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STRENGTHENING U.S.-RUSSIAN COOPERATION ON NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION

U.S. Committee on Strengthening U.S. and Russian Cooperative Nuclear Nonproliferation

Development, Security, and Cooperation Policy and Global Affairs

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Russian Committee on Strengthening U.S. and Russian Cooperative Nuclear Nonproliferation

RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu



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Strengthening U.S.-Russian Cooperation on Nuclear Nonproliferation: Recommendations for Action STRENGTHENING U.S.-RUSSIAN COOPERATION ON NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION U.S. Committee on Strengthening U.S. and Russian Cooperative Nuclear Nonproliferation Development, Security, and Cooperation Policy and Global Affairs NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Russian Committee on Strengthening U.S. and Russian Cooperative Nuclear Nonproliferation RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Strengthening U.S.-Russian Cooperation on Nuclear Nonproliferation: Recommendations for Action THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. 6058 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09669-3 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Strengthening U.S.-Russian Cooperation on Nuclear Nonproliferation: Recommendations for Action THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Strengthening U.S.-Russian Cooperation on Nuclear Nonproliferation: Recommendations for Action U.S. COMMITTEE ON STRENGTHENING U.S. AND RUSSIAN COOPERATIVE NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION Rose Gottemoeller, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Chair Major General William F. Burns, Distinguished Fellow, U.S. Army War College Orde Kittrie, Associate Professor, College of Law, Arizona State University M. Teresa Olascoaga, Director, Cooperative International Programs Group, Sandia National Laboratories Daniel Poneman, Principal, The Scowcroft Group William H. Press, Senior Laboratory Fellow, Los Alamos National Laboratory RUSSIAN COMMITTEE ON STRENGTHENING U.S. AND RUSSIAN COOPERATIVE NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION Ashot Arakelovich Sarkisov, Director, Division of Applied Problems of Nuclear Power, Nuclear Safety Institute, RAS, Chair Evgeny Nikolaevich Avrorin, Scientific Director, Zababkhin Russian Federal Nuclear Center Valery Ivanovich Rachkov, Director, Nuclear Power Department, Federal Atomic Energy Agency of the Russian Federation Vladimir I. Rybachenkov, Counselor, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Emilia V. Sidorova, Attaché, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Staff Christopher A. Eldridge, Study Director, National Research Council Rita S. Guenther, Senior Program Associate, National Research Council

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Strengthening U.S.-Russian Cooperation on Nuclear Nonproliferation: Recommendations for Action Preface and Acknowledgments In September 2003, the U.S. National Academies and Russian Academy of Sciences jointly organized a workshop on impediments to cooperation between the U.S. and Russia on nuclear nonproliferation. The product of that effort was a report entitled Overcoming Impediments to U.S.-Russian Cooperation on Nuclear Nonproliferation: Report of a Joint Workshop.1 The present fast-track study builds upon that earlier collaboration by providing the consensus recommendations and conclusions of a joint U.S.-Russian committee about the most attractive path forward for cooperation between the two countries on nuclear nonproliferation. The National Research Council of the National Academies appointed the members of the U.S. committee, while the Russian Academy of Sciences appointed the members of the Russian committee. All members of the joint committee, U.S. and Russian, participated in this study as independent experts and the views expressed in this text do not necessarily reflect the views of the institutions with which they are affiliated. To supplement the existing literature on cooperative nonproliferation programs and provide background material for the report, the joint committee commissioned several papers from Russian and U.S. experts. These papers appear as appendixes to the report. Although the report draws heavily on these appendixes, the views expressed in the appendixes are solely those of the authors of each appendix and do not necessarily reflect the views of the joint committee. The statement of task for this project was as follows: In collaboration with the Russian Academy of Sciences, the National Academies will conduct a study on specific methods of overcoming impediments to cooperation between the United States and Russia on nuclear nonproliferation. This project will be a cooperative study performed by an NRC committee appointed by the NRC Chair and a Russian committee appointed by the Russian Academy of Sciences. The two committees will work to produce a joint consensus report which will provide in-depth assessments of problems and solutions while painting a picture of Russian and American experts’ views on their governments’ cooperative nuclear nonproliferation programs. An international fast-track project such as this one places a premium on the ability of its participants to collaborate effectively across many miles, time zones, and cultural differences, and this project was extremely fortunate in that respect. We would like to express our sincere thanks and appreciation to the staff experts who made this report possible. They are Christopher Eldridge of the National Academy of Sciences’ Committee on International Security and Arms Control, who directed the study and very ably guided the draft through the review process; Rita S. Guenther of The National Academies’ Office for Central Europe and Eurasia, who provided substantive support and commanded the management details for the project; and Tatiana Povetnikova of the Institute for Nuclear Safety in Moscow, who handled logistical details in Russia, maintaining excellent communications with the members of the U.S. and Russian teams. Without their talents and attention, the high quality and fast pace of this study could not have been accomplished. In addition, Supernova Translations provided excellent translation and interpretation services for the project. The report text was skillfully edited in English by Michael Kent Hayes. Production of the Russian-language version of this report was coordinated by Nickolai Savinikh. None of this work would have been possible, however, without the generous financial support of the Nuclear Threat Initiative. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional 1   National Research Council, Overcoming Impediments to U.S.-Russian Cooperation on Nuclear Nonproliferation: Report of a Joint Workshop (Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press, 2004).

