Appendix A
Methods

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

An analysis commissioned from Dr. Jeffrey Passel of the Pew Hispanic Center provided data on population growth for the period 1960-2000 for the Hispanic population and other racial/ethnic groups; alternative scenarios for the same period using the multigeneration projection methodology developed by Edmonston and Passel1; and multigeneration projections for 2000-2030, again for Hispanics and all others. This analysis produced data on the historical contributions made by immigration and high fertility levels to the growth of the Hispanic population. It also yielded projections of likely future levels of Hispanic immigration and fertility and an idea of how the United States would look if national borders had been sealed after 1960. A detailed discussion of the analysis methodology and results is provided in Passel (2004).2

FOCUS GROUPS

To explore views on Hispanic identity among Hispanics living in different parts of the United States and of varying generational status, the National Academies, in conjunction with the Pew Hispanic Center, commissioned International Communications Research to conduct focus group interviews with adult Hispanics. Five broad themes were discussed: labels



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Multiple Origins, Uncertain Destinies: Hispanics and the American Future Appendix A Methods POPULATION PROJECTIONS An analysis commissioned from Dr. Jeffrey Passel of the Pew Hispanic Center provided data on population growth for the period 1960-2000 for the Hispanic population and other racial/ethnic groups; alternative scenarios for the same period using the multigeneration projection methodology developed by Edmonston and Passel1; and multigeneration projections for 2000-2030, again for Hispanics and all others. This analysis produced data on the historical contributions made by immigration and high fertility levels to the growth of the Hispanic population. It also yielded projections of likely future levels of Hispanic immigration and fertility and an idea of how the United States would look if national borders had been sealed after 1960. A detailed discussion of the analysis methodology and results is provided in Passel (2004).2 FOCUS GROUPS To explore views on Hispanic identity among Hispanics living in different parts of the United States and of varying generational status, the National Academies, in conjunction with the Pew Hispanic Center, commissioned International Communications Research to conduct focus group interviews with adult Hispanics. Five broad themes were discussed: labels

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Multiple Origins, Uncertain Destinies: Hispanics and the American Future and terminology for identity, components of identity, language, interpersonal relationships, and sense of belonging/societal relations. Altogether, 10 focus groups were convened in five cities between February 10 and May 17, 2004, with 98 first-, second-, and third-generation Hispanics ages 18 to 31.3 The locations were chosen to sample residents of areas with established concentrations of Hispanics (e.g., Los Angeles), as well as residents of new areas where Hispanic communities are emerging (e.g., Raleigh). Eight of the groups were conducted in English and two in Spanish. The focus group participants were randomly selected from Hispanic households in the five cities using community-based recruiting. To enhance the size of the sample frame as well as the representativeness of the focus group participants, the sampling combined several standard recruitment approaches, including intercepts; referrals; recruiter databases; and responses to ads posted in community centers, churches, and shopping areas frequented by the Hispanic population in each city. CENSUS ADJUSTMENTS This report uses adjusted figures from the 2000 census to estimate the size of the Hispanic population. By reallocating individuals classified as “other Hispanic” in published tabulations, this adjustment produces a more accurate tally of the size of specific groups. It does not affect the total count of Hispanics in the United States. The 2000 census reported about 5 million people who checked “other Spanish, Hispanic, or Latino” but did not indicate a specific ethnicity or national origin. However, about 2 million of them in fact reported a specific Spanish-speaking Latin American country of birth or ancestry in response to the questions on the long form. This additional information was used to assign these persons to a specific national-origin group. For all Hispanic groups, the adjusted figures are shown in Table A-1. CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY The Current Population Survey (CPS) is an important primary data source for intergenerational analysis. Since 1980, the decennial censuses have been constrained by the deletion of the parental nativity question that was asked from 1870 to 1970, making it impossible to distinguish the first and second (foreign-parentage) generations from each other and from third

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Multiple Origins, Uncertain Destinies: Hispanics and the American Future TABLE A-1 Original and Adjusted Census Estimates, 2000 Group Original Figures (%) Adjusted Figures (%) Mexican 58 63 Puerto Rican 10 10 Cuban 4 4 Other Hispanic or Latino 28 8 Salvadoran, Guatemalan   4 Dominican 3 Central American, other 3 Colombian 2 Peruvian, Ecuadorian 2 South American, other 1 Hispanic Total 100 100   SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000b, Summary File 1), Rumbaut (2006). and later generations. Since 1994, however, the annual CPS has included items on maternal and paternal country of birth, permitting intergenerational analysis. Authors of several chapters of Hispanics and the Future of America, the companion to this report, used a common file of the March CPS for the years 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002, including specially constructed variables for Hispanic ethnicities (defined by subjective self-identification and country of birth) and generational cohorts defined by age at arrival and nativity of self and parents. EXPERT TESTIMONY To obtain expert testimony on selected topics, the panel held several workshops. The topics and invited presenters were as follows. Defining and Measuring the Hispanic Population Jorge Del Pinal, U.S. Bureau of the Census Elizabeth Martin, U.S. Bureau of the Census Jeffrey Passel, Urban Institute Residential Segregation John Iceland, University of Maryland

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Multiple Origins, Uncertain Destinies: Hispanics and the American Future Crime and Criminal Justice Bruce Western, Princeton University Jeff Morenoff, University of Michigan Patricia Fernández-Kelly, Princeton University Education Transitions and Hispanic Students Sean Reardon, Pennsylvania State University Claudia Galindo, Pennsylvania State University Catherine Riegle-Crumb, University of Texas at Austin Chandra Muller, University of Texas at Austin Eugene Garcia, Dean, College of Education, Arizona State University Maria Lopez-Freeman, Executive Director, California Science Project Roberto Gonzalez, Principal, Sam Houston High School Jerry Valadez, K–12 Science Coordinator, Fresno Unified School District Hispanic Adolescents’ Health Marilyn Winkleby, Stanford University William Vega, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School Media and Marketing John Gallegos, Gallegos Group J. Gerardo Lopez, La Opinión NOTES 1   Edmonston and Passel, 1994. 2   Passel, 2004. 3   For more information, refer to International Communications Research, 2004.