4

 

EFFECTIVENESS OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AGAINST HARD AND DEEPLY BURIED TARGETS

 

30

   

 Target Destruction,

 

30

   

 Target Damage Probability Estimates,

 

39

   

 Attachment 4.1: Probability of Damage Calculator,

 

42

   

 Attachment 4.2: Influence of Target Hardness and Weapons Accuracy,

 

43

   

 Notes,

 

50

5

 

FALLOUT AND TOOLS FOR CALCULATING EFFECTS OF RELEASE OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

 

52

   

 Nuclear Bursts and Fallout Overview,

 

52

   

 Calculating the Effects of Release of Hazardous Materials,

 

58

   

 Tools to Estimate Casualties and Other Effects,

 

59

   

 Sources of Uncertainty Affecting Model Predictions,

 

61

   

 Suggestions for Improving Tools,

 

64

   

 Attachment 5.1: Elements of Defense Threat Reduction Agency Codes and Data,

 

64

   

 Notes,

 

72

6

 

HUMAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS

 

73

   

 Effects on Humans,

 

73

   

 Health Effects from Attacks on Facilities for Storing and Producing Nuclear Weapons and Radioactive Material,

 

91

   

 Environmental Effects,

 

92

   

 Effects of Attacks on Chemical and Biological Weapons Facilities,

 

93

   

 Notes,

 

95

7

 

CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS

 

99

   

 Notes,

 

102

8

 

UNCERTAINTY IN ESTIMATES OF EFFECTS

 

103

   

 Sources of Uncertainty,

 

104

   

 Measures of Uncertainty: Sensitivity, Precision, and Accuracy,

 

106

   

 Summary,

 

108

   

 Notes,

 

109

9

 

CONCLUSIONS

 

110

   

 Most Important Conclusions,

 

110

   

 Other Conclusions,

 

111

   

 Note,

 

114

 

 

APPENDIXES

 

 

   

A  Committee and Staff

 

117

   

B  Agendas

 

122

   

C  Equivalent Yield Factors for Energy Coupling

 

130

   

D  Acronyms and Abbreviations

 

132



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