To use models developed primarily from the LSS cohort for the estimation of lifetime risks for the U.S. population, it was necessary to make several assumptions that involve uncertainty. Two important sources of uncertainty are (1) the possible reduction in risk for exposure at low doses and dose rates (i.e., the DDREF) and (2) the use of risk estimates based on Japanese atomic bomb survivors for estimating risks for the U.S. population.

The committee has developed and presented its best possible risk estimates for exposure to low-dose, low-LET radiation in human subjects. As an example, Table ES-1 shows the estimated number of incident cancer cases and deaths that would be expected to result if each individual in a population of 100,000 persons with an age distribution similar to that of the entire U.S. population was exposed to a single dose of 0.1 Gy, and also shows the numbers that would be expected in the absence of exposure. Results for solid cancers are based on linear models and reduced by a DDREF of 1.5. Results for leukemia are based on a linear-quadratic model.

The estimates are accompanied by 95% subjective confidence intervals (i.e., random as well as judgmental) that reflect the most important sources of uncertainty—namely, statistical variation, uncertainty in the factor used to adjust risk estimates for exposure at low doses and dose rates, and uncertainty in the method of transport. In this report the committee also presents example estimates for each of several specific cancer sites and other exposure scenarios, although they are not shown here.

In general the magnitude of estimated risks for total cancer mortality or leukemia has not changed greatly from estimates in past reports such as BEIR V and recent reports of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation and the International Commission on Radiological Protection. New data and analyses have reduced sampling uncertainty, but uncertainties related to estimating risk for exposure at low doses and dose rates and to transporting risks from Japanese A-bomb survivors to the U.S. population remain large. Uncertainties in estimating risks of site-specific cancers are especially large.

As an illustration, Figure ES-1 shows estimated excess relative risks of solid cancer versus dose (averaged over sex and standardized to represent individuals exposed at age 30 who have attained age 60) for atomic bomb survivors, with doses in each of 10 dose intervals less than 2.0 Sv. The figure in the insert represents the ERR versus dose for leukemia. This plot conveys the overall dose-response relationship for the LSS cohort and its role in low-dose risk estimation. It is important to note that the difference between the linear and linear-quadratic models in the low-dose ranges is small relative to the error bars; therefore, the difference between these models is small relative to the uncertainty in the risk estimates produced from them. For solid cancer incidence the linear-quadratic model did not offer a statistically significant improvement in fit, so the linear model was used. For leukemia, a linear-quadratic model (insert in Figure ES-1) was used since it fitted the data significantly better than the linear model.

CONCLUSION

The committee concludes that current scientific evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that there is a linear, no-threshold dose-response relationship between exposure to ionizing radiation and the development of cancer in humans.

RECOMMENDED RESEARCH NEEDS

A more detailed listing of the BEIR VII recommended research needs can be found at the end of Chapter 13.

Research Need 1: Determination of the level of various molecular markers of DNA damage as a function of low-dose ionizing radiation

Currently identified molecular markers of DNA damage and other biomarkers that can be identified in the future should be used to quantify low levels of DNA damage and to identify the chemical nature and repair characteristics of the damage to the DNA molecule.

TABLE ES-1 The Committee’s Preferred Estimates of the Lifetime Attributable Risk of Incidence and Mortality for All Solid Cancers and for Leukemia

 

All Solid

Cancers Leukemia

Males

Females

Males

Females

Excess cases (including nonfatal cases) from exposure to 0.1 Gy

800 (400, 1600)

1300 (690, 2500)

100 (30, 300)

70 (20, 250)

Number of cases in the absence of exposure

45,500

36,900

830

590

Excess deaths from exposure to 0.1 Gy

410 (200, 830)

610 (300, 1200)

70 (20, 220)

50 (10, 190)

Number of deaths in the absence of exposure

22,100

17,500

710

530

NOTE: Number of cases or deaths per 100,000 exposed persons.

a95% subjective confidence intervals.



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement