TABLE 12-6 Committee’s Preferred Estimates of Lifetime Attributable Risk (LAR) of Solid Cancer Incidence and Mortalitya (with 95% subjective CIs)b

Exposure Scenario

Incidence

Mortality

Males

Females

Males

Females

0.1 Gy to population of mixed ages

800 (400, 1590)

1310 (690, 2490)

410 (200, 830)

610 (300, 1230)

0.1 Gy at age 10

1330 (660, 2660)

2530 (1290, 4930)

640 (300, 1390)

1050 (470, 2330)

0.1 Gy at age 30

600 (290, 1260)

1000 (500, 2020)

320 (150, 650)

490 (250, 950)

0.1 Gy at age 50

510 (240, 1100)

680 (350, 1320)

290 (140, 600)

420 (210, 810)

1 mGy per year throughout life

550 (280, 1100)

970 (510, 1840)

290 (140, 580)

460 (230, 920)

10 mGy per year from ages 18 to 65

2600 (1250, 5410)

4030 (2070, 7840)

1410 (700, 2860)

2170 (1130, 4200)

NOTE: Number of cases or deaths per 100,000 exposed persons.

aThese were obtained as the sum of site-specific LAR estimates. The site-specific estimates were obtained as a weighted average (on a logarithmic scale) of estimates based on relative and absolute risk transport. For sites other than lung, breast, and thyroid, relative risk transport was given a weight of 0.7 and absolute risk transport was given a weight of 0.3. These weights were reversed for lung cancer. Models for breast and thyroid cancer were based on data that included Caucasian subjects. The resulting linear estimates were reduced by a DDREF of 1.5.

bIncluding uncertainty from sampling variability, transport, and DDREF. The uncertainty evaluation was based on evaluation of estimates based on analyses of LSS cohort data on all solid cancers analyzed as a single category as described in Annex 12C.

TABLE 12-7 Lifetime Attributable Risk of Leukemia Incidence and Mortalitya

Exposure Scenario

Males

Females

LAR Based on Relative Risk Transportb

LAR Based on Absolute Risk Transportc

Committee’s Preferred Estimated (Subjective 95% CIe)

LAR Based on Relative Risk Transportb

LAR Based on Absolute Risk Transportc

Committee’s Preferred Estimated (Subjective 95% CIe)

Incidence

0.1 Gy to population of mixed ages

120

64

100 (33, 300)

94

38

72 (21, 250)

0.1 Gy at age 10

140

85

120 (40, 360)

110

50

86 (25, 300)

0.1 Gy at age 30

87

77

84 (31, 230)

69

49

62 (22, 170)

0.1 Gy at age 50

110

45

84 (24, 290)

84

30

62 (16, 230)

1 mGy per year throughout life

83

40

67 (19, 230)

68

26

51 (13, 200)

10 mGy per year from ages 18 to 65

430

240

360 (110, 1140)

340

160

270 (79, 920)

Mortality

0.1 Gy to population of mixed ages

88

40

69 (22, 220)

71

25

52 (14, 190)

0.1 Gy at age 10

88

42

70 (21, 240)

71

26

53 (13, 210)

0.1 Gy at age 30

70

53

64 (23, 180)

59

36

51 (17, 150)

0.1 Gy at age 50

93

37

71 (20, 250)

74

26

54 (14, 210)

1 mGy per year throughout life

62

25

47 (13, 180)

53

17

38 (9, 160)

10 mGy per year from ages 18 to 65

350

170

290 (84, 970)

290

120

220 (61, 820)

NOTE: Number of cases or deaths per 100,000 exposed persons.

aAll estimates are based on linear-quadratic model.

bBased on ERR model shown in Table 12-4.

cBased on EAR model shown in Table 12-4.

dObtained as a weighted mean (on a logarithmic scale) with weights of 0.7 for the relative risk transport estimate and a weight of 0.3 for the absolute risk transport estimate.

eIncluding uncertainty from sampling variability and transport. Sampling uncertainty includes uncertainty in both the linear and the quadratic terms of the dose-response.



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