B
Agendas

KECK CENTER OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES WASHINGTON, D.C.

Tuesday, February 17, 2004

Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only

0830

CONVENE—Welcome, Opening Remarks, Introductions

John Ahearne, Committee Chair

Peter Blair, Executive Director, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences (DEPS)

Charles Draper, Acting Director, Naval Studies Board (NSB)

James Killian, Study Director

0900

COMPOSITION AND BALANCE DISCUSSION

Dennis Chamot, Associate Executive Director, DEPS

Data-Gathering Meeting Not Open to the Public: Classified Discussion

1045

INTRODUCTION OF ATTENDEES AND AGENDA OUTLINE

John Ahearne, Committee Chair

Milton Minneman, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (USD (AT&L))/Defense Systems

LTC Jeffrey Davis, USA, Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

1100

DOD VIEWPOINT—The New Triad, Hard and Deeply Buried Targets, Key Performance Parameters, Summer 2002 Assessment, Need for Nuclear Earth-Penetrating Weapons

Gregory Hulcher, Special Assistant to the Director, USD (AT&L)/Defense Systems

MAJ Mark Wittig, USA, Nuclear Weapons Employment Analyst, Advanced Weapons Concept Team, Strategic Studies and Analysis Branch, U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM)



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Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons B Agendas KECK CENTER OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES WASHINGTON, D.C. Tuesday, February 17, 2004 Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only 0830 CONVENE—Welcome, Opening Remarks, Introductions John Ahearne, Committee Chair Peter Blair, Executive Director, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences (DEPS) Charles Draper, Acting Director, Naval Studies Board (NSB) James Killian, Study Director 0900 COMPOSITION AND BALANCE DISCUSSION Dennis Chamot, Associate Executive Director, DEPS Data-Gathering Meeting Not Open to the Public: Classified Discussion 1045 INTRODUCTION OF ATTENDEES AND AGENDA OUTLINE John Ahearne, Committee Chair Milton Minneman, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (USD (AT&L))/Defense Systems LTC Jeffrey Davis, USA, Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) 1100 DOD VIEWPOINT—The New Triad, Hard and Deeply Buried Targets, Key Performance Parameters, Summer 2002 Assessment, Need for Nuclear Earth-Penetrating Weapons Gregory Hulcher, Special Assistant to the Director, USD (AT&L)/Defense Systems MAJ Mark Wittig, USA, Nuclear Weapons Employment Analyst, Advanced Weapons Concept Team, Strategic Studies and Analysis Branch, U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM)

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Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons 1230 DOE VIEWPOINT—Stockpile Maintenance, Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (RNEP) Relationship David Crandall, Assistant Deputy Administrator for Research, Development, and Simulation, DOE, NNSA 1300 TARGET DEFEAT ASSESSMENT Milton Minneman, USD (AT&L)/Defense Systems MAJ Mark Wittig, USA, Nuclear Weapons Employment Analyst, Advanced Weapons Concept Team, Strategic Studies and Analysis Branch, USSTRATCOM Michael Giltrud, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) 1400 ROBUST NUCLEAR EARTH PENETRATOR WEAPON KEY PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS AND DESIGN FEASIBILITY STUDY Frank Fairchild, U.S. Air Force Nuclear Weapons and Counterproliferation Agency R. Glenn Bell, Office of Stockpile Assessment and Certification, DOE 1515 TARGET VULNERABILITY TO CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS Michael Giltrud, DTRA 1600 ADDITIONAL QUESTION AND ANSWER PERIOD Moderator: John Ahearne, Committee Chair Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only 1630 COMMITTEE DISCUSSION—Day One Summary and Impressions Moderator: John Ahearne, Committee Chair 1730 END SESSION Wednesday, February 18, 2004 Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only 0830 CONVENE—Opening Remarks, Committee Discussion, Study Plans, Report Deliberations Moderator: John Ahearne, Committee Chair Data-Gathering Meeting Not Open to the Public: Classified Discussion 0845 TARGET VULNERABILITY TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS Michael Giltrud, DTRA 0930 FALLOUT CALCULATION METHODOLOGY Donald Linger, DTRA 1030 WEAPON OUTPUT AND ENVIRONMENTS Thomas Thomson, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only 1115 COMMITTEE DISCUSSION—Continue Committee Discussion, Study Plans, Report Deliberations Moderator: John Ahearne, Committee Chair 1500 ADJOURN

