FIGURE D-1 The potential research workforce.

annual, virtually complete census of doctoral graduates in the United States.2 Data on foreign-trained Ph.Ds in the United States were obtained from the National Survey of College Graduates—rounds of this survey were conducted in 1993, 1995, 1997, and 1999, following up the migrants originally identified in the 1990 census. For clinical M.D.s, data were gleaned from the national roster of medical school faculty from the American Association of Medical Colleges (AAMC). These AAMC data allow some inferences about numbers of researchers, but projections are generally not possible. Therefore issues relating to this group are discussed further below.


The active workforce of Ph.D. and M.D. researchers includes all those employed in research. The potential workforce is broader and includes those unemployed, those neither employed nor looking for work (provided they are not retired), and those with jobs outside science (see Figure D-1). Some proportion of each of these groups returns to the active research workforce every year.

To avoid confusion, the term “employed” is used instead of “active workforce” and refers to those employed in science jobs. Those employed in nonscience jobs are not counted in the employed group but are referred to as being outside science. The unemployed and those not in the labor force are referred to together as “not working” and combined with those outside science as “not active” in research.

The potential workforce is incremented—in this model on an annual basis—by entering graduates and migrants with


See Appendix D in Addressing the Nation’s Changing Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists (National Research Council 2000a) for more details on these surveys.

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