SPECIAL REPORT 270

DETERRENCE, PROTECTION, AND PREPARATION

THE NEW TRANSPORTATION SECURITY IMPERATIVE

PANEL ON TRANSPORTATION

Committee on Science and Technology for Countering Terrorism

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Transportation Research Board

Washington, D.C.

2002

www.TRB.org



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Deterrence, Protection, and Preparation: The New Transportation Security Imperative SPECIAL REPORT 270 DETERRENCE, PROTECTION, AND PREPARATION THE NEW TRANSPORTATION SECURITY IMPERATIVE PANEL ON TRANSPORTATION Committee on Science and Technology for Countering Terrorism TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Transportation Research Board Washington, D.C. 2002 www.TRB.org

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Deterrence, Protection, and Preparation: The New Transportation Security Imperative TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD SPECIAL REPORT 270 Transportation Research Board publications are available by ordering individual publications directly from the TRB Business Office, through the Internet at www.TRB.org or national-academies.org/trb, or by annual subscription through organizational or individual affiliation with TRB. Affiliates and library subscribers are eligible for substantial discounts. For further information, contact the Transportation Research Board Business Office, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 (telephone 202-334-3213; fax ; or e-mail TRBsales@nas.edu). Copyright 2002 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to the procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING–IN–PUBLICATION DATA National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Science and Technology for Countering Terrorism. Panel on Transportation. Deterrence, protection, and preparation : the new transportation security imperative / Panel on Transportation: Science and Technology for Countering Terrorism. p. cm.—(Special report ; 270) “Transportation Research Board, National Research Council.” ISBN 0-309-07710-9 1. Terrorism—Prevention—Government policy—United States. 2. Transportation— Security measures—United States. I. National Research Council (U.S.). Transportation Research Board. II. Title. III. Special report (National Research Council (U.S.). Transportation Research Board) ; 270. HV6432 .N385 2002 363.12—dc21 2002074037

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Deterrence, Protection, and Preparation: The New Transportation Security Imperative THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicinewas established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both the Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Boardis a division of the National Research Council, which serves the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering. The Board’s mission is to promote innovation and progress in transportation by stimulating and conducting research, facilitating the dissemination of information, and encouraging the implementation of research results. The Board’s varied activities annually engage more than 4,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

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Deterrence, Protection, and Preparation: The New Transportation Security Imperative COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR COUNTERING TERRORISM Lewis M. Branscomb, Harvard University, Co-chair Richard D. Klausner, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Co-chair John D. Baldeschewieler, California Institute of Technology Barry R. Bloom, Harvard School of Public Health L. Paul Bremmer III, Marsh and McLennan Companies, Inc. William F. Brinkman, Lucent Technologies (retired) Ashton B. Carter, Harvard University Charles B. Curtis, Nuclear Threat Initiative Mortimer L. Downey, PBConsult Richard L. Garwin, Council on Foreign Relations Paul H. Gilbert, Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade and Douglas M. R. C. Greenwood, University of California, Santa Cruz Margaret A. Hamburg, Nuclear Threat Initiative William Happer, Princeton University John Hennessy, Stanford University Joshua Lederberg, Sackler Foundation at the Rockefeller University Thomas C. Shelling, University of Maryland Maxine F. Singer, Carnegie Institution of Washington Neil J. Smelser, University of California, Berkeley (retired) Philip M. Smith, McGeary & Smith P. Roy Vagelosi, Merck and Co., Inc. (retired) Vincent Vitto, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Inc. George M. Whitesides, Harvard University R. James Woolsey, Jr., Shea & Gardner

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Deterrence, Protection, and Preparation: The New Transportation Security Imperative COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR COUNTERING TERRORISM: PANEL ON TRANSPORTATION Mortimer L. Downey, PBConsult, Panel Chair H. Norman Abramson, Southwest Research Institute Lisa M. Bendixen, ICF Consulting Services, LLC Anthony J. Broderick, Federal Aviation Administration (retired) Noel K. Cunningham, Port of Los Angeles John J. Fearnsides, George Mason University CDR Stephen E. Flynn, U.S. Coast Guard Francis B. Francois, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (retired) Ernest R. Frazier, Sr., National Railroad Passenger Corporation Robert E. Gallamore, Northwestern University Henry L. Hungerbeeler, Missouri Department of Transportation Brian M. Jenkins, RAND Corporation Daniel Murray, ATA Foundation Edmond L. Soliday, United Airlines (retired) Richard A. White, Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority James A. Wilding, Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL STAFF Thomas R. Menzies, Jr., Senior Program Officer, Transportation Research Board