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Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO Tuesday, March 23, 2004 Data-Gathering Meeting Not Open to the Public: Classified Discussion (Secret) 0800 WELCOME, LABORATORY OVERVIEW John H. Stichman, Vice President, Weapons Systems Division, Sandia National Laboratories 0815 EFFECTS OF FALLOUT AND OTHER RADIOACTIVE MATERIAL Fred A. Mettler, M.D., New Mexico Veterans Administration Health Care System 0915 CONVENTIONAL HIGH EXPLOSIVES EARTH-PENETRATOR WEAPONS C. Wayne Young, Applied Research Associates, Inc. 1000 LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF FALLOUT Dana Powers, Sandia National Laboratories 1100 B-61 MODIFICATION REQUIREMENTS AND TESTING Kevin Eklund, Distinguished Member, Technical Staff, Sandia National Laboratories 1300 NUCLEAR EARTH-PENETRATOR WEAPON EFFECTIVENESS AND EFFECTS—Joint Laboratory Perspective Jon Rogers, Manager, National Security Studies Department, Sandia National Laboratories Rodman R. Linn, Los Alamos National Laboratory Ted F. Harvey, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1445 B-61/B-83 RNEP BRIEFING Alfredo McDonald, Manager, B-83 and Penetrator Systems Engineering, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only 1630 IMPRESSIONS FROM DAY ONE Moderator: John Ahearne, Committee Chair DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY KIRTLAND AIR FORCE BASE, NEW MEXICO Wednesday, March 24, 2004 Data-Gathering Meeting Not Open to the Public: Classified Discussion 0800 AGENT DEFEAT Donald Linger, Deputy for Test and Technology, DTRA 0850 OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM GROUND TRUTH Thomas Lutton, Senior Scientist, DTRA Robert Delisle, Contractor, DTRA

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Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons 1000 DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY OPERATIONAL HAZARD PREDICTION CODE—Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) Todd Hann, Deputy for Consequence Assessment Branch, DTRA 1100 SUBSTANTIAL SHAPED CHARGE PROCEEDING NUCLEAR EARTH-PENETRATOR WEAPON Thomas Togami, Advanced and Exploratory Systems Department, Sandia National Laboratories Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only 1230 COMPOSITION AND BALANCE DISCUSSION—Update to Meeting One 1300 COMMITTEE DELIBERATIONS; SUMMARY DISCUSSION Moderator: John Ahearne, Committee Chair 1500 ADJOURN KECK CENTER OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES WASHINGTON, D.C. Tuesday, April 27, 2004 Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only 0755 CONVENE—Welcome, Opening Remarks, Introductions John Ahearne, Committee Chair James Killian, Study Director Data-Gathering Session Not Open to the Public: Classified Discussion 0800 SECOND-HAND THOUGHTS ON TARGETING BIOLOGICAL AGENTS David R. Franz, Chief Biological Scientist, Midwest Research Institute Data-Gathering Session Open to the Public: Unclassified Discussion 0930 EARTH-PENETRATING NUCLEAR WEAPONS—TARGET DAMAGE AND FALLOUT Thomas B. Cochran, Director, Nuclear Programs, Natural Resources Defense Council 1000 EFFECTIVENESS OF EARTH-PENETRATING WEAPONS FOR “BUNKER BUSTING” AND AGENT DEFEAT Robert W. Nelson, Senior Fellow, Science and Technology, Council on Foreign Relations 1030 AGENT DEFEAT CALCULATIONS Michael A. Levi, Science and Technology Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies, Brookings Institution 1115 CONSEQUENCES OF THE JAPANESE ATOMIC BOMBINGS Mortimer L. Mendelsohn, Senior Scientist, Biology and Biotechnology Research Program, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

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Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons Data-Gathering Session Not Open to the Public: Classified Discussion 1300 CONVENTIONAL SOURCES—Target Release and Agent Defeat Todd H. Pierce, Science Applications International Corporation 1345 UNCERTAINTIES IN CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL SOURCE TERM MODELS FOR NUCLEAR ATTACKS ON WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION FACILITIES Philip A. Hookham, Titan Corporation 1445 FIRST PRINCIPLES MODELING OF CLOUD RISE AND DISPERSION David P. Bacon, Science Applications International Corporation R. Ian Sykes, Titan Corporation 1615 FALLOUT PHENOMENOLOGY IN HPAC Joseph T. McGahan, Science Applications International Corporation Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only 1715 COMMITTEE DELIBERATIONS—Day One Summary and Impressions Moderator: John Ahearne, Committee Chair 1730 END SESSION Wednesday, April 28, 2004 Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only 0755 CONVENE—Welcome, Opening Remarks, Introductions John Ahearne, Committee Chair James Killian, Study Director Data-Gathering Session Open to the Public: Unclassified Discussion 0800 MEETING WITH CONGRESSIONAL STAFF Data-Gathering Session Not Open to the Public: Classified Discussion 0915 AGENT DEFEAT CAPABILITY AND ASSOCIATED COLLATERAL DAMAGE OF CONVENTIONAL AND NUCLEAR WARHEADS Hans W. Kruger, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1015 AGENT DEFEAT WEAPON FINDINGS/LESSONS LEARNED Michael A. Martinez, Chief, Advanced Technology Division, Air Force Nuclear Weapons and Counterproliferation Agency 1130 RESULTS OF HAZARD PREDICTION ANALYSIS CODE SAMPLE CALCULATIONS Michael Phillips, Contractor, DTRA 1300 RESULTS OF K DIVISION FALLOUT CODE/LAGRANGIAN OPERATIONAL DISPERSION INTEGRATOR (KDFOC/LODI) SAMPLE CALCULATIONS Ted F. Harvey, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

