National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11327.
×

IMPROVED SEISMIC MONITORING IMPROVED DECISION-MAKING

Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty

Committee on the Economic Benefits of Improved Seismic Monitoring

Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11327.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the opinions or policies of the U.S. government. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute their endorsement by the U.S. government. Supported by the U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior, under assistance Award No. 03HQGR0114.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11327.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11327.
×

COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED SEISMIC MONITORING

CHRIS D. POLAND, Chair,

Degenkolb Engineers, San Francisco, California

JAMES AMENT,

State Farm Fire and Casualty Co., Bloomington, Illinois

DAVID S. BROOKSHIRE,

The University of New Mexico, Albuquerque

JAMES D. GOLTZ,

California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, Pasadena

PETER GORDON,

University of Southern California, Los Angeles

STEPHANIE A. KING,

Weidlinger Associates, Inc., Los Altos, California

HOWARD KUNREUTHER,

The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia

STUART P. NISHENKO,

Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, California

ADAM Z. ROSE,

The Pennsylvania State University, University Park

HOPE A. SELIGSON,

ABS Consulting, Irvine, California

PAUL G. SOMERVILLE,

URS Group, Inc., Pasadena, California

Liaison from Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics:

TERRY C. WALLACE, Jr.,

Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico

National Research Council Staff

DAVID A. FEARY, Study Director

JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Administrative Associate

RADHIKA S. CHARI, Senior Project Assistant (until 5/04)

AMANDA M. ROBERTS, Project Assistant (from 7/04)

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11327.
×

COMMITTEE ON SEISMOLOGY AND GEODYNAMICS

TERRY C. WALLACE, Jr., Chair,

Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico

ALAN LEVANDER, Vice-Chair,

Rice University, Houston, Texas

ROLAND BÜRGMANN,

University of California, Berkeley

ADAM M. DZIEWONSKI,

Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

WILLIAM E. HOLT,

State University of New York at Stony Brook

LOUISE H. KELLOGG,

University of California, Davis

M. MEGHAN MILLER,

Central Washington University, Ellensburg

JACK R. MURPHY,

Science Applications International Corporation, Arlington, Virginia

PAUL G. SILVER,

Carnegie Institution of Washington, D.C.

AARON A. VELASCO,

University of Texas at El Paso

RU-SHAN WU,

University of California, Santa Cruz

National Research Council Staff

DAVID A. FEARY, Study Director

VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11327.
×

BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES

GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, Chair,

University of Virginia, Charlottesville

M. LEE ALLISON,

Kansas Geological Survey, Lawrence

STEVEN R. BOHLEN,

Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Washington, D.C.

ADAM M. DZIEWONSKI,

Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

RHEA L. GRAHAM,

New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission, Albuquerque

ROBYN HANNIGAN,

Arkansas State University, Jonesboro

V. RAMA MURTHY,

University of Minnesota, Minneapolis

RAYMOND A. PRICE,

Queen’s University, Ontario, Canada

MARK SCHAEFER,

NatureServe, Arlington, Virginia

STEVEN M. STANLEY,

Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland

BILLIE L. TURNER II,

Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts

STEPHEN G. WELLS,

Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada

THOMAS J. WILBANKS,

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee

National Research Council Staff

ANTHONY R. DE SOUZA, Director

DAVID A. FEARY, Senior Program Officer

ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer

ANN FRAZIER, Program Officer

SAMMANTHA MAGSINO, Program Officer

RONALD F. ABLER, Senior Scholar

HEDY J. ROSSMEISSL, Senior Scholar

TANJA E. PILZAK, Research Associate

CAETLIN M. OFIESH, Research Assistant

JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Administrative Associate

VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Assistant

JAMES B. DAVIS, Program Assistant

AMANDA M. ROBERTS, Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11327.
×

Preface

For those of us who visit and assess areas devastated by earthquakes and have responsibility for ensuring that the damaging effects of earthquakes are minimized, the value of seismic monitoring as one of the essential tools is absolutely clear and unchallenged. However, providing an economic assessment of the value of this tool is a different and difficult issue, and one that has long challenged the nation’s scientists and engineers.

This study, commissioned by the U.S. Geological Survey, is aimed specifically at assessing the economic benefits of modernizing and expanding seismic monitoring activities in the United States, so that the value derived from monitoring data can be compared to other activities competing for the same resources. The National Research Council—in recognition of the multidisciplinary nature of this issue—populated the study committee with representatives from the range of professions involved with geoscience, emergency management, and earthquake engineering issues, together with expert economists to ensure that the benefit analysis was undertaken with appropriate rigor. The committee accepted public testimony, deliberated thoughtfully and with considerable skepticism, and developed this report to clearly set the stage, define the issues, and discuss the costs and benefits that improved seismic monitoring will have on all aspects of earthquake science and engineering.

The committee commenced this study with the expectation that it would collectively be able to identify the many areas where improved seismic monitoring information would contribute to mitigating earthquake losses and be able to use a diverse range of existing information to quantify the economic benefits. In the end, the committee concluded that

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11327.
×

although it was possible to describe the numerous potential benefits, attempts to quantify them rigorously proved elusive because the required information either does not exist or is not routinely collected. In keeping with its charge, the committee used a range of assumptions to derive a very approximate estimate of potential performance-based engineering benefits to illustrate the complexity of this task as well as the magnitude of potential benefits.