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Deterrence, Protection, and Preparation: The New Transportation Security Imperative PREFACE The September 11, 2001, attacks galvanized the nation to strengthen its counterterrorism defenses. Immediately following the attacks, the presidents of the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and Institute of Medicine wrote to President Bush offering the advice of the National Academies on how best to harness the country’s science and technology capacity to meet critical security and antiterrorism needs. In December 2001, the National Academies appointed a committee of 24 of the country’s leading scientific, engineering, medical, and public policy experts to offer counsel on an integrated science and technology plan for combating terrorism. To supplement the knowledge of its members, the committee convened eight panels with expertise in specific topic areas, from the chemical and biological disciplines to the domains of energy, information technology, and transportation. Mortimer L. Downey, a member of the main committee, led the Transportation Panel, which comprised 17 experts in transportation operations, engineering, and administration; research and technology; and safety, security, and law enforcement. The main committee’s report, Making the Nation Safer: The Role of Science and Technology in Countering Terrorism, was released on June 25, 2002. The committee recommends a strategy whereby the nation’s scientific and engineering capacity can be strengthened and brought to bear in the fight against terrorism. Making the Nation Safer synthesizes the contributions of the eight expert panels into chapters, each containing specific research and policy recommendations. The Transportation Panel’s contribution (Chapter 7 of Making the Nation Safer) is reprinted in this Transportation Research Board (TRB) Special Report to provide for more direct dissemination within the transportation research, operations, and policy-making communities. The executive summary of Making the Nation Safer is reprinted in the appendix to the present report.

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Deterrence, Protection, and Preparation: The New Transportation Security Imperative The Transportation Panel convened twice and communicated by e-mail and conference calls over a 5-month period. During its two meetings, the panel received briefings on the security-related research and development (R&D) activities of most of the modal agencies within the U.S. Department of Transportation. Thanks are due to Steven Ditmeyer, Federal Railroad Administration; James O’Steen and Frits Wybenga, Research and Special Programs Administration; David Price and Michael Trentacoste, Federal Highway Administration; Douglas McKelvey, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration; Lyle Malotky, Federal Aviation Administration; William Siegel, Federal Transit Administration; Captain James Evans, U.S. Coast Guard; and Richard John and Michael Dinning, Volpe National Transportation Systems Center. Thomas G. Day, Vice President for Engineering, U.S. Postal Service, also joined in the panel’s deliberations, making valuable contributions to the discussion. The panel met with other experts outside government as well. Joseph Del Balzo, JDA Aviation Technology Solutions, reviewed technological possibilities for computerized prescreening of passenger traffic to enhance aviation security. Thomas Hartwick discussed the state of technologies and systems with the potential to improve aviation security. Raja Parasuraman, Catholic University, and Victor Riley, Honeywell Inc., addressed the role of human factors in the design, development, and deployment of security technologies and systems. The panel extends its gratitude to all four for their valuable contributions. In addition, the panel wishes to thank Stephen McHale, Deputy Under Secretary for Transportation Security, and Paul Busick, Acting Associate Administrator for Civil Aviation Security. Both briefed the panel on the status of the newly created Transportation Security Administration and welcomed the ideas and comments of panel members. The panel’s contribution was reviewed as part of the main committee’s report by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the insti-

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Deterrence, Protection, and Preparation: The New Transportation Security Imperative tution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. The full listing of the reviewers of the main committee’s report is provided in Making the Nation Safer. Several of these reviewers were selected because of their transportation expertise. Special appreciation is expressed to the following reviewers: Lillian C. Borrone, Port Commerce Department, Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (retired); Lester A. Hoel, L. A. Lacy Distinguished Professor of Engineering, University of Virginia; Donald E. Brown, Professor and Chair, Department of Systems Engineering, University of Virginia; and Joseph M. Sussman, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Although these individuals provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse findings and conclusions, nor did they see the final document before its release. The review was overseen by R. Stephen Berry, James Franck Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus, University of Chicago, and Gerald P. Dinneen, Retired Vice President of Science and Technology, Honeywell Inc. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for content rests entirely with the authors and the institution. Thomas R. Menzies, Jr., managed the panel’s work under the guidance of the panel and the supervision of Stephen R. Godwin, Director of Studies and Information Services, TRB. Suzanne Schneider, Associate Executive Director of TRB, assisted with the review process. This manuscript was edited by Rona Briere and prepared for publication by Alisa Decatur under the supervision of Nancy Ackerman, Director, Reports and Editorial Services, TRB. Jocelyn Sands directed project support staff. Special thanks go to Amelia Mathis and Frances Holland for assistance with meeting arrangements and correspondence with the panel.

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Deterrence, Protection, and Preparation: The New Transportation Security Imperative DEDICATION The Transportation Panel is indebted to the work of earlier NRC committees. In particular, the 1999 NRC report Improving Surface Transportation Security: A Research and Development Strategy helped shape the panel’s thinking on the need for a systems approach to transportation security and a congruent research and development strategy. A key member of the NRC committee that produced Improving Surface Transportation Security, Fred V. Morrone, Director of Public Safety and Superintendent of Police for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, died on September 11, 2001, while responding to the World Trade Center attacks. The panel undertook its effort in memory of Superintendent Morrone.

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Deterrence, Protection, and Preparation: The New Transportation Security Imperative CONTENTS     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW   9 2   TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR SECURITY   12      Key Transportation System Characteristics   12      Implications for Security Strategies   15 3   EXAMPLES OF KEY RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY NEEDS   29      Systems-Level Research   29      Deterrence   34      Prevention   34      Monitoring and Mitigation   36      Response and Recovery   37      Investigation and Attribution   38 4   ADVICE TO TSA ON STRATEGIC RESEARCH AND PLANNING   40      Creating a Strategic Research and Planning Capacity   41      Marshaling R&D in Support of Transportation Security   43      A Technology Guidance and Evaluation Capacity   44 5   CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS   46     APPENDIX—MAKING THE NATION SAFER: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   48     TRANSPORTATION PANEL BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION   78

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