targets, with particular attention to target destruction, tools to calculate damage, and the uncertainties involved.

Chapter 5 discusses collateral effects of the fallout from air, surface, and underground bursts, as well as two computer programs that are in wide use to model the effects of release of hazardous chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear materials into the atmosphere and their effects on civilian and military populations. The computer programs discussed are the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability code (HPAC) developed by DTRA and its predecessor agencies and those used by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory—the NUKE code from Sandia National Laboratories to model the prompt effects of a nuclear explosion and the K-Division Defense Nuclear Agency Fallout Code (KDFOC) to analyze the spread of radioactivity. Also discussed are the uncertainties involved in the use of computer modeling and simulation.

Chapter 6 addresses the health and environmental effects of nuclear explosions. Computer modeling and simulation calculations are presented for notional representative targets attacked with weapons over a range of yields. In addition, health effects of attacks on chemical and biological weapons facilities are addressed.

Chapter 7 discusses conventional high-explosive weapons, both current and under development for direct or indirect attack, to support the emerging Global Strike Mission.

Chapter 8 discusses sources of uncertainty—factors to which the results of calculations such as those discussed in Chapter 6 are most sensitive—and compares the variations in effects due to uncertainty with the variations expected from substituting an EPW for a surface burst. It addresses effects of uncertainty regarding target location, geology, accuracy of delivery, ability of a weapon to function, and model inputs, as well as effects of uncertainty in the models themselves and in analytical tools.

Chapter 9 presents the committee’s conclusions.

The four appendixes provide supplemental and study-process-related information.



Department of Defense. 2002. Nuclear Posture Review (U), Washington, D.C. (Classified).


National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2003 (House Rpt. 107-772, sec. 3146, P.L. 107-314).


National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1994 (P.L. 103-160, 107 Stat. 1547).

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