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Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only 1415 COMMITTEE DELIBERATIONS—Study Plans, Report Deliberations Moderator: John Ahearne, Committee Chair 1600 ADJOURN KECK CENTER OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES WASHINGTON, D.C. Monday, May 17, 2004 Data-Gathering Session Not Open to the Public: Classified Discussion 0830 CONVENE—Welcome, Opening Remarks, Introductions John Ahearne, Committee Chair James Killian, Study Director 0835 THE NEED FOR RNEP Gregory Hulcher, Special Assistant to the Director, USD (AT&L))/Defense Systems 0905 EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR EARTH-PENETRATOR WEAPONS Bryan Fearey, Los Alamos National Laboratory John St. Ledger, Los Alamos National Laboratory Data-Gathering Session Open to the Public: Unclassified Discussion 1000 CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE PERSPECTIVE Jonathan Medalia, Congressional Research Service 1045 HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS Stephen Morse, Associate Director for Science, Bio-Terrorism, Preparedness and Response Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 1130 RNEP Keith Payne, National Institute for Public Policy Data-Gathering Session Not Open to the Public: Classified Discussion 1300 COLLATERAL RISKS FROM ATTACKS ON CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL FACILITIES Jeffrey Grotte, Deputy Director, Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division, Institute for Defense Analyses 1345 BATTLEFIELD OPERATIONS IN A NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL, AND CHEMICAL (NBC) ENVIRONMENT COL Richard Hill, USA, Operations Division Chief, Nuclear Division, U.S. Army Nuclear and Chemical Agency Martin Moakler, Physical Scientist, U.S. Army Nuclear and Chemical Agency 1445 HARD TARGET DEFEAT Donald Linger, Deputy for Test and Technology, DTRA 1530 HPAC/ANRAC COMPUTER RUNS DISCUSSION Todd Hann, DTRA

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Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons 1630 CONVENTIONAL PENETRATORS Barry Hannah, Branch Head Reentry Systems, Navy Strategic Systems Programs Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only 1700 COMMITTEE DELIBERATIONS—Day One Summary and Impressions, Outline and Writing Assignments Status Moderator: John Ahearne, Committee Chair 1900 COMMITTEE DELIBERATIONS—Discuss Preliminary Findings and Recommendations Moderator: John Ahearne, Committee Chair 2100 END SESSION Tuesday, May 18, 2004 Data-Gathering Session Not Open to the Public: Classified Discussion 0800 CONVENE—Welcome, Opening Remarks, Introductions John Ahearne, Committee Chair James Killian, Study Director 0805 HEALTH EFFECTS OF CHEMICAL WARFARE AGENTS David Moore, Vice President of Medical Technology, Battelle Memorial Institute 0905 BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AEROSOLIZED—Viable vs. Respirable Martin Bagley, DTRA Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only 1000 COMMITTEE DELIBERATIONS—Preparation for Woods Hole Meeting John Ahearne, Committee Chair James Killian, Study Director 1200 ADJOURN J. ERIK JONSSON WOODS HOLE CENTER WOODS HOLE, MASSACHUSETTS Monday, June 21, 2004 Data-Gathering Session Not Open to the Public: Classified Discussion 0830 CONVENE—Welcome, Opening Remarks, Introductions John Ahearne, Committee Chair James Killian, Study Director 0835 NUCLEAR EVENT CALCULATIONS Todd Hann, DTRA

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Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only 1300 REPORT DISCUSSION AND DRAFTING Moderator: John Ahearne, Committee Chair 1700 END SESSION Tuesday Through Thursday, June 22-24, 2004 Closed Session: Committee Members and NRC Staff Only 0830 CONVENE—Plans for the Day John Ahearne, Committee Chair James Killian, Study Director 0835 REPORT DISCUSSION AND DRAFTING Moderator: John Ahearne, Committee Chair 1300 REPORT DISCUSSION AND DRAFTING (CONTINUED) Moderator: John Ahearne, Committee Chair 1700 END SESSION