TABLE 12-11 Comparison of the Estimated ERR/Gy from Selected Medical Studies to the ERR/Gy Used in the Committee’s Preferred Models for Estimating Site-Specific Solid Cancer Incidence and Mortality

Cancer Sitea

Medical Study

Sex

Mean Organ Dose (Gy)

Number of Exposed Cases

ERR/Gy Based on Medical Study (95% CI)

Comparable ERR/Gy from LSS Cohortb (95% CI)

Stomach

Cervical cancerc

Females

2

348

0.54 (0.05, 1.5)

0.48 (0.31, 0.73)

Stomach

Ankylosing spondylitisd

Males (83%)

2.5

127

−0.004 (< 0, 0.05)

0.21 (0.11, 0.40)

Colon

Uterine bleeding (US)e

Females

1.3

75

0.51 (<0, 5.6)

0.43 (0.19, 0.96)

Colon

Uterine bleeding (UK)f

Females

3.2

47

0.13 (0.01, 0.26)

0.43 (0.19, 0.96)

Lung

Peptic ulcerg

Males (80%)

1.8

125

0.24 (0.07, 0.44)

0.32 (0.15, 0.70)

Lung

Fluoroscopyh

Males

1.0

347

0.02 (< 0, 0.11)

0.32 (0.15, 0.70)

Lung

Fluoroscopyh

Females

1.0

108

−0.06 (< 0, 0.07)

1.40 (0.94, 2.1)

Prostate

Ankylosing spondylitisd

Males (83%)

1.5

88

0.14 (0.02, 0.28)

0.12 (<0, 0.69)

Bladder

Ankylosing spondylitisd

Males (83%)

1.5

71

0.24 (0.09, 0.41)

0.50 (0.18, 1.4)

NOTE: Estimated parameters with 95% CIs.

aSites had to meet the following criteria: (1) the BEIR VII committee provides lifetime risk estimates, (2) the study investigators present estimates of the ERR/Gy, (3) the mean dose to the organ of interest is less than 4 Gy, and (4) the estimate is based on at least 30 exposed cases.

bFor the LSS, estimates are sex-specific estimates from Table 12-3 (for the sex indicated in column 3) and are for exposure at age 30 at attained age 60.

cBoice and others (1988).

dWeiss and others (1994).

eInskip and others (1990b).

fDarby and others (1994).

gCarr and others (2002).

hHowe (1995).

TABLE 12-12 Comparison of Estimated ERR/Gy from Selected Worker Studies with the ERR/Gy Used in the Committee’s Preferred Models for Estimating Solid Cancer and Leukemia Mortality

 

Age at Exposure

 

All Ages ERR per Gy (95% CI)

30+ ERR per Gy

20 ERR per Gy

All solid cancers (or all cancers but leukemia)

Estimate from 3-country studya

−0.07 (−0.29, 0.30)

 

Estimate from NRRWb

0.09 (−0.28, 0.52)

BEIR VII estimatec reduced by a DDREF of 1.5

 

Attained age 50

 

0.17

0.31

Attained age 60

0.15

0.27

Leukemia excluding CLL

Estimate from 3-country studya

2.2 (0.1, 5.7)

 

Estimate from NRRWb

2.6 (−0.03, 7.2)

BEIR VII estimated based on linear-quadratic function

 

Time since exposure 5 years

 

2.4

6.4

Time since exposure 15 years

1.4

2.4

Time since exposure 25 years

1.1

1.6

Time since exposure 35 years

0.9

1.1

NOTE: Estimated parameters with 95% CIs.

aCardis and others (1995).

bMuirhead and others (1999).

cBased on ERR model for cancer mortality in males shown in Table 12-1.

dBased on ERR model for leukemia mortality in males shown in Table 12-3.



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