The recent tragedy in nations surrounding the northern Indian Ocean, caused by the 2004 Sumatran earthquake and tsunami, provided vivid testimony to the awesome power of forces within the earth’s crust, and the enormous potential that these forces pose for devastating loss of life and economic disruption. This event focused national and international attention on the capabilities of warning systems for mitigating natural disasters, leading to accelerated implementation of long-established plans to expand tsunami warning systems. Will it take a similarly devastating earthquake in the United States to accelerate long-established—but only partially funded—plans to broaden seismic monitoring programs to maximize the potential for earthquake hazard mitigation?

On behalf of the committee, I would like to acknowledge and thank all the scientists and engineers who made presentations at our four committee meetings. I wish to also thank the committee members for their thoughtful, pointed, and candid views and their willingness to listen, discover the benefits, and come to agreement. Most of all, I want to thank David Feary and the other members of the NRC staff for their hard work and diligence in keeping us organized, focused, and understandable.

Chris D. Poland

Chair

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11327.
×

Acknowledgments

The committee would like to express its appreciation to the many individuals who provided briefings and other information during the information-gathering process: Richard Bernknopf, Steven Bohlen, Dan Byers, Stephen Cauffman, Bruce Clark, Lloyd Cluff, Richard Eisner, Bill Ellsworth, John Filson, Jason Freihage, Linda Gundersen, Robert Herrmann, Richard Howe, Lucy Jones, Patrick Leahy, William Leith, E.V. Leyendecker, Mike Mahoney, Steven McCabe, Charles Meade, Priscilla Nelson, Bela Palfalvi, Paul Reasenberg, Cliff Roblee, Doug Sandy, Woody Savage, Kaye Shedlock, David Simpson, Zan Turner, Craig Weaver, Gene Whitney, Mitch Withers, and Darryl Young. The committee particularly acknowledges the provision of information from Ron Tognazzini and Craig Davis (Los Angeles Department of Water and Power).

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Gail M. Atkinson, Department of Earth Sciences, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11327.
×

Stephanie E. Chang, Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, and School of Community and Regional Planning, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

Ronald T. Eguchi, ImageCat, Inc., Long Beach, California

Robert M. Hamilton, Zelienople, Pennsylvania

Peter J. May, Political Science Department, University of Washington, Seattle

Claire B. Rubin, Claire B. Rubin & Associates, Arlington, Virginia

Craig Tillman, Wyndham Partners Consulting Ltd., (an affiliate of Renaissance Reinsurance Ltd.), Laguna Niguel, California

Richard J. Zeckhauser, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William J. Petak, University of Southern California, Los Angeles. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for ensuring that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11327.
×

4

 

BENEFITS FROM IMPROVED EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING

 

77

   

 Monitoring for Hazard Assessment,

 

78

   

 Monitoring for Ground Motion Prediction Models,

 

83

   

 Seismic Zonation for Reducing Uncertainty,

 

88

   

 Monitoring for Earthquake Forecasting, Alerts, and Prediction,

 

94

5

 

BENEFITS FROM IMPROVED LOSS ESTIMATION MODELS

 

105

   

 Uses of Loss Estimation Models,

 

106

   

 Uncertainty in Loss Estimation Models,

 

108

   

 Monitoring for Improved Loss Estimation Models,

 

109

6

 

BENEFITS FROM PERFORMANCE-BASED ENGINEERING

 

116

   

 Seismic Monitoring and the Development of Earthquake Engineering,

 

117

   

 Improvements in Seismic Monitoring Needed to Support Performance-Based Engineering,

 

120

   

 Calculation of Benefits Provided by Performance-Based Engineering,

 

124

   

 Summary,

 

131

7

 

BENEFITS FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND RECOVERY

 

132

   

 Monitoring for Response Readiness,

 

133

   

 Real-Time Information for Emergency Response Operations,

 

134

   

 Monitoring for Earthquake Recovery,

 

137

   

 Recent Response Experiences,

 

139

   

 Summary,

 

142

8

 

INTEGRATING THE BENEFITS—CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

 

144

   

 Summary of Benefit Components,

 

146

   

 Benefit Integration,

 

151

   

 Recommendations,

 

153

 

 

REFERENCES

 

159

 

 

APPENDIXES

 

 

   

A  Excerpts from Bernknopf et al. (1993), “Societal Value of Geologic Maps”

 

169

   

B  Committee and Staff Biographies

 

179

   

C  Acronyms and Abbreviations

 

182

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11327.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2006. Improved Seismic Monitoring - Improved Decision-Making: Assessing the Value of Reduced Uncertainty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11327.
×
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Improved Seismic Monitoring—Improved Decision-Making, describes and assesses the varied economic benefits potentially derived from modernizing and expanding seismic monitoring activities in the United States. These benefits include more effective loss avoidance regulations and strategies, improved understanding of earthquake processes, better engineering design, more effective hazard mitigation strategies, and improved emergency response and recovery. The economic principles that must be applied to determine potential benefits are reviewed and the report concludes that although there is insufficient information available at present to fully quantify all the potential benefits, the annual dollar costs for improved seismic monitoring are in the tens of millions and the potential annual dollar benefits are in the hundreds of millions.

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