early in life. For example, UNSCEAR estimates for persons exposed at age 10 based on the exposure-age model are about twice those based on the attained-age model.

The most recent analyses of A-bomb survivor incidence (R13 incidence report) and mortality data (Preston and others 2003) have emphasized models that allow the ERR to depend on both age at exposure and attained age. That is,

(12B-3)

This choice was made in part because of difficulties in distinguishing the fits of the two models above and because, with the incidence data, analyses of all solid cancers indicated a need for modification by both exposure age and attained age. It is expected that analyses of updated cancer incidence data will allow for dependencies on both exposure age and attained age.

Recent A-bomb survivor reports also show results based on models for the EAR. These models are of the same form as given above, although the parameters have different interpretations. In particular, the parameter that quantifies the dependence on attained age describes the strong increase in excess risk with this variable.

The models developed in the following two sections allow for dependencies on both exposure age and attained age. Although the RERF model is evaluated, consideration has also been given to other forms for the dependencies on exposure age and attained age. Both ERR and EAR models are evaluated. Because sample sizes for individual cancer sites are usually too small to quantify precisely the effects of either age at exposure or attained age, the parameters that quantify these effects are in most cases obtained from analyses of all solid cancers. As shown later, with ERR models there are few instances in which the site-specific estimates of these parameters differ significantly from the common values. However, with EAR models there is evidence that the dependence on attained age varies by site.

In the material that follows, the committee first describes analyses conducted to determine the basic form of the preferred model. It then describes analyses of site-specific cancers that were used to confirm the committee’s model choice and to evaluate the appropriateness of using common parameters.

Analyses of Incidence Data on All Solid Cancers Excluding Thyroid and Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer and of Mortality Data on All Solid Cancers

The analyses of cancer incidence data described in this section were based on the category of all solid cancers excluding thyroid cancer and nonmelanoma skin cancer. These exclusions were made primarily because both thyroid cancer and nonmelanoma skin cancer exhibit exceptionally strong age dependencies that do not seem to be typical of cancers of other sites (Thompson and others 1994). With the incidence data, there were 12,778 solid cancer cases occurring in the periods 1958–1998 after the exclusion of 401 thyroid cancers and 275 nonmelanoma skin cancers. Because the most recent mortality data (1950–2000) available to the committee did not include site-specific solid cancer, analyses of mortality data were based on all solid cancers (including thyroid and nonmelanoma skin cancer). There were 10,127 solid cancer deaths occurring in the period 1950–2000. The number of thyroid and nonmelanoma skin cancers included in this group is likely to have been small. Of the 9399 solid cancer deaths occurring in the period 1950–1997 (Preston and others 2003), only 64 (0.7%) were due to thyroid cancer and 32 (0.3%) to nonmelanoma skin cancer. Table 12B-1A shows the distribution of cases (1958–1998) and deaths (1950–2000) by sex and dose category. Table 12B-1B shows the distribution of site-specific cancers by sex, with the num-

TABLE 12B-1A Number of Incidence Cases of Solid Cancer Excluding Thyroid and Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer and Number of Deaths from Solid Cancer by Sex and Colon Dose

Colon Dose (Sv)

No. of Cases (1958–1998)

No. of Deaths (1950–2000)

Males

Females

Total

Males

Females

Total

< 0.005

2,504

2,855

5,359

2,089

2,181

4,270

0.005–0.1

1,900

2,295

4,195

1,603

1,784

3,387

0.1–0.2

379

547

926

307

425

732

0.2–0.5

473

602

1,075

379

436

815

0.5–1.0

294

348

642

241

242

483

1.0–2.0

199

219

418

160

166

326

2.0 +

74

89

163

51

63

114

Total

5,823

6,955

12,778

4,830

5,297

10,127

TABLE 12B-1B Number of Incidence Cases and Number of Deaths by Cancer Site and Sex

Cancer Site

No. of cases (1958–1998)

No.of Deaths (1950–1997)

Males

Females

Total

Males

Females

Total

Stomach

1,899

1,703

3,602

1,555

1,312

2,867

Colon

547

618

1,165

206

272

478

Liver

676

470

1,146

722

514

1,236

Lung

770

574

1,344

716

548

1,264

Breast

7

847

854

3

272

275

Prostate

281

0

281

104

0

104

Ovary

0

190

190

0

136

136

Uterus

0

875

875

0

518

518

Bladder

227

125

352

83

67

150

Other solid

1,416

1,553

2,969

1,036

1,175

2,211

Total

5,823

6,955

12,778

4,425

4,814

9,239



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