REVIEW OF THE GAPP SCIENCE AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

Committee to Review the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan REVIEW OF THE GAPP SCIENCE AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Committee to Review the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Contract No. NAG5-12864, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Contract No. DG133R04CQ0009, and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research under Contract No. S05-51096. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09678-2 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE GAPP SCIENCE AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN KATHARINE L. JACOBS (Chair), University of Arizona, Tucson ANA P. BARROS, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina PAUL A. DIRMEYER, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, Maryland ARIS P. GEORGAKAKOS, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta CHESTER F. ROPELEWSKI, International Research Institute, Palisades, New York GUIDO D. SALVUCCI, Boston University, Massachusetts SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of California, Irvine HASSAN VIRJI, International START Secretariat, Washington, D.C. NRC Staff LEAH PROBST, Study Director PARIKHIT SINHA, Study Director* ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Senior Program Assistant *   Until April 2005

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Review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ROBERT J. SERAFIN (Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder M. JOAN ALEXANDER, Colorado Research Associates, Boulder FREDERICK R. ANDERSON, McKenna Long & Aldridge LLP, Washington, D.C. MICHAEL L. BENDER, Princeton University, New Jersey ROSINA M. BIERBAUM, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MARY ANNE CARROLL, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor CAROL ANNE CLAYSON, Florida State University, Tallahassee WALTER DABBERDT, Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado KERRY A. EMANUEL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge DENNIS L. HARTMANN, University of Washington, Seattle PETER R. LEAVITT, Weather Information, Inc., Newton, Massachusetts JENNIFER A. LOGAN, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts VERNON R. MORRIS, Howard University, Washington, D.C. THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR, Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins ROGER M. WAKIMOTO, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Ex Officio Members ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR., University of Maryland, College Park ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, New Jersey NRC Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Director PAUL CUTLER, Senior Program Officer AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Program Officer IAN KRAUCUNAS, Associate Program Officer CLAUDIA MENGELT, Associate Program Officer LEAH PROBST, Research Associate ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Senior Program Assistant ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Coordinator ANDREAS SOHRE, Financial Associate

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Review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Alan K. Betts, Atmospheric Research, Pittsford, Vermont Kaye Brubacker, University of Maryland, College Park Gilbert Brunet, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada Jeanine Jones, California Department of Water Resources Steven A. Margulis, University of California, Los Angeles Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Roger Barry, University of Colorado. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan Contents 1   Introduction   1      Program Background,   1      Water Cycle Prediction and Decision Support: Science Background,   1      Oversight of the GAPP Program,   2      The Present Study,   2      Organization of This Report,   3 2   General Comments and Recommendations   5      Meeting the Science Goals of GAPP in the Context of Other Programs,   6      How Complete Is the Science and Implementation Plan?   7      Funding for GAPP,   9      Decision Support,   9      Raising GAPP’s Profile,   10      Recommendations,   11 3   Chapter Comments and Recommendations   13     Chapter 2:  “Land-Memory and Variability Studies,”   13     Chapter 3:  “Hydrometeorology of Orographic Systems,”   16     Chapter 4:  “Warm Season Precipitation,”   18     Chapter 5:  “CEOP” (Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period),   20     Chapter 6:  “Operational Seasonal Climate Prediction: Components from GAPP,”   22     Chapter 7:  “Hydrology and Water Resources Applications,”   24     Chapter 8:  “GAPP Remote Sensing Applications,”   28     Chapter 9:  “GAPP Data Management,”   30     Chapter 10:  “Organizational Elements,”   31 4   GAPP and Related Programs   33      GAPP and CCSP,   33      GAPP and the CPPA,   36      GAPP and GEWEX Phase II,   37      GAPP and Other Programs with Similar Goals,   38

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Review of the GAPP Science and Implementation Plan     References   41     Appendixes         A   NRC Committee Statement of Task   45     B   NRC Committee Public Meeting Agenda, March 30, 2005, Washington, D.C   46     C   Acronyms   47     D   Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff   49     E   GEWEX America Prediction Project (GAPP) Science and Implementation Plan   53