FIGURE 12-1A Age-time patterns in radiation-associated risks for solid cancer incidence excluding thyroid and nonmelanoma skin cancer. Curves are sex-averaged estimates of the risk at 1 Sv for people exposed at age 10 (solid lines), age 20 (dashed lines), and age 30 or more (dotted lines). Estimates were computed using the parameter estimates shown in Table 12-1.

FIGURE 12-1B Age-time patterns in the radiation-associated risks for all solid cancer mortality. Curves are sex-averaged estimates of the risk at 1 Sv for people exposed at age 10 (solid lines), age 20 (dashed lines), and age 30 or more (dotted lines). Estimates were computed using the parameter estimates shown in Table 12-1.

The most recent analyses of A-bomb survivor cancer incidence and mortality data (e.g., Preston and others 2003, 2004) are based on models in which ERR (e, a) and EAR (e, a) are of the form below:

(12-1)

The parameters γ and η quantify the dependence of the ERR or EAR on e and a. These models, with dependence on both age at exposure and attained age, were chosen because of difficulties in distinguishing the fits of models with only one of those variables and because, with the incidence data, analyses of all solid cancers indicated dependence on both variables.

The committee’s models were developed from analyses of both LSS incidence and LSS mortality data. Analyses of incidence data were based on the category consisting of all solid cancers excluding thyroid and nonmelanoma skin cancers. These exclusions were made because both thyroid cancer and nonmelanoma skin cancer exhibit exceptionally strong age-at-exposure dependencies that do not seem typi-



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