• Functionality on penetration, especially as influenced by target heterogeneity and its uncertainty (e.g., local geology, or complex structures in urban areas); and

  • Estimates of the source, transport, and influence on populations of the effects of a nuclear explosion; the estimates are highly variable (by factors of up to ~101 to 103, depending on assumptions).

Current analytical tools have an overall propagated uncertainty of about one order of magnitude (factor of 10) in the estimated casualties. This conclusion is based both on evaluation of the underlying calculations (source terms, transport models, grid resolution, and so on) and their experimental validation and on a review of the variability in results that can be obtained for different scenarios when considering plausible ranges in parameters.

NOTE

1.  

The presence of an unstemmed penetration hole ensures massive venting.



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