• How can advances in observations, understanding and modeling of ocean-atmosphere-land interactions be used to further improve climate predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales?

Committee comments: The GAPP program addresses the land-based component of improving climate predictions through observations, understanding, and modeling.

  • What are the time scales for changes in climate variability following major changes in the land surface, oceans or sea ice, and how does this “memory” contribute to climate predictability on multi-year to decadal time scales?

Committee comments: Since the GAPP program is focused on seasonal-to-interannual prediction, it does not contribute directly to predictability on multiyear-to-decadal time scales. However, the knowledge gained regarding the memory in the land surface on shorter time scales contributes to the longer-term investigations.

CCSP Section 4.4—How are extreme events, such as droughts, floods, wildfires, heat waves and hurricanes related to climate variability and change?

  • To what extent are changes in the statistics of extreme events predictable?

Committee comments: GAPP intends to support the development of improved predictions of events such as floods and droughts.

CCSP Section 4.5—How can information on climate variability and change be most efficiently developed, integrated with non-climatic knowledge, and communicated in order to best serve societal needs?

  • What new climate information would provide the greatest potential for benefits, for different regions and sectors?

  • How can climate information be best developed for use in adaptive management strategies?

  • Can new climate indicators be developed to better assess climate vulnerability and resilience in climate-sensitive sectors?

  • How can access to and communication of climate data and forecasts be improved to better serve the needs of the public, scientific community, decisionmakers, and policymakers?

Committee comments: All of the goals in this section are related to the decision support objective of GAPP.

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