Statement of Task

The National Research Council (NRC) will:

  • Establish an ad hoc committee to provide technology analyses, both near and far term, to assist the agency to develop timelines, methodologies, and strategies for the application of identified technologies of interest to the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) under development within the United States and its allies and to bring to the agency’s attention potentially useful technologies that DIA may not be aware of that might be of value for adaptation and consideration.

  • Review information provided from government sources on technologies under development by other nations abroad and provide estimates on when these technologies may become mature to the point they could pose a threat to U.S. forces.

  • Meet with the agency to discuss technology developments here and abroad of interest to DIA and to develop potential study topics and task statements for in-depth assessment of specific technical areas.

  • Provide one or two short reports during the course of the first year on subjects developed in the course of meetings and as requested by the agency and approved by the NRC.

Report Statement of Task

For the first report, the National Research Council Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews will:

  • Develop, examine and review from unclassified sources evolving technologies that will be critical to successful U.S. warfighting capabilities.

  • Postulate methods for potential adversaries of the United States to disrupt these technologies and discuss indicators for the intelligence community to investigate to determine if RED force elements are attempting to achieve this disruptive capability (this discussion should be generally unclassified with specific sensitive or classified information, limited to SECRET, placed in an appendix).

  • Curtail its investigation to technologies consistent with the committee charter from the Defense Intelligence Agency Threat Analysis section (i.e., to exclude weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and areas of chemical/biological warfare not of specific interest to the sponsor).

  • Identify and recommend specific technology areas to be pursued in greater depth, both in specificity and classification, in future reports requested by DIA.

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