11

 

RISK ASSESSMENT MODELS AND METHODS

 

259

   

 Risk Assessment Methodology,

 

259

   

 Risk Models,

 

261

   

 Variables That Modify the Dose-Response Relationship,

 

264

12

 

ESTIMATING CANCER RISK

 

267

   

 Introduction,

 

267

   

 Data Evaluated for BEIR VII Models,

 

267

   

 Measures of Risk and Choice of Cancer End Points,

 

268

   

 The BEIR VII Committee’s Preferred Models,

 

269

   

 Use of the Committee’s Preferred Models to Estimate Risks for the U.S. Population,

 

274

   

 Quantitative Evaluation of Uncertainty in Lifetime Risks,

 

278

   

 Results of Risk Calculations,

 

278

   

 Uncertainties in Lifetime Risk Estimates,

 

284

   

 Coherence of Models with Other Studies,

 

286

   

 Summary,

 

290

   

ANNEX 12A: Previous Models for Estimating Cancer Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Low-LET Ionizing Radiation,

 

291

   

ANNEX 12B: Committee Analyses of Data on the LSS Cohort to Develop BEIR VII Models for Estimating Cancer Risks,

 

296

   

ANNEX 12C: Details of LAR Uncertainty Analysis,

 

308

   

ANNEX 12D: Additional Examples of Lifetime Risk Estimates Based on BEIR VII Preferred Models,

 

310

13

 

SUMMARY AND RESEARCH NEEDS

 

313

   

 Evidence from Biology,

 

313

   

 Genetic Effects of Radiation on Human Populations,

 

316

   

 Epidemiologic Studies of Populations Exposed to Ionizing Radiation,

 

317

   

 Integration of Biology and Epidemiology,

 

321

   

 Models for Estimating the Lifetime Risk of Cancer,

 

322

   

 Conclusion,

 

323

 

 

APPENDIXES

 

325

   

A  BASIC BIOLOGICAL AND GENETIC CONCEPTS

 

327

   

B  COMMENTARY ON “RADIATION FROM MEDICAL PROCEDURES IN THE PATHOGENESIS OF CANCER AND ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE: DOSE-RESPONSE STUDIES WITH PHYSICIANS PER 100,000 POPULATION”

 

329

   

C  ISSUES RAISED BY THE INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH (IEER)

 

330

   

D  HORMESIS

 

332

   

E  FIFTEEN-COUNTRY WORKERS STUDY

 

336

 

 

REFERENCES

 

337

 

 

GLOSSARY

 

373

 

 

COMMITTEE BIOGRAPHIES

 

379

 

 

INDEX

 

385



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