Background. GHG scenarios include factors such as population growth, economic development, and technological change, and they may also include analysis of the effects of atmospheric GHG concentrations, climate variables, and measures of human and environmental consequences. Such scenarios may or may not assume various levels of emissions control, such as long-term targets for atmospheric stabilization under Article 2 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change.25 They may take the form of “if-then” questions for choosing a specific policy response, or they may form the basis for policy studies aimed at setting long-term goals or assessing current policy measures, including research and development and other aspects of technology development.

TABLE B.8 Example Metrics for Case Study on Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Response

Type

Example Metrics

Process

• Are effective mechanisms in place for coordination with the Climate Change Technology Program?

• Does a structure exist for community planning and peer review of scenario development, public policy response, and analysis?

• Is there a timetable for the periodic review of scenario development activities, including testing of scenarios under different policy approaches?

Input

• Does a program exist that effectively sustains the needed analysis capability?

• Funds are available for the development and maintenance of a sustainable scientific community capable of analyzing climate change scenarios and policy response

• Historical climate, health, and environmental data are of sufficient quantity and quality to support the determination of historical patterns of climate-related effects

• Funds are available to support the technology, monitoring systems, predictive models, and interpretive activities required to develop different climate-related scenarios and to support the assessment of relevant policy responses

Output

• Peer-reviewed results from each region and from cross-region syntheses ensure comparability and continuity of data generated for different regions

• Have active groups been created that are capable of carrying out the desired policy-related scenario analysis, and is the necessary general analytic capability being sustained to respond when needs arise?

• Development of scenarios that not only reflect the range of problems produced by climate change, but also—through deliberative processes—are widely acceptable to impacted populations

25  

United Nations, 1992, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, New York, 33 pp.



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