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Strengthening U.S.-Russian Cooperation on Nuclear Nonproliferation: Recommendations for Action standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: John Ahearne, Sigma Xi, The Research Center; Victor Alessi, United States Industry Coalition; Omer Brown, Harmon, Wilmot, and Brown, L.L.P.; Cathleen Campbell, Civilian Research Development Corporation; Brian Finlay, The Henry L. Stimson Center; Alexander Flax, Consultant; Thomas Graham, Lawyers Alliance for World Security; David Holloway, Stanford University; Alexander Kaliadin, Institute of World Economy and International Relations; Victor Koltunov, Academy of Military Sciences; Richard Meserve, Carnegie Institution of Washington; Steven Pifer, Independent Consultant; Sergey Ruchkin, TENEX; Nikolai Khlebnikov, International Atomic Energy Agency; Ivan Safranchuk, Center for Defense Information, Moscow; Julian Steyn, Energy Resources International; and Larry Welch, Institute for Defense Analyses. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by R. Stephen Berry of the University of Chicago. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Research Council. Rose Gottemoeller Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Chair, U.S. Committee Ashot Arakelovich Sarkisov Russian Academy of Sciences Chair, Russian Committee

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Strengthening U.S.-Russian Cooperation on Nuclear Nonproliferation: Recommendations for Action Contents     Summary   1     Introduction: From Assistance to Partnership   7     Political Challenges to Cooperation on Nonproliferation   9     Legal Obstacles and Opportunities   15     Program Organization and Management   22     Scientific and Technical Cooperation   27     Conclusion: The End of the Beginning   33     Appendixes         A  Glossary of Acronyms   37     B  Committee Biographies   38     C  Cooperative Threat Reduction Negotiations: Lessons Learned Susan Koch   42     D  The Experience of Cooperation in Accounting, Control, and Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials Between the Ministry of Defense of Russia and the Department of Energy of the United States N. N. Yurasov   47     E  Meetings and Discussions   52     F  On Some Issues of Global Security and Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons L. D. Ryabev   54

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Strengthening U.S.-Russian Cooperation on Nuclear Nonproliferation: Recommendations for Action     G  Analysis of the Legal and Regulatory Environment Governing the Disposition of Nuclear-Powered Submarines: Major Difficulties and Obstacles in Improvement of International Cooperation and Ways to Mitigate or Overcome Them V. N. Barinov and A. P. Zotov   60     H  Development of a Strategic Master Plan for Disposition of Decommissioned Russian Nuclear-Powered Fleet and Rehabilitation of Hazardous Radioactive Sites and Facilities of Its Support Infrastructure S. Antipov, L. Bolshov, and A. Sarkisov   65     I  Overcoming Impediments to Cooperation Between the United States and Russia: Improving Communication During Project Definition Michael S. Elleman and Wendin D. Smith   81     J  Overcoming Impediments to Cooperation Between the United States and Russia: Elements of Successful Project Preparation Michael S. Elleman and Wendin D. Smith   84     K  Means and Methods of Overcoming Barriers in Cooperation: Mindset Gap as a Legacy of the Cold War and Cooperation in Exploration and Utilization of Cosmic Space S. A. Popov   86     L  Radiological Terrorism in the Context of Nonproliferation R. V. Arutyunyan and V. P. Bilashenko   91