      Overview,   37      PAVE PAWS Operation,   37      The Beam Characteristics,   38      PAVE PAWS Power-Density Estimates and Measurements,   40      Population Exposure to Other RF Sources,   48      Summary of PAVE PAWS Exposure Data,   51 5   PAVE PAWS EXPOSURE CONDITIONS   53      Exposure Characteristics,   53      Waveform Decay,   55      Precursors,   68      Summary,   76     Annex 5-1:   Dispersion in Biological Tissues,   78     Annex 5-2:   Papers on Precursor Measurements,   78     Annex 5-3:   Papers on Precursor Calculations,   82     Annex 5-4:   Related Papers on Precursors,   88     Annex 5-5:   Papers by Professor Oughstun and Colleagues,   90 6   EVIDENCE OF BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF RF EXPOSURE RELEVANT TO PAVE PAWS RADAR SYSTEM   94      Introduction,   94      Literature Review,   97      Indirect Molecular Effects,   100      Phenotypic Responses,   101      Summary And Conclusions,   105 7   ANIMAL AND HUMAN STUDIES ADDRESSING HEALTH EFFECTS   110      Introduction,   110      Cancer—Human Studies,   111      Cancer—Studies In Animal Models,   111      Human Behavioral Studies,   114      Animal Behavior,   115      Other Physiological Studies,   116

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An Assessment of Potential Health Effects from Exposure to Pave Paws Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy      Immune- and Endocrine-Function Studies,   119      Teratology, Reproduction, and Development,   120      In Vivo Studies: Conclusions,   123 8   EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES OF THE POSSIBLE ADVERSE HEALTH EFFECTS OF PULSED RADAR EMISSIONS   133      Exposures at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow,   133      Exposures at the MIT Radiation Laboratory,   134      Two Studies of a U.S. Navy Cohort,   134      Radio Location Station at Skrunda,   135      Polish Military Studies,   136      Summary,   137 9   HEALTH CONSIDERATIONS IN THE CAPE COD POPULATION   139      Introduction,   139      Issues in Epidemiologic Research,   140      Health on Cape Cod,   142      Massachusetts Military Reservation,   147      Sample Size and Statistical Power to Investigate Health Risks of the PAVE PAWS Radar,   154      Statistical Analyses,   157      Exposure Assessment Study,   158      Geographic Correlation Study,   169      Summary,   172     Annex 9-1:   Data Sources,   174     Annex 9-2:   GeoBugs Code,   175 10   SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   176      Radar Characteristics,   176      Exposure Levels,   177      Biology,   177      Epidemiology,   180     APPENDIXES     A   INTERIM LETTER REPORT   183 B   ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS   189     COMMITTEE BIOSKETCHES   194

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An Assessment of Potential Health Effects from Exposure to Pave Paws Low-Level Phased-Array Radiofrequency Energy Map of Cape Cod in Massachusetts showing the “Upper Cape” as a shaded area. The Upper Cape is the portion of the Cape which is closest to the mainland and is commonly taken to extend to Barnstable. The location of the PAVE PAWS radar is indicated by the solid triangle near the town of Sagamore. The dashed lines extending from the radar indicate the approximate boundaries of the main beam when the radar is scanning (radar beam projects angled upward and to the East). From http://www.wordiq.com/definition/Cape_Codon10/27/